302
FXUS63 KLBF 180959
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
359 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence in a winter system impacting the Sandhills
  and north central Nebraska Thursday with the potential for
  accumulating snow.

- Low to moderate confidence in colder temperatures for the end
  of the week resulting in wind chills into the negative single
  digits.

- Another weak system could bring some light snow to portions southwest
  Nebraska Friday night.

- Below normal weekend temperatures will give way to a warming
  trend the first of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Quiet conditions continue through today as upper level ridging
slowly slides off to the east. This will allow for another warm,
above normal day across the region. Expect highs to rise into the
50s across much of the region with temperatures even hitting the low
60s across portions of southwest and into central Nebraska.
Increasing clouds are expected by late afternoon in advance of the
next weather system.

The main weather concern in the short term will be the winter storm
arriving on Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday night.
Precipitation will arrive across the Panhandle this evening and
spread eastward. With warmer temperatures, there precipitation will
likely start as rain, before changing over to rain/snow and
eventually all snow after Midnight Thursday morning. At this time,
there is still some concern on where the heaviest snowfall will
occur. With a overall slight southward shift in many of the models,
have trended snowfall a little further south with the highest
snowfall focused mainly over the Thedford area but also spreading
out generally along Highway 2. In this heaviest swath of snow,
potential accumulations up to 7 to 8 inches, even locally up to 9
inches, will be possible. Points south of Highway 2 have also seen
an increase in snow totals with accumulations up to 3 to 5 inches as
far south as I-80. Snow tapers to the north as well with only up to
3 inches near the South Dakota border. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
this area of highest snow shift a bit more, though, in either
direction as uncertainty remains quite high. After collaboration
with neighboring offices and WPC, have agreed to expand the
going Winter Weather Watch into the next row of counties to the
south to account for the southward shift.

There is also some concern that accumulations may be more difficult
to begin as we`ve had several above normal days for the past week or
so. Frost depth remains virtually non-existant indicating a warm
ground which may limit snowfall accumulations at first. Still with
snowfall rates of a inch an hour at certain times in the event, this
will become a non-factor eventually. Regardless of how much snow
will fall, there is the added hazard of some very strong winds with
this system. Northerly gusts up to 40 mph are expected with this
system by Thursday morning which will add an additional layer of
concern with a blowing and drifting snow potential. The strongest
winds are expected during the day on Thursday which will correlate
when the heaviest snow will also fall resulting in widespread
visibility restrictions. Winds will not decrease until the system
begins to push out of the region Thursday evening which is also the
same time that snow begins to diminish.

High pressure begins to build southward into the region on Thursday
night bringing a return to drier weather for the end of the week.
This high will also usher in much colder air behind the departing
system. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the single digits with
wind chill values dropping into the negative single digits. While
not close to headline criteria, this cold air combined with recent
snowfall will make for some bitter conditions Thursday night and
into Friday morning. Highs on Friday will struggle to rise above
freezing with most locations seeing temperatures only in the upper
20s to low 30s. If anywhere can see highs rise into the mid 30s it
will be across extreme southwest Nebraska where potentially only
little snowfall will fall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026


Friday night, deterministic models indicate a quick moving but
weakening shortwave crossing the area. Ensemble probabilities
(ENS suite in particular) has shifted a bit northward with the
light QPF amounts. Chances have increase some for light snow for
western and southwest Nebraska. Again, though, the system will
be in a weakening state and amount any snow accumulation amounts
look to remain light.

Surface high pressure shifts southeast of the area Saturday
with low-level flow becoming light westerly. Weak warm air
advection and modest downslope flow will support somewhat of a
moderation in temperatures. Appears even with the moderation,
temperatures will remain just below average, with the warmest
readings (lower 40s) across far southwest Nebraska.

Sunday into Monday, another arctic high will settle southward
into the area Sunday in the wake of the departing shortwave.
Highs Sunday have trended down, with the latest guidance from
both ensemble suites (ENS/GEFS) continuing to favor the colder
temperatures. Ridging aloft begins to build eastward Sunday
night into Monday. Return southerly flow and warm air advection
at the surface should begin a moderation in temperatures the
first of next week. Highs by Tuesday should be back to well
above normal, with lower to mid 60s possible across southwest
Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low-level wind shear will decrease through the early morning
hours today (Wednesday). Surface winds will also diminish to
around 10-15 kts from the west through the day. A shift in winds
occurs tonight to the east/northeast as low pressure develops
off to the west. VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
again today across western and north central Nebraska. A period of
gusty northwest winds will increase mid to late morning across
north central Nebraska. These winds will decrease through the
afternoon. Humidity values will again be very low this
afternoon, 15-20% area-wide, but the lowest humidity will be
observed while winds are in the process of decreasing. The
overlap of the stronger winds and lower humidity values should
remain brief as winds decrease through the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday
afternoon for NEZ004-005-023>027-035>038-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion