910
FXUS63 KLBF 140535
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain well above normal this weekend into the
  middle of next week. Forecast highs on Sunday are expected to
  challenge record high temperatures.

- The forecast is expected to remain mostly dry, outside of a
  low chance of precipitation across far southwest Nebraska
  tonight into Saturday morning. However, any precipitation is
  expected to be very light.

- Near critical to critical fire weather concerns return Sunday
  through Tuesday, with highest concerns expected on Sunday and
  Tuesday. The combination of well above seasonal temperatures,
  low relative humidity, and gusty winds will support fire
  growth and spread.

- Potential for some rain chances mid to late week. However,
  confidence remains lower at this time, given higher
  uncertainty in the track and timing of a low pressure system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

An upper level ridge is observed over the western United States,
with an upper level low tracking across the Gulf of California. This
large scale set up is bringing a stream of upper level and mid level
moisture across the southern Plains and into western Nebraska.
However, low level flow continues to bring fairly dry air across
most of the region. As the upper level low tracks across the
southern United States, a surface low is expected to track across
northern Oklahoma, with a mostly west to east oriented warm front.
This system is expected to bring a fairly expansive shield of
precipitation across most of Kansas overnight, with some of the
fringes of the system extending into portions of southwest Nebraska.
Latest deterministic model guidance tracks the low a bit further to
the south, which further limited precipitation potential across
southwest Nebraska this evening, so have lowered PoPs across most of
the region. Additionally, the lack of low level moisture will
further limit precipitation potential overnight, as precipitation
will be falling through dry layers of the environment. If the rain
can overcome this hostile environment overnight into Saturday
morning, some areas of far southwest Nebraska may end up with a few
hundredths of an inch of rainfall, with sprinkles potentially
further north, up to around the I-80 corridor.

As the system continues its eastward track, cloud cover is expected
to clear out quickly mid to late Saturday morning. This quick
clearing is expected to support warming temperatures Saturday
afternoon, with highs pushing into the 60s across most of the
region, or roughly 20 degrees above average. These anomalously high
temperatures will support low relative humidity values throughout
the afternoon, with minimum values approaching 20 percent. However,
with the system tracking out of the region, winds are expected to
remain light on Saturday, which will help limit larger fire weather
concerns for Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, however, near critical to critical fire weather conditions
are possible across the Panhandle, Sandhills, and southwest
Nebraska. Highs across the region on Sunday are expected to be
around 20 to 30 degrees above average, with highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. As of now, these forecast highs are expected to break
record high values, with record highs at North Platte and Valentine
being 67 and 66, respectively. These potentially record breaking
highs will also contribute to very low relative humidity values
across the region, especially across the Panhandle, Sandhills, and
southwest Nebraska, where relative humidity values could drop below
15 percent. Winds are expected to be out of the southwest, with
gusts of 25 to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. Given the higher confidence
in these conditions, have decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for
Sunday afternoon, as near critical to critical fire weather concerns
are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The warm temperatures remain on Monday, with highs still in the 60s
across most of the region. Again, these high temperatures will allow
for low relative humidity across the region, however, winds are
expected to remain on the lighter side Monday afternoon, which may
limit a larger fire weather concern. However, the warm temperatures
and low humidity may still cause elevated concerns at the very
least.

Attention turns to Tuesday, which looks to be the next day with
higher fire weather concerns. Another day of very warm high
temperatures is expected, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
As with the previous days, this will allow for low relative humidity
values across most of western Nebraska, potentially as low as 15
percent. The main thing to watch for on Tuesday is the track of a
low pressure system, which will have impact on winds and humidity.
Currently, the system is more favored to take a northerly track, and
while this would allow for stronger winds, this track also
introduces some precipitation chances across northern Nebraska. If
the low takes the currently favored northern track, this could bring
some slightly better humidity across the region, leaving winds as
the main driver of fire weather concerns.

However, there are also some more southerly solutions, which would
limit our ability for meaningful precipitation. If the southern
solution is realized, not only would stronger winds be expected
given the proximity of the low, but drier air may track across the
region. If this scenario is realized, then near critical to critical
fire weather concerns may be expected across most of western and
southwestern Nebraska. Will continue to closely monitor this set up
this weekend into next week, as the low track greatly changes
expected weather conditions.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, as with Tuesday, the exact track of the
low will be the main driver for Wednesday`s weather. However, one
thing that remains somewhat consistent in both solutions is the
tracking of a cold front across the region, ushering in cooler
temperatures and some chances for precipitation, specially across
western and northern Nebraska. For now, ensemble solutions remain
more pessimistic, generally around a 10 to 30 percent chance of
measureable rainfall for Wednesday night. Again will need to closely
monitor the track of the low, as much depends on its location.
However, before any potential precipitation Wednesday night, there
will again be a risk for elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns, given the warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty
winds. A little more question remains on the overlap of these
ingredients, as the track of the main low remains somewhat
uncertain.

By the end of the week, as an upper level trough tracks across the
western United States, a surface low is expected to track across the
Plains, and this is expected to bring our next chances of
precipitation. However, uncertainty remains in this track as well,
leading to a bit of a discrepancy in ensemble guidance. The European
ensemble tracks the low a bit further north, which brings greater
chances of precipitation late week, compared to the GEFS, which
tracks further south, bringing lower precipitation chances. However,
between these 2 ensembles, there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of
wetting precipitation across portions of the forecast region. Will
again need to keep an eye on this potential system, as the low`s
track will greatly determine our weather. However, something that
does remain consistent with this upper level trough is the return of
more seasonal high temperatures. In fact, highs by late week are
expected to return to the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is right
about normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Saturday. A mid-level cloud deck will
be located across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska through
sunrise Saturday. Thereafter, some fair weather cumulus clouds
will develop around 6000FT AGL late morning through the
afternoon hours. Clear skies are expected Saturday night. Winds
will remain light, 10 kts or less through Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for NEZ204-206-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion