494
FXUS63 KLBF 150745
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
145 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect gusty southerly winds today with highs in the lower to middle
  50s.

- Fog potential will increase in some western areas tonight into Monday
  morning.

- Temperatures will be warmer on Monday with readings in the middle
  to upper 50s.

- Above normal temperatures continue Tuesday and Wednesday across
  western and north central Nebraska

- Another system moves in end of the week with another chance
  for precipitation across the forecast area&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern continued across the CONUS
tonight. High amplitude ridging extended from the Arklatex, north
into central and northern Manitoba. East of this feature, a broad
trough of low pressure was present over the eastern third of the
CONUS. Within this trough, closed low pressure was located over New
England. West of the ridge, a shortwave trough extended from western
Montana, south into northern Utah, then southeast into northern New
Mexico. Current Satellite imagery has the New Mexico shortwave over
portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern portions of the
panhandle of Texas. West of the intermountain trough, a low
amplitude ridge was present from near Reno Nevada, north into
eastern Oregon. Northwest of this feature, closed low pressure was
located approximately 300 miles off the west central coast of
British Columbia. Earlier this evening, a broad area of light
precipitation was noted over western Kansas. This activity was
tracking north into extreme SW Nebraska. However, little or no
precipitation was reaching the ground in our far southern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The upper level disturbance, over the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, will track to the southeast today along the Red
River ending up northeast of Dallas TX by 00z Monday. The threat
for precipitation will shift well south of the area today,
however, gusty southerly winds and decent low level moisture,
will remain across most of the forecast area today. This will
lead to continuation of cloud cover from southern, into central
and eastern portions of the forecast area through midday. With
a cool airmass already in place, highs this afternoon will
struggle to reach 50 in these areas. For locations over the west
and northwest, highs may actually reach into the middle 50s as
cloud cover is expected to erode this morning. With surface high
pressure off to the east and a developing surface trough
present from eastern Wyoming, south to the Denver area, a decent
pressure gradient will set up this afternoon across the area.
Forecast soundings indicate decent gust potential of 30 to 40
MPH in the Sandhills and northern portions of the forecast area
this afternoon. This is echoed by the latest NBM ensembles which
have a 60 to 80 percent chance of wind gusts reaching 40 MPH
this afternoon. When the gust threshold is raised up to 45 MPH,
the probabilities fall to near zero. That being said, feel
confident with the current forecast of 30 to 40 MPH wind gusts
in the Sandhills today. Cooler readings over the southern
forecast area, would favor lower wind gusts this afternoon.
Tonight the surface trough will track east into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Along and immediately east of this feature, the high
res HRRR, CONSshort, and RRFS solns do develop fog across the
western Sandhills, southeastern Panhandle and far SW Nebraska
later tonight. Fog was inserted into the forecast for tonight,
however, how low visibilities go down and whether or not fog
headlines will be needed, is yet to be determined. Warmer air in
association with the surface trough will push east on Monday.
This will lead to highs in the middle 50s in the east and
southeastern portion of the forecast area, with readings around
60 in the west and northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A ridge continue to trek eastward Tuesday across the Central CONUS
with southwesterly flow and WAA in place, keeping temperatures in
the 50s Tuesday. Wednesday a cold front advances into the area, will
see compressional heating aiding in temperatures ahead of the front
rising into the low 60s. As the front passes through the area
winds will be breezy and switch to the northwest. Winds of 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. Precipitation
chances will remain low despite the passage of the front.

Although guidance still points to another system moving into the
Central Plains by the end of the week, uncertainties still remain.
The track has changed from each model run. Some of the runs have
shown the system tracking further south as a closed low system,
however the latest run as move the track further north in more of an
open wave pattern. The inconsistencies have led to lower confidence
on both track and strength of the system and precipitation chances.
For now continue to keep the potential for widespread precipitation
in the forecast, however this may change as the week progresses and
the models become more in consensus with a solution on the track,
timing and strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low clouds will persist through the overnight with MVFR
conditions. Clouds will clear across portions of north central
Nebraska and VFR conditions will return by late morning. Across
western and southwest Nebraska lower cigs will continue to
persist through the day into Sunday evening with MVFR
conditions. Winds will be breezy by mid-morning out of the south
to southwest around 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion