419
FXUS63 KLBF 190548
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1148 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lows tonight will be cold with readings in the single digits
  to around zero. Wind chills will range from zero to 15 below
  zero Monday morning.

- Mainly dry forecast expected through Thursday night. There is
  a threat for light snow, mainly over northern Nebraska Friday
  through Saturday.

- Temperatures will be highly variable this week with the
  warmest days on Tuesday and Thursday. Much colder temperatures
  are expected next weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

H5 analysis this morning continues to show a highly amplified
pattern across the CONUS and Canada. Ridging extended up the
west coast of the CONUS, northwest into Alaska. East of this
feature, strong low pressure was located over Hudson Bay of
Canada. this was in association with a long wave trough of low
pressure across the eastern 3/4ths of Canada and the United
States. This trough extended all the way south to the bay of
Campeche. Within this trough a decent shortwave was noted over
western North Dakota this morning. At the surface...low pressure
was located over the arrowhead of Minnesota. An occluded front
extended south of the low into southeastern South Dakota where
it became a warm front south into eastern Nebraska. Across
central into west central South Dakota an arctic cold front was
present. South of this feature, over central Nebraska a pre
frontal trough (ie. wind shift line was the leading edge of
strong northwesterly winds vs. slower west-northwest winds).
This feature had tracked through most of western and north
central Nebraska as of 1 PM CT with wind speeds picking up
across the area. So far, the highest wind gust was at Broken Bow
just after passage of the surface trough at 61 MPH. Scattered
snow showers continue to impact locations roughly east of a line
from Merriman to Callaway. These showers have a history of
producing brief, high intensity snowfall. Based on highway cams,
snow accumulations on roadways have been mainly confined to
locations northeast of a Valentine to Burwell line where road
temperatures and air temperatures remain above freezing.
Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 32 degrees at Valentine
to 48 degrees at Imperial and Grant.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

With the bulk of the ongoing snow threat west of Boyd and Holt
Counties, have cancelled the winter weather advisory for those
areas. A back door arctic front, will push to the southwest
tonight from South Dakota into western and southwestern
Nebraska. This feature will be forced by a decent area of arctic
high pressure, which will travel from southern Saskatchewan
into northeastern Nebraska by 12z Monday. Northerly winds will
be gusty this evening, slowly diminishing overnight. With the
arctic high anchored over northeastern Nebraska Monday morning
and clearing skies, cold temperatures are likely with lows
bottoming out around zero in the northeastern portion of the
forecast area. With diminishing winds overnight, wind chills
will fall off to -10 to -15 degrees in the northeast. ATTM, not
planning on issuing any cold headlines as we should remain well
above the -20 degree threshold for such. High pressure will drop
south into eastern Kansas then Oklahoma on Monday. Winds will
shift around to the west by afternoon. However, H85 temps will
struggle to reach 0C in the far SW Monday afternoon. Even with
some limited mixing, highs will struggle to get out of the 30s
over SW Nebraska Monday. Further north and east, where the
arctic airmass will be entrenched, highs will struggle to reach
the lower to middle 20s over northeastern Nebraska. A second,
weaker area of high pressure will track across the eastern
Dakotas into western Iowa Monday night. This will bring a
reinforcing shot of cold air into northeastern portions of the
forecast area. However, with this being a weaker cold airmass,
arctic air should remain east of a Valentine to Broken Bow line.
Overnight lows will range from around 5 above in the northeast
to around 10 degrees over southwestern into western Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Arctic air will retreat northeast of the area Tuesday. At the
same time, surface low pressure will develop over the northern
high plains forcing a warm front into central and eastern
Nebraska Tuesday. This will result in highs ranging from the
middle 30s in the northeast to middle 50s in the southwest.
Based on forecast H85 temps at 21z Tuesday in the GFS and NAM12
soln from this morning, the NBM forecast appears on track. The
surface low will track from South Dakota into northern Iowa
Tuesday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area.
This will result in cooler readings for Wednesday with highs in
the lower 30s to middle 40s. Beyond Wednesday the deterministic
models re- establish the arctic airmass over the upper Midwest
into the Dakotas. This air eventually pushes south into the
Central Plains Thursday night. This will lead to colder
temperatures for Friday through the Weekend with highs Friday,
Saturday and Sunday being in the teens to 20s. There continues
to be a chance for snow next weekend with the latest NBM
forecast. However, looking at the probabilistic forecast, there
is only a 20-30 percent chance of measurable (0.01" or more) of
precipitation during this period). This doesn`t lend much
forecast confidence in the precipitation forecast for next
weekend. Temperatures are also problematic as well as there is a
decent spread in the 25th to 75th percentile for high
temperatures in the NBM beginning Friday. FWIW, forecast
confidence in the extended forecast for temperatures and
precipitation is fairly low with this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Breezy north winds will continue for the next few hours at area
terminals under passing high clouds. As winds being to decrease
towards daybreak, low stratus will form affecting initially southwest
Nebraska terminals before expanding elsewhere later in the
morning. Believe this could bring a brief period of MVFR CIGs
before conditions improve. Later tonight, low stratus and the
potential for fog could again bring degraded conditions but
confidence in precise impacts remains limited at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion