993
FXUS63 KLBF 161122
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A combination of warm temperatures, very low humidity, and
gusty south winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns
on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of
western and north central Nebraska.
- Light rain and snow is possible for areas west of HWY 83 on
Friday. Any accumulations are expected to remain light at this
time.
- Near critical fire weather concerns are expected Saturday.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
Sunday through Wednesday.
- Temperatures warm back into the 80s Monday through Wednesday
with dry conditions expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.
As broad surface cyclogenesis persists across portions of eastern
Montana and Wyoming into this afternoon, southerly flow quickly
strengthens across the area today in response. This strengthening
warm advection will boost temperatures aloft to near the 90th
percentile climo, and promotes a very warm day across the area.
Highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s, some 20 to 25 degrees
above average for mid-April. Unfortunately, these warm temperatures
will combine with dry dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s, and push
relative humidity values as low as 10 to 15 percent this afternoon.
As ample diurnal mixing taps into higher momentum flow aloft, wind
gusts from the south increase to as high as 25 to 35 miles per hour
for all. This combination of warm, dry, and gusty conditions will
lead to critical fire weather concerns. See no reason to change
inherited Red Flag Warnings across all of western and north central
Nebraska.
By tonight, the aforementioned surface low will eject southeast
across the Dakotas, and into eastern Nebraska by sunrise Friday.
This will drag a strong cold front through the area, with a sharp
wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold
advection will also promote ample mechanical mixing, and a period of
35 to 45 mile per hour northerly gusts can be expected overnight
into Friday morning after frontal passage. This will also usher in a
much colder airmass for Friday, with highs largely struggling to
leave the 40s amid the continued cold advection and persistent
cloudiness. Light rain and snow is also possible on Friday, as the
mid-level low quickly translates across the area by early Friday
evening. This will briefly increase FGEN west of HWY 83, and
guidance suggests a quick moving band of light precipitation in
association with this. Impacts look to remain limited with this, as
QPF continues to look light. NBM probabilities of even >0.10" only
peak as high as 20-40%, with the highest probabilities confined to
areas west of HWY 61. Though thermodynamic profiles briefly may
support snow, warm ground temps should hinder most accumulations. At
this time, a dusting of snow will be possible west of HWY 83, though
confidence in this is low. As the system quickly departs by late
Friday afternoon, clearing skies and weakening winds should set up
very efficient radiational cooling overnight. Lows Friday night fall
into the lower to middle 20s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
After a cold start with readings in the 20s, gusty
northwesterly winds will develop during the morning, persisting
into the afternoon hours. H85 temps Saturday afternoon range
from -2C in the northeast to 3C in the southwest. With abundant
mixing expected, highs will reach into the middle and upper 50s
across the area. A very dry airmass will settle into the
forecast area Friday night with forecast surface dew points in
the lower teens Saturday afternoon. The combination of gusty
winds (better than 80% chance for gusts over 25 MPH) and low
relative humidities (15 to 20 percent) will lead to near
critical fire weather conditions across the area at a minimum
Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are
possible over SW Nebraska. For now, decided to hold off on a
fire weather watch given the current RFW headlines and will
highlight the threat with our DSS packet and the HWO. Surface
high pressure will settle in across central Nebraska overnight
Saturday night. With dry air in place, clear skies and light
winds, several hours of sub-freezing temperatures appear likely
with lows in the middle 20s Sunday morning. Surface high
pressure will build east of the area Sunday, while upper level
ridging builds into the Intermountain West. Warmer air will push
into the area with H85 temps reaching into the mid to upper
teens C by afternoon-leading to highs in the middle 60s to upper
70s. Once again, with surface dew points in the single digits
to teens Sunday, afternoon relative humidity will fall off to 10
to 20 percent across the area. Winds will be lighter Sunday
generally in the 10 to 15 MPH range, so critical fire weather
conditions are not anticipated ATTM. Ridging will remain in
place across the Intermountain West Monday and Tuesday, before
migrating east onto the plains Wednesday. Conditions will remain
dry with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day.
Low level moisture advection will hold off until Wednesday
night, so near critical to critical minimum RH of 10 to 15
percent is expected Monday, 15 to 20 percent Tuesday and 15 to
30 percent Wednesday. Winds Monday and Tuesday have a low
potential to hit 25+ MPH with the greatest threat for >25 MPH
winds being Wednesday. All three days will see at least elevated
fire weather conditions with near critical or critical fire
weather conditions possible Wednesday. No precipitation is
anticipated Monday through Wednesday with the next chance
Wednesday night into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Through 04z at both terminals, expect mainly clear skies today
with increasing high cloudiness this afternoon. By 00z Friday,
expect broken to overcast ceilings around 20000 FT AGL. Winds
will be south-southwest today with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS likely.
Winds will diminish some this evening with an abrupt shift to
the north by late evening. The wind shift is expected around 5Z
Friday at the KVTN terminal and around 7Z Friday at the KLBF
terminal. With the wind shift, expect wind gusts to increase to
25 to 30 KTS overnight. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will
fall off to 1500 to 2500 FT AGL after 09z at the KVTN terminal.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are likely today and this evening
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Afternoon minimum
RH will reach 9 to 15 percent with southerly wind gusts up to 35
MPH. A strong cold front later tonight, will lead to cooler
temperatures, limiting fire weather concerns for Friday and Friday
night. By Saturday, gusty northerly winds and very dry air will lead
to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent. This coupled with a high
probability of wind gusts above 25 MPH will lead to near critical
or critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Looking
forward, Sunday through Wednesday will see, at a minimum, elevated
fire weather conditions across the area. Monday and Wednesday have
the greatest chance of seeing critical minimum RH and wind gusts
above 25 MPH. On those days, near critical or critical fire weather
conditions appear probable.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to
midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion