154
FXUS63 KLBF 071136
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler, though still well above average temperatures
in the 70s to low 80s return for Wednesday and Thursday. Some
threat for precipitation may return across north central
Nebraska early Thursday morning.
- Dry conditions remain likely Thursday night through Sunday.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Friday and
Saturday across the forecast area. A cold front will bring
cooler temperatures to the area Sunday, with even cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
- The threat for precipitation will increase beginning Sunday
night over northwestern Nebraska, with the threat for
precipitation spreading into the remainder of western and
north central Nebraska Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Currently, a backdoor cool front is pushing south across the area,
with light northerly winds observed with its passage. Temperatures
range from the middle 50s to lower 60s across the area under clear
skies.
For today, expect another quiet day behind the aforementioned
backdoor cool front. This will push temperatures down slightly over
yesterday, with highs expected in the middle 70s to lower 80s. The
dry airmass remains in place today, and as diurnal mixing occurs,
relative humidity will again fall into the upper teens to 20s across
the entire area. This would normally lead to increasing fire
concerns, though light winds are again expected as surface high
pressure settles into the area this afternoon behind the
aforementioned cool front. Lows tonight again fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Will still have to monitor a threat for precipitation
late tonight and early Thursday morning, though guidance continues
to suggest this largely stays off to the north and east of the area.
This is within a broad area of modestly increasing southerly flow
aloft, and this boost in moist advection and forcing could be just
enough to lead to isolated to scattered showers. That said, even the
most bullish NAM has begun to suggest lesser threat for
precipitation, with the bulk of the area remaining dry early
Thursday morning.
Weak surface low pressure begins to develop across western Nebraska
by Thursday morning, with southerly flow increasing across the area
ahead of this feature. This will promote increasing south wind gusts
Thursday afternoon, and also bring a return of richer surface
dewpoints in the middle 50s. This will help to offset fire weather
concerns despite the gusty winds, keeping afternoon humidity
elevated in the 30-40% range. Warm air aloft looks to keep the area
dry, though modest instability is expected to overspread the
Sandhills through the afternoon hours. Highs again range from the
middle 70s to the middle 80s, which is again around 10 to 15 degrees
above average for early October.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Ridging aloft will transition across Nebraska Thursday Night,
breaking down Friday night into Saturday. With the ridge
breakdown and the approach of a cold front Saturday night, very
warm air will reside across western and north central Nebraska
Friday and Saturday. Already the latest MET and MAV guidance is
advertising highs Friday, well into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across the area. The NBM is conservative with highs generally in
the middle to upper 80s Friday. With the ridge breakdown, and
well mixed southwesterly winds Friday afternoon, went ahead and
increased highs over the NBM initialized forecast, but under the
MET and MAV guidance. This yielded highs in the upper 80s with
some readings around 90. FWIW, the latest MET and MAV guidance
for North Platte is 93 Friday, which would be below the record
of 95. Records for Imperial, Broken Bow and Valentine are 91
degrees Friday. Based on current forecast trends, Imperial has
the best chances of hitting a record high on Friday. Late
Saturday, a cold front will approach northwestern Nebraska. Both
the GFS and EC solns tonight, keep the cold front northwest of
the forecast area through Saturday evening. Downstream of this
feature, another very warm day is expected across the forecast
area. Both the statistical EC and MEX guidance tonight has highs
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Like
Friday, the NBM undercuts these numbers 3 to 5 degrees across
the area. For now, will utilize the NBM numbers and monitor
forecast trends as frontal timing may be faster. As for records
Saturday, they are 88, 93, 94 and 95 degrees for Broken Bow,
North Platte, Imperial and Valentine respectively.
Highs Sunday behind the cold front will be noticeably cooler with
readings in the middle 60s in the Pine Ridge, to the upper 70s in
far SW Nebraska. Later Sunday evening, the threat for precipitation
will increase over northwestern Nebraska as mid level forcing tracks
from Wyoming into the Dakotas. Some of this forcing approaches the
northwestern forecast area Sunday night into Monday. As for
precipitation chances, the threat for measurable pcpn. remains low
at around 20 percent per the latest NBM ensemble probabilities. This
is supported by the latest deterministic GFS and EC solns which
limit QPF to under 0.05" over the Pine Ridge and NW Sandhills.
Monday and Tuesday will feature cooler highs in the 60s with
increasing chances for precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. Flow
aloft will transition to southwesterly as a broad trough of low
pressure enters the SW CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
Expect mainly clear skies across western and north central
Nebraska this morning. By this afternoon, a few to scattered
high clouds are possible across the area. Winds will be light
and variable at under 10 KTS over the next 24 hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion