000
FXUS63 KLBF 280554
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1254 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this evening
   into tomorrow, with locally heavy rainfall (amounts up to
   1.00") as the primary threat. Hail cannot be ruled out,
   though confidence in any severe weather threat continues to
   wane.

-  A mix of rain and snow is possible across the western
   Sandhills early tomorrow morning, though no accumulations are
   expected.

-  Additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist nearly each
   day Tuesday and beyond, with any threat for severe weather
   uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Currently, the area sits in a postfrontal airmass, with widespread
low stratus and northeasterly winds. Temperatures have held in the
middle to upper 40s across much of the Sandhills and northern
Nebraska, with low to middle 50s in southwest Nebraska where some
clearing is occurring. To the south of the area, widespread
thunderstorm development is underway along a surface stationary
front, draped across central and western Kansas. Additional
thunderstorm development is underway across eastern Colorado near a
deepening surface low.

For the local area, the primary focus will be the ongoing convection
across eastern Colorado. High-res guidance continues to be in good
agreement with respect to the evolution of this, with it lifting
northward with time into northwest Kansas. The environment
across southwest Nebraska continues to look very unfavorable for
any robust convection to persist into the local area, with
MUCAPE values of 0 along and north of HWY 34. This points to any
thunderstorms that survive the trek into northwest Kansas
quickly waning as they enter southwest Nebraska this evening.
Still, showers should overspread areas near and east of HWY 83
from south to north this evening, gradually ending near
midnight.

After midnight, the upper low will begin to eject eastward across
the area, with increasing precipitation in the deformation axis
across western Nebraska as FGEN increases aloft. This precipitation
shield should then slowly translate from west to east across the
area early tomorrow morning, persisting through much of the
afternoon. As temperatures fall overnight, cannot totally rule
out some wet snow mixing into the rain west of HWY 61, though
very warm ground should inhibit any accumulation. Any threat
from this looks to be tied to any visibility reductions at snow
falls. The persistent rain tomorrow will keep high temperatures
only in the 40s to low 50s across the area along with breezy
northeast winds, setting up a dreary end to the weekend.
Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50-1.00" are expect for
areas east of HWY 61, with the higher end amounts (closer to
1.00") near and east of HWY 83. Amounts of 

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion