250
FXUS63 KLBF 291142
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog develops later tonight across the west and south
lasting into Friday morning. Shower chance will also increase
Friday afternoon and evening, with a few thunderstorms also
possible.
- Mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and much of
Sunday, with highs generally in the lower to middle 60s.
Rainfall chances increase Sunday night into Monday morning.
- A strong storm system may impact the region Monday into
Tuesday, bringing additional precipitation chances and
potentially strong northwest winds. Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding the storm track and overall evolution of the
system.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Today and Tonight...A closed low will persist of the coast of the
Pacific Northwest as the main upper trough persists along the West
Coast. This will bring an increase in southwesterly flow aloft to
the region as a shortwave trough lifts through eastern New Mexico
and west Texas by late tonight. A warm front is forecast to develop
across west central into north central KS this afternoon, where
showers and a few thunderstorms may develop. Highs today should be
rather uniform from 60 to 65 degrees across the forecast area as
winds return to the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph in the
afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph across the northwest Sandhills.
The warm front will lift north tonight, with a slight chance for
showers across far southeastern areas. Stratus and patchy fog will
also develop across the western Sandhills, southwest and central NE
overnight. Light drizzle is also possible with bufkit soundings
indicating saturation up to 800mb, with drier air aloft. Skies will
become cloudy tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Friday and Friday night...Overcast skies in stratus on Friday as a
weak warm front lifts through southern NE. Patchy morning fog, and
possibly light drizzle in the west and south, with increasing shower
chances. Some elevated instability will support a slight chance for
thunderstorms southwest into central NE in the afternoon. Highs in
the upper 50s with low 60s far southern areas. The shortwave trough
will lift north from the Texas panhandle/western OK into southern KS
Friday, and from northern KS into central and eastern NE Friday
night. This will bring chance POPS to areas mainly east of Highway
83 overnight. Rainfall amounts look to be fairly light. NBM 24 hour
probability of greater than a tenth of an inch ending 12Z Saturday
is 60 percent Broken Bow through O`Neill and east, to only 30 to 40
percent further west to near Highway 83.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Saturday, a longwave trough will remain across the western United
States, gradually progressing eastward through the day. Ahead of
this trough, upper-level ridging will continue to amplify across the
northern Plains, resulting in height rises across the region.
Moisture advection will persist throughout the day, with PWAT values
ranging from 150 to 250 percent of normal for this time of year. A
weak southern-stream disturbance is expected to track just south of
the forecast area, though precipitation chances should remain low as
the better forcing for ascent remains displaced to the south. Given
the increased moisture within the lower to middle levels, along with
some weak synoptic-scale ascent, considerable cloud cover is
expected across the area Saturday. Highs should remain in the lower
60s across southern and eastern Nebraska, where the greatest cloud
cover is expected, with middle 60s farther northwest where more
clearing is possible. Overnight lows Saturday night should remain in
the middle to upper 40s, as persistent low-level moisture and cloud
cover limit radiational cooling.
Sunday, the western longwave trough is expected to evolve into a
closed upper-level low across the Desert Southwest, resulting in
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains.
Much of Sunday should remain dry, though increasing southeasterly
surface winds will support continued moisture advection, with
dewpoints potentially reaching the middle 50s by Sunday afternoon.
Considerable cloud cover is expected to persist, especially as
moisture continues to increase ahead of the approaching system. This
should limit daytime warming, with highs generally in the lower 60s
across the area. By Sunday evening into the overnight hours, model
guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet, increasing upper-
level divergence, and enhanced warm air advection and
frontogenetical forcing within the lower to middle levels. These
features, combined with increasing moisture transport ahead of a
developing lee-side surface low across the central High Plains,
should provide sufficient forcing for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area. Given the anomalously moist
air mass and potentially strong synoptic-scale ascent, locally heavy
rainfall may be possible, particularly where stronger forcing
becomes established. Instability currently appears limited,
partially due to relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak mid-
level lapse rates, which should keep the overall severe weather
threat low. However, with strong vertical wind shear expected, a few
stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially if sufficient
instability develops ahead of the surface low. Confidence is
increasing in more widespread precipitation Sunday night into Monday
morning, though uncertainty remains regarding the placement of the
heaviest rainfall.
Monday into the middle of next week, considerable uncertainty
remains regarding the evolution and eventual track of the upper-
level system. The GFS/GEFS suite continues to favor a stronger and
more northerly solution, while the ECMWF/EPS suite generally
supports a farther south track, which could limit precipitation
potential across portions of the forecast area beyond Monday
morning. Recent global model trends have also begun to suggest a
more pronounced split-flow pattern, with limited interaction between
the northern- and southern-stream disturbances. If this solution
materializes, the strongest upper-level forcing could remain
displaced north and south of the region, limiting the potential for
more widespread precipitation behind the surface low. In contrast,
previous model runs had suggested greater interaction between the
northern and southern streams, potentially resulting in a deeper and
more amplified storm system. Such a scenario could support stronger
forcing for ascent across the central Plains, including the
potential for a more organized deformation zone on the northwest
side of the system. This would favor a longer duration of
precipitation across portions of western and north-central Nebraska.
The strength and placement of the upper-level ridge across southern
Canada will also play an important role in the eventual track of the
system, as a stronger ridge could favor a farther south storm track
and potentially shift the greatest precipitation chances away from
the forecast area. Given these competing scenarios, confidence
remains low regarding precipitation coverage and duration Monday
into early next week. While confidence is increasing in widespread
precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning, the potential for
additional precipitation beyond that period remains considerably
more uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored as model
guidance begins to converge on a more consistent solution. In
addition to the precipitation potential, strengthening northwest
winds may become a concern Monday into Tuesday as the surface low
progresses eastward and the pressure gradient tightens across the
region. Depending on the strength and track of the surface low, wind
gusts exceeding 50 mph may be possible, though confidence in the
exact magnitude remains limited. Cooler temperatures are also
expected early next week, particularly north and west of the surface
low, as colder air moves into the region. However, a significant
intrusion of colder air is not currently favored, as the overall
upper-level pattern should continue to support a predominantly
Pacific air mass across the region, limiting the southward transport
of colder Canadian air. As a result, temperatures should remain near
normal for early November despite the expected cooling trend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the daytime on Thursday for
area terminals.
Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with only occasional passing
mid and high level clouds. Winds will gradually favor the south
with stronger gusts across northern Nebraska nearing 20 to 25
knots. Later tonight, low stratus will invade from the south and
should bring about degradation to MVFR and eventually IFR
conditions for southwest Nebraska. This will include the KLBF
airspace, though confidence in precise timing and magnitudes is
low at this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion