444
FXUS63 KLBF 271115
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate confidence rain showers through through the morning.

- High confidence in patchy to areas of fog across through mid
  to late morning.

- Low confidence in rain returning tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward
throughout the overnight hours. Embedded thunderstorms are also
possible, but stronger or severe storms is not anticipated at this
time. Additional QPF through sunrise will generally remain less than
one tenth (0.10) of an inch, although, some locations across
northern Nebraska could see some heavier showers with up to 0.20
inches.

Increased moisture and calm winds will also allow for fog
development to continue across the region through mid-morning.
Visibility restrictions down to 1 mile will be possible at times,
but should remain fairly patchy, especially impacting low lying
areas and river valleys. Rapidly changing visibilities should be
expected before dissipating by late morning.

Weak ridging will allow for a brief dry period during the day today
and into early evening. Isolated showers are expected to develop off
the Front Range and push into southwest Nebraska late this evening.
There is a potential for some convection as well as showers, but
instability remains fairly weak across southwest Nebraska and into
the Panhandle. Therefore, not expecting any severe storms.

A better potential for showers arrives on Tuesday as a low pressure
system over Kansas develops. Being on the northern fringe of this
low, not expecting any thunderstorms or severe weather. The majority
of any precipitation associated with this system will be stratiform
in nature with QPF amounts generally under a quarter inch. There is
even a potential for some light snow across the Pine Ridge early
Tuesday before temperatures rise back above freezing. Any
accumulations will be under a half inch, but confidence in even
getting that is very low. Any precipitation will diminish Tuesday
evening as surface high pressure builds back into the region. With
clearing skies Tuesday night, low temperatures will drop into the
mid to upper 20s across the region. Not anticipating any freeze
headlines at this time, but will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Northwest flow establishes aloft into Wednesday, with an upper
trough moving southeast out of the Intermountain West and towards
the Four Corners. With the track of this trough well off to the west
of the area Wednesday into Thursday, guidance suggests any
precipitation will remain confined to portions of western and
southwest Nebraska. NBM probabilities continue to support this
notion, with probabilities of >0.10" Wednesday into Thursday peaking
at ~30-50% along and south of I-80. Forecast soundings support an
all rain p-type, and limited MUCAPE (~100-200 J/kg) suggest a threat
for isolated thunderstorms as well. Any precipitation is expected to
exit Thursday evening, with drier conditions returning for the
weekend and late week.

Heights begin to rise aloft by Friday, as an upper ridge axis begins
to translate east into the Plains by Saturday. This upper ridge
remains in place through Sunday, before guidance begins to differ in
synoptic evolution into early next week. With the area remaining
under the influence of this upper ridging, temperatures quickly
moderate back into the 70s by Saturday and Sunday. The return of
these warmer temperatures will push humidity values back into the
upper teens to 20s each afternoon this weekend, and could bring a
return of elevated fire weather concerns to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Low stratus with widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs will persist into this
afternoon, with brief improvements back to low-end VFR expected
this evening. Any VFR will remain short lived, as low stratus
again overspreads the area early Tuesday morning.

Lingering rain and patchy fog ends by late this morning, with
VFR visibilities for all terminals this afternoon and evening.
Additional rain moves into western/southwest Nebraska early
Tuesday morning, with a return of MVFR visibilities possible.

Winds strengthen from the northwest this morning, with
widespread gusts of 25 to 35kts expected this afternoon. Winds
weaken after sunset, becoming variable at 5kts or less
overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion