816
FXUS63 KLBF 170551
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1251 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect for all of western and portions of
  north central Nebraska Tuesday afternoon|

- Low chances for precipitation across far northern Nebraska
  overnight through Tuesday morning

- Gusty northwest winds Tuesday sustained at 15 to 25 mph with
  gust up to 45 mph

- Moderate to high confidence in dry conditions through the next
  weekend.

- High confidence in above normal, potentially record-breaking, high
  temperatures by late week and into the weekend.

- Low to moderate confidence in cooler temperatures returning by the
end of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The greatest concern in the short term will be the gusty winds and
dry conditions for Tuesday. There will also be a low chance for
precipitation across far northern Nebraska overnight into Tuesday
with the frontal passage, however forecaster confidence remains low
in this occurring. Several of the latest CAMs continue to back
off the precipitation chances for tonight and Tue. morning.
Capped PoPs at 35 percent tonight, with less than 25 percent
chance through the morning hours, with the greatest concern near
northwest Sandhills. Temperatures tonight will range from 10 to
20 degrees, warming to around 40 degrees by mid morning, thus
the main mode of precipitation will be all snow if anything does
fall overnight into early morning, then potential for very
light rain during the mid morning hours. Available moisture will
be very limited and thus even if precipitation is able to
"squeeze out" only trace qpf amounts are expected.

As far as the gusty winds for Tuesday, confidence continued to
increase in strong winds as suggest by bufkit soundings indicating
good mixing by the afternoon hours for all of western and north
central Nebraska. Winds will initially be out of the west in the
early morning hours then switch to the northwest and start to become
breezy by mid to late morning. The strongest winds are expected
across western Nebraska where gust up to 45 mph will be possible.
Given the the gusty winds combined with dry conditions a Red Flag
warning was issued for all of western Nebraska and portions of north
central Nebraska, see fire weather discussion below for more
information.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong upper level ridging will continue to build across the western
US by mid-week. This will allow for surface high pressure to push
back into the region bringing with it a return to dry and much
warmer conditions. Temperatures will gradually warm back up through
mid-week, with highs returning back into the mid 70s to low 80s by
Wednesday and rising into the 80s by Thursday and Friday. Current
thinking is that forecasted highs are still much to low for the end
of the week. Latest EFI remains high (0.8 to 0.9) with marginal SoT
(between 0 and 1) increasing confidence that more extreme,
potentially record-breaking, maximum temperatures may occur on
Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, EFI and SoT values increase even
higher with EFI values over 0.9 for portions of central and north
central Nebraska. Based on this probabilistic guidance, current
forecasted highs will need to rise several degrees as at least 90
degrees could be possible by Saturday, potentially even into the mid
90s. Latest probabilities support these higher than forecasted highs
as well as the potential to see over 90 degrees on Saturday is near
50 to 60 percent. The potential of seeing over 95 degrees is even
near 50 percent for areas south of I-80. Therefore, expect highs
through the end of next week and into the weekend to continue to
trend upwards over the next several days.

A cool front finally pushes into the region on Saturday night and
into Sunday. Unfortunately this front will not bring much in the way
of precipitation with current guidance suggesting any precipitation
remaining just to the north across South Dakota. This front will
bring some cooler, but still above normal, temperatures to the
region with highs only ranging from the mid 50s in northern Nebraska
to the low 60s south of I-80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Increasing cloud cover and the threat for light wintry
precipitation will be the main aviation concerns over the next
24 hours.

A passing warm front will promote light precipitation potential
for northern Nebraska towards daybreak Tuesday. This may fall as
SN and/or FZDZ but confidence in occurrence is low. Will insert
a brief mention, however, with minor impacts possible and amend
later as necessary. What appears more probable is low-end MVFR
and even IFR CIGs at VTN and will carry a short mention before
conditions return to VFR. Clouds should gradually scour out
during the late afternoon though skies will likely remain partly
to mostly cloudy into Tuesday evening. Have added a mention of
LLWS for both terminals as daytime gusty winds decrease at the
surface but winds off the surface persist through the end of the
period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion