627
FXUS63 KLBF 112038
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday across the
  eastern Sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska.

- Near critical-and possibly critical fire weather conditions
  are possible Wednesday across western portions of the
  forecast area. The main area of concern is west of highway 83.
  There may be fire weather concerns late in the week
  particularly Friday and Saturday.

- Well above seasonal temperatures are expected to last all week
  and into the weekend. Some uncertainty remains in the late
  week precipitation forecast, which will largely depend on a
  potential plume of Gulf moisture.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

H5 analysis this morning had an area of low pressure over
northeastern Quebec. A shortwave trough extended southwest of this
feature into southern Ontario around Lake Huron while a broad trough
of low pressure extended southwest into the Tennessee Valley.
Further west, a low amplitude ridge was present from eastern North
Dakota into Manitoba. High pressure was anchored over Arizona with a
ridge extending north into eastern Idaho. North of this ridge, a
shortwave trough was present along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border,
south to northern Montana. Gusty southwesterly winds had developed
across most of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon
with the exception of the northeastern Panhandle. Wind gusts were as
high as 38 MPH at Broken Bow over the past hour. Temperatures as of
2 PM CDT ranged from 81 at Broken Bow, to 87 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The Alberta/Saskatchewan shortwave, mentioned above, will
traverse southern Canada overnight ending up in southwestern
Ontario and northern Minnesota by 12z Tuesday. This feature will
force a cold front through the forecast area overnight. By 12z
Tuesday, this feature is expected to reside from south central
into far northeastern Nebraska. With the fropa overnight,
decided to include a mention of light precipitation across far
northern Nebraska. This is in line with the latest HRRR and
NAM12 solns. With passage of the front overnight, winds will be
decently mixed, leading to elevated temps tonight with lows
mainly in the 50s across the area. The expected warmer
temperatures also will limit RH recovery tonight to 50 to 60
percent. Tuesday will start out windy across the forecast area
behind the exiting front. Winds will peak during the mid to late
morning across western and southwestern Nebraska, then diminish
slightly into the afternoon hours. Further east, wind speeds
appear to peak later in the day, mainly during the afternoon
hours. Highs Tuesday will range from the middle 70s in the north
to around 80 in the south. The combination of winds and low
relative humidity will lead to near-critical fire weather
conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. Low
minimum RH~17 to 22 percent and good potential for wind gusts
above 25 MPH exists during the afternoon hours in zone 209.
After collaboration with our neighbors to the east, decided to
hoist a fire weather watch for Tuesday afternoon in this zone.
Elsewhere, the strongest winds preclude lowest RH so we should
fall short of critical fire weather conditions for all but zone
209 Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build into Nebraska
Tuesday night this will lead to lows in the lower 40s with light
winds expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Surface high pressure will drop southeast into eastern Kansas
Wednesday morning. Winds will shift to the south on the back
side of this feature and will be gusty by afternoon,
particularly in the western half of the forecast area. Decent
low level warm air advection will surge north with the increased
southerly winds, pushing highs into the middle 80s for
Wednesday. With respect to winds Wednesday. The latest NBM
ensemble forecast has a 90+ percent chance of wind gusts above
25 MPH Wednesday afternoon along and west of highway 83. When
this threshold is increased to 40+ MPH, there is still a 70%
chance of exceedance over the western Sandhills. The inherited
forecast had minimum RH on the order of 15 to 20 percent Weds.
afternoon in the west. If moisture return holds off until
Wednesday night, and it appears that way with the latest NAM
forecast this morning, we may need additional fire headlines
across the western forecast area Wednesday afternoon.

Ridging aloft across the Rockies, will transition east Wednesday
night with the ridge axis being oriented from Oklahoma, north into
the eastern Dakotas Thursday morning. At the same time, a decent
shortwave trough of low pressure will enter the northern Rockies of
Montana and northwestern Wyoming. Downstream of this feature, a low
level jet will develop Wednesday night from western Kansas into
western Nebraska. Low level moisture is expected to surge north
overnight with dew points reaching the middle to upper 40s across
the area (per the latest NAM12 soln) by daybreak Thursday. Low level
moisture advection will continue through midday with dew points
possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s in a large portion of the
forecast area. A decent mid level trough of low pressure will slide
across the northern high plains Thursday. Further south, the GFS and
NAM solns develop a dryline across the western third of the forecast
area Thursday afternoon. Capping appears strong during the afternoon
hours, but weakens somewhat by evening as colder air aloft enters
western Nebraska early evening. This leads to some development of
isolated thunderstorms Thursday evening across the area. The NBM
initialized with slight chance and low end chance pops Thursday
evening, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area. This
seems to be in good agreement with the location of the dryline at
00z, as depicted in the GFS and NAM12 solns. As for the severe
threat Thursday evening, the latest NAM12 soln does indicate some
modest SFC based CAPE`s of 500 to 1000 J/KG along and east of
highway 83. This area is co-located with decent low to mid level
lapse rates and bulk layer shear of 25 to 35 KTS. There are
parameters there to support a low end severe threat, but with dew
points only in the lower 50s, and lacking deep layer moisture, feel
the severe threat is marginal at best ATTM.

The shortwave trough will lift northeast into southern Canada
Thursday night into Friday forcing the dryline well east of the area.
Westerly winds will usher in drier air into the region for Friday.
With highs expected to reach into the middle to upper 80s, minimum
RH Friday afternoon will reach 10 to 20 percent across the forecast
area. Westerly winds Friday are currently forecast in the 10 to 20
MPH range which would avoid any critical fire weather concerns. Low
amplitude flow from the central plains west to the west coast will
begin to amplify as a trough of low pressure deepens over the west
coast of the CONUS Saturday. This will lead to the development of a
surface trough across the high plains late Saturday. Increasing
southerly winds will once again usher in low level moisture to the
area. This low level moisture will persist across the area into the
latter half of the weekend and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds 15KT
with gusts to near 30KT this afternoon and early evening. A
cold front tracks into the region after 03Z and overnight,
switching winds from southwesterly to northerly. Additionally, a
low level jet develops overnight, bringing LLWS concerns to
the KLBF terminal 06Z until 10Z. Expect an abrupt shift in
winds at the surface and aloft as the cold front passes, with
gusty northerly winds at the surface overnight and through
Tuesday morning. Expect scattered high clouds this afternoon,
with broken high clouds northern Nebraska this evening. Could
also see sprinkles across northern Nebraska after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Over the next 60 hours, two areas of concern are noted for critical
fire weather concerns. The first area is Tuesday afternoon, mainly
over zone 209. Gusty northwest winds behind an exiting cold front
will couple with a dry post frontal airmass, producing critical RH
around 20 percent with wind gusts reaching 35 MPH. Further west
Tuesday, stronger winds behind the front peak during the mid to late
morning hours. These winds in the west will preclude the lowest RH
values. With this occurring, most of the forecast area will avoid
critical fire weather conditions Tuesday. By Wednesday, strong
southerly winds will over the western half of the forecast area.
This area of concern is generally west of a line from Valentine to
North Platte. Minimum RH in all locations ranges from 17 to 22
percent across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. However, winds
will drop off quickly east of highway 83 as these areas will be under
the influence of exiting high pressure. Friday will feature critical
minimum RH behind an exiting disturbance, however, winds are
forecast to remain below RFW criteria. Southerly winds will increase
on Saturday across the area with highs forecast in the mid 80s to
around 90. Minimum RH Saturday afternoon reaches 15 to 20 percent
across the area with decent potential for wind gusts exceeding 25
MPH. This will lead to, at a minimum, near-critical fire weather
conditions across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NEZ209.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion