827
FXUS63 KLBF 162332
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
532 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop across portions of western and southwest Nebraska
tomorrow afternoon. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Red
Flag Warning is in effect for areas west of HWY 83 tomorrow.
- Critical fire conditions are expected to develop further east
across much of the Sandhills, central, and north central
Nebraska tomorrow. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas
near and east of HWY 83.
- A fast moving system will bring a threat for accumulating
snowfall Thursday, primarily north of Interstate 80. At this
time, snowfall amounts remain uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
The primary concern for the short term will revolve around extremely
critical fire weather concerns Tuesday. Additional details will be
contained in the fire weather section below.
Currently, temperatures have climbed into the 60s across the area
under mostly sunny skies. Winds are light from the south, at 5 to 10
miles per hour, with weak surface high pressure centered over
western Nebraska.
For tomorrow, attention turns to a fast moving upper low, as it
ejects east out of California tonight and into the Rockies tomorrow
morning. As this upper low approaches from the west, strong surface
cyclogenesis gets underway across eastern Colorado and Wyoming. As
the aforementioned upper low ejects into the Dakotas by
tomorrow evening, the associated surface low will push east
across portions of southern South Dakota and western Nebraska.
This low looks to be anomalously deep, with ensemble means
approaches and even falls well beneath the 1st percentile climo.
This anomalously strong low (sub- 990mb) will quickly progress
across the area tomorrow afternoon, with strong westerly
downslope flow establishing in its wake. This strong westerly
flow will promote deep diurnal mixing, enabling high
temperatures to soar to near record highs (upper 60s to 70s)
across much of the area. Unfortunately this will also push
humidity values into the 10 to 15 percent range and set the
stage for critical to extremely critical fire weather concerns.
The area of greatest concerns continues to be across western
Nebraska, where the greatest overlap in strong winds (west gusts
50-55mph) and humidity (10-15%) exists. In fact, western and
southwest Nebraska is outlooked for Extremely Critical fire
concerns from the Storm Prediction Center, which is
exceptionally rare for our area. The last time the North Platte
CWA was outlooked for Extremely Critical was April 14, 2015,
over 10 years ago. Add in the ongoing drought and receptive
fuels, and a high-end fire weather day looks to be on tap for
tomorrow. Forecast soundings indicate dry adiabatic lapse rates
through much of the vertical column, supporting the notion of
instability being present for any fire starts.
With this thinking in mind, have opted for a Particularly Dangerous
Situation Red Flag Warning for fire weather zones 204 and 210, which
encompasses the eastern Panhandle, western Sandhills, and portions
of southwest Nebraska. Any fire starts tomorrow will be extremely
difficult to control, and caution should be exercised around any
activities that could cause sparks.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected for areas further
east, with westerly gusts of 35 to 45 miles per hour, very low
humidity, and near record temperatures also expected. Dangerous fire
weather conditions are expected for all of western and north central
Nebraska tomorrow. To add to the concern, very poor humidity
recovery is expected tomorrow night into Wednesday, only to 35 to 50
percent across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Elevated to near critical fire concerns may linger into Wednesday,
as temperatures remain well above average (50s to low 60s) and
humidity again falls into the teens to lower 20s. That said, the
limiting factor looks to be winds at this point, as winds begin to
weaken during the afternoon behind the departing surface low. Still,
trends will need to be monitored closely for additional fire
weather headlines Wednesday afternoon.
Attention then turns to a quick moving system that is expected to
impact the area on Thursday. Aloft, a shortwave will eject east
across the Rockies Wednesday evening, reaching western Nebraska by
early Thursday morning. At the surface, a low will push east out of
northeastern Colorado, and roughly along the Kansas/Nebraska border
through the day Thursday. To the north of this low, broad easterly
upslope flow should promote increasing precipitation coverage by
late morning, and through much of the afternoon and evening. Cold
air looks to quickly move south into the area Thursday, and guidance
points towards a clean and quick transition of precipitation from
rain to snow by late Thursday morning. All snow is then expected
through the day Thursday, before the system begins to quickly depart
by Friday morning. The deterministic suite suggests increasing
mesoscale ascent as well, with a band of heavier snow possible
somewhere across the area. Guidance remains somewhat at odds with
where the heaviest snow is preferred, though ensemble means
continue to suggest this is in areas north of Highway 2. It is
in this area across northern Nebraska where amounts have been
slowly creeping upwards over the past few guidance cycles.
Though confidence in impacts remains low for now, this would
suggest a threat for both accumulating snow and gusty northerly
winds as the system passes just off to our south on Thursday.
With a lack of snowfall so far this winter, this would be
welcomed moisture for much of the Sandhills and northern
Nebraska. Trends will need to be monitored closely, and future
headlines may be needed should confidence in accumulating
snowfall continues to grow.
Light snow is again possible on Saturday as another weak surface low
pushes across the area, though confidence in this remains low and
any impacts look to remain limited at best. Temperatures are then
expected to slowly moderate back to above average by early next
week, as upper ridging amplifies yet again across the western
CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will
remain calm out of the southeast at 5 to 10 kts through the evening
hours. Southwesterly LLWS is expected to develop for all terminals
overnight, persisting into late tomorrow morning. Winds will then
shift more westerly and quickly strengthen tomorrow afternoon, with
widespread wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts with higher gusts
expected along and west of a line from KIML to KGRN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026
Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
Tuesday across western and southwest Nebraska. A combination of
near record temperatures (60s to 70s), strong west winds gusting
50 to 55 miles per hour, and humidity as low as 10 to 15 percent
is expected Tuesday, especially near and west of HWY 61. In
addition, an unstable atmosphere will support large fire growth.
This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation across the western
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, and any fire starts will be
extremely difficult to control.
Further east, critical fire weather concerns are expected to
develop Tuesday, with near record temperatures (70s), strong west
winds gusting 35 to 45 miles per hour, and humidity as low as 10
to 20 percent. Any fire starts will be very difficult to control
across all of western and north central Nebraska.
Additional fire concerns may linger into Wednesday, though winds
look to be slightly weaker (20-25 mph) from the west Wednesday
afternoon. A storm system is then expected to move through the
area on Thursday, brining lesser fire concerns and a threat for
accumulating snowfall. Fire concerns may remain low into late
week and next weekend, dependent on where and how much snow falls
across the area on Thursday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM
MST/ Tuesday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler/MRS
FIRE WEATHER...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion