951
FXUS63 KLBF 251143
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of light precipitation, drizzle, and fog are possible
through Friday, with another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible Friday evening into Friday night,
favoring southwest into central Nebraska.
- Drier and warmer conditions return Saturday, with highs
rebounding into the 70s to lower 80s.
- A dry Sunday will give way to another round of potential
rainfall Monday afternoon and Monday night. Another system
mid- week (Wednesday and Thursday) will have to be monitored.
At this time, it appears the rainfall from that may stay south
and southeast of the area. Near normal highs Sunday and Monday
will give way to below normal readings Tuesday a into the end
of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Currently, a weak southern-stream disturbance is located near Baja
California. Ahead of this system, a plume of deeper moisture
continues to stream northeastward within the southwesterly flow
aloft, which is evident on mid-level water-vapor satellite imagery.
The 00Z RAOB measured a precipitable water value of 1.51 inches,
again near the daily climatological maximum for this time of year
and indicative of a very anomalous moisture environment. Upper-level
divergence, combined with mid-level warm air advection and
frontogenesis, is currently supporting precipitation across
southeastern portions of the forecast area. Current observations and
model guidance suggest the best forcing for precipitation through
the morning will remain across eastern portions of the area,
primarily east of Highway 83, with this initial round likely
persisting through at least 12Z. Increasing low-level saturation
should support areas of fog across much of the region through the
morning hours. BUFKIT soundings show a nearly saturated low-level
profile beneath relatively weak ascent, which should favor
widespread low clouds, areas of fog, and periods of drizzle or light
precipitation. Some locally dense fog will also be possible where
the lowest levels become fully saturated. Overall, Friday is shaping
up to be a rather dreary day across much of the area, with
persistent low clouds, fog, and periods of drizzle or light rain.
Limited daytime heating beneath the extensive cloud cover should
keep temperatures cool across much of the region. By Friday
afternoon, the southern-stream shortwave will begin lifting
northeastward toward the region. Southerly to southeasterly low-
level flow will strengthen ahead of the wave, while mid-level lapse
rates gradually increase. Some clearing may occur across southwest
Nebraska as a warm front lifts northward, which could allow for
modest destabilization and increasing MUCAPE through the late
afternoon and evening. Both the 00z REFS and HREF currently show a
signal for locally heavier precipitation across portions of Frontier
into Custer Counties Friday evening. If thunderstorms develop in
this area, the severe weather threat should remain low given weak
deep-layer shear. However, locally heavy rainfall will remain
possible given the anomalously moist environment. Confidence in the
location and coverage of this activity remains low, with the
stronger signal for heavier precipitation and thunderstorms still
focused farther south and east across Kansas and eastern Nebraska
where stronger forcing and greater instability are expected. High
temperatures Friday will remain in the lower to middle 60s across
eastern portions of the area where cloud cover and precipitation
persist. Farther southwest, some afternoon clearing may allow
temperatures to reach the lower to middle 70s.
Saturday into Saturday night, the southern-stream system will weaken
and move east of the region through the day as mid-level ridging
develops in its wake. The better warm air advection and isentropic
ascent associated with the departing disturbance should shift into
eastern Nebraska, taking the better precipitation chances east of
the forecast area. Increasing subsidence and height rises should
result in drier conditions and decreasing cloud cover across western
and north-central Nebraska. By Saturday afternoon, a surface trough
extending southward from low pressure across southern Canada will
move into western Nebraska. Downslope flow behind the trough should
allow a considerably drier air mass to spread into western portions
of the area. Minimum relative humidity values may fall into the 25
to 30 percent range across western Nebraska. Uncertainty remains
regarding how far east this drier air will progress, though winds
currently appear marginal for more significant fire weather
concerns. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next couple
of forecast cycles. With increasing sunshine, highs Saturday should
rebound into the middle to upper 70s across much of the area, with
lower 80s possible across portions of western and southwest
Nebraska. Saturday night lows will generally fall into the lower to
middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Upper level ridging will translate eastward across the Central
Plains Sunday. This should bring a mainly dry day, with near
seasonal average high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Southwest flow aloft begins to strengthen Monday ahead of a closed
upper trough that will digging southeastward toward the Desert
Southwest. Leeward troughing will deepen during the day with a moist
southeast low-levek flow in place to the east of the troughing
across the entire area. Surface dew points around 60F should be in
place, which is rather impressive for the end of September. PWATS
will be on the increase once again due to a combination of low-level
moisture from the Gulf and mid and upper-level sub-tropical moisture
being pulled northeastward from northwest Mexico and the Desert
Southwest. ECMWF ENS average mean PWATS will be in the 1.1 to 1.3
range Monday afternoon. Convection is likely to develop near the
leeward trough within the moist up-slope flow regime. With continued
moisture advection on a modest southerly low-level jet, it appears
that the convection will grow upscale as it moves eastward across
the area Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall rates could become a
concern due to the anomalously high amount of moisture that will be
in place.
As we move toward the middle of the week the weather remains
interesting. The Desert Southwest closed upper trough will swing
eastward toward the Southern Plains. At the same time, the remnants
of Hurricane Polo and it`s associated tropical moisture, will be
pulled northeast and become absorbed into the upper circulation of
the upper low. There is low confidence on how this could affect us.
The consensus seems to be that most of the rainfall (potentially
heavy) will focus south and southeast of our area Wednesday and
Thursday. This is largely due to strong northern stream energy
across the Northern Plains, which keeps the upper low tracking in a
more easterly direction across the Southern Plains. Of note, the GFS
is weaker with the northern stream, and allows for rainfall to wrap
back westward into at least the eastern half of the area. Will
continue to monitor.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
Widespread IFR and localized low IFR is expected to persist
across most of western and north central Nebraska though mid-
morning. IFR/MVFR ceilings will then persist into this
afternoon into this evening. Surface winds will be southeast at
5 to 10 kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion