467
FXUS63 KLBF 170813
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today with a Red Flag Warning in
  effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Gusty northwest winds late this this morning through the afternoon
  into the early evening.

- Temperatures will rebound Friday into Saturday with lower 90s
  forecast for SW Nebraska.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Friday night with a
  decent threat for severe storms Saturday.

- A more active pattern will continue into early next week with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
  be fairly mild with daily highs in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the critical fire
weather concern today and the strong northwest winds. Early this
morning, generally before sunrise there will be some weak
convection developing along a boundary across the northern
Sandhills. At this time it looks to remain mainly rain showers,
however there is the potential there could be an isolated
thunderstorm, but no severe weather is expected. Showers will be
scattered in nature, not expecting much more than trace amounts
of precipitation accumulation with shower activity as dewpoints
are in the 40s.

Late this morning drier air mass being the frontal boundary moving
east into the area will spread dewpoints even lower, into the 30s
well east into portions of central and north central Nebraska by
Wednesday afternoon. Min RH values will dip down into the teens for
most of the Sandhills and western Nebraska with 20 to 25 percent
across the western portions of north central Nebraska. Winds will
increase by late morning as good mixing is expected, bufkit
soundings show very strong winds aloft in the mid levels around 55
to 70 kts, bringing sfc wind gusts up to 45 to 50kts in some
locations. The strongest winds will be across western Nebraska. The
combination of strong winds and low humidity will lead to critical
fire weather concerns across all of western and north central
Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon through 9pm
CDT today. As winds decouple in the evening, the strong winds will
subside fairly quickly.

For Thursday and Friday, northwest flow aloft is expected with a
ridge out to the west Thursday, moving slightly eastward into the
High Plains on Friday. Temperatures will warm into the 80s by
Friday, with the nose of 850 temps around 20 to 25 pushing in across
southwest Nebraska, will see highs reach the 90s there. As far as
precipitation chances on Thursday and Friday, expect mostly dry
conditions, there may be a slight chance for convection late evening
into the overnight Friday, at this time confidence is low in
convection during the evening, with better confidence in showers and
thunderstorm activity after midnight, mainly elevated in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface high pressure will drop south across the mid
Mississippi Valley Friday shifting winds to the south. This will
begin to advect modest amounts of low level moisture into
western Nebraska Friday. By afternoon, dew points will reach
into the middle 40s to around 50 in SW Nebraska. The moisture
advection, coupled with modest southerly winds (10 to 20 MPH)
should limit fire weather concerns Friday. Thanks to the
southerly winds, low level warm air advection will also push
north into the area with afternoon highs rebounding into the 80s
to around 90 across the forecast area. This is a 5 to 10 degree
warmup from Thursday`s forecast of upper 70s to lower 80s.
Beginning Friday night, a disturbance will lift east of
California into the Great Basin. This will induce surface
cyclogenesis off to the west of the forecast area. Low level
moisture advection will continue into Friday night, thanks to a
30+ KT low level jet which develops from western Kansas into
western Nebraska. By Saturday morning, dew points will reach
well into the 50s across the entire forecast area. As surface
low pressure deepens across northeastern Colorado Saturday, a
warm front is progged to extend east northeast of this feature
into Nebraska. Decent southerly winds will continue to force low
level moisture into the area Saturday. By afternoon, dew points
will reach into the lower 60s across the area. By afternoon,
decent surface heating over northeastern Colorado, NW Kansas and
SW Nebraska will push highs into the lower 90s. The California
disturbance (mentioned above) will cross the Rockies Saturday,
approaching the high plains Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours steepening mid level lapse rates. This will lead to
thunderstorm initiation during the late afternoon hours. As this
activity tracks east, it will encounter decent low level level
moisture and storm coverage is expected to become more
widespread. Deep layer shear in the latest GFS soln is on the
order of 40 to 50 KTS Saturday evening which will support
supercell thunderstorms. In addition to large hail and a
damaging wind threat, GFS forecast sounding hodographs across SW
Nebraska Saturday afternoon indicate decent low level curvature
and strong low level directional shear, so a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out- especially if a warm front is draped across
the forecast area. In addition to the hazards listed above,
there is decent potential for heavy rain Saturday night.
Forecast PWATS Saturday evening reach 1.5+ inches across all but
west of highway 61. For KLBF the daily max for PW is 1.54
inches Saturday with the 90th %ile being 1.21 inches. The
forecast of 1.5+ inches in the latest GFS soln is concerning for
heavy rain Saturday night and will mention this in the HWO this
morning along with the standard large hail, damaging winds and
tornado verbiage. A decent H5 low will track southeast from the
Arrowhead of Minnesota into the eastern Great Lakes late
Saturday night into Sunday forcing a back door cold front into
the forecast area. Sunday looks to be much cooler with highs in
the 70s and a threat for rainfall across the forecast area. A
second upper level trough will traverse southern Canada Monday
night into Tuesday, forcing a secondary shot of cooler air into
the forecast area. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s
with a continued threat for precipitation both days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2026

Expect VFR conditions at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals over
the next 24 hours. There will be a minor threat for
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the KVTN terminal from 06z to
10z tonight. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop overnight
and will continue through early evening Wednesday. Wind gusts
will approach 40+ KTS at the KVTN terminal during the afternoon
hours Wednesday. Expect wind gusts of 35 to 40 KTS at the KLBF
terminal during the same time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Passage of a cold front by daybreak is expected across the
area. Behind the front, strong northwesterly winds will develop
today through mid evening. The latest deterministic models along
with the NBM ensemble, continues to indicate good potential for
wind gusts in the 40 to 50 MPH range this afternoon, generally
along and north of I-80. Even south of this route, the potential
for wind gusts to eclipse 30 MPH is 70 to 90%. Thanks to
northwesterly winds, drier air will push into the forecast area
this afternoon with dew points reaching into the lower to middle
30s. Minimum RH this afternoon will reach 15 to 25 percent with
wind gusts ranging from 35 to 50 MPH across the area.

Recent contact with fuel partners across the FA indicate fuels are
partially cured and will burn under favorable conditions. Given the
forecast wind gusts this afternoon and the minimum RH forecast,
decided to upgrade the fire weather watch to a red flag warning from
Noon through 9 PM CDT today.

Beyond today, Thursday will feature cooler temperatures, higher
relative humidities and lighter winds which will limit overall fire
weather concerns. Winds will shift around to the south Friday,
forcing low level moisture into the area. Winds Friday may gust to
around 20 MPH with minimum RH of 25 to 35 percent across the area
producing possibly elevated fire weather conditions in SW Nebraska.
ATTM, the threat for any fire weather headlines for Friday appears
low. After Friday, a more active pattern will commence across the
area. Low level moisture will increase along with the threat for
daily precipitation chances, limiting fire weather concerns.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion