599
FXUS63 KLBF 181742
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1242 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cool, raw day is in store for western Nebraska Monday as
daytime highs remain 20-30F below normal and light rain
crosses the area.
- Cooler overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night may lead to the potential
for at least patchy frost/freeze conditions west of Highway
83.
- Periodic light precipitation potential will persist through
the upcoming week as daytime highs climb to seasonable and
then above normal values by the late weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Early this morning, scattered showers were lifting north and east
across the Sandhills and portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. This
was associated with a weak impulse located around h7 ejecting ahead
of the parent trough situated across the Great Basin. Light rain is
possible beneath this activity as low level humidity remains fairly
high within a post frontal airmass. Temperatures largely sit in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with breezy north winds. Cloud cover should
keep temperatures from falling too significantly though morning lows
will still reach 5-10F below normal for late May.
Monday/Monday Night...northerly low-level flow will persist through
the daytime across western Nebraska. The frontal inversion will
support cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions for the bulk of the
daytime and combined with persistent cold air advection, should keep
temperatures in check across the region. Afternoon highs will likely
only reach the lower 40s in the northwest to near 50F in our far
south and east. These values will approach 30F below normal for mid-
May and when factoring in steady north winds gusting 20 to 30 mph,
feels like temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower 30s
for portions of the area. Main upper trough will begin to pivot by
midday as it crosses the central Rockies to the west. This will lead
to a fairly expansive area of thunderstorms along a stalled frontal
boundary and associated baroclinic zone draped in southeast
Nebraska. It is here where the Storm Prediction Center has
maintained a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) extending south into
Kansas and folks with interests in these locations should check for
local information regarding this threat from reliable sources.
Further west in the local area, the cooler temperatures will all be
prevent the threat for severe weather. While MUCAPE may approach 500
j/kg, perhaps enough for a rumble of thunder across central
Nebraska, severe weather is not anticipated west or north of the Tri-
Cities. Lift via increasing height falls, cyclonic vorticity
advection, and frontal forcing should lead to expanding
precipitation primarily for the Panhandle into portions of north
central Nebraska. PoPs should gradually increase this afternoon with
the highest probabilities arriving by early evening. Even with the
cooler temperatures, precipitation is expected to fall as rain with
colder air waiting to filter in until precipitation has departed.
Rates should be slow and steady given primarily synoptic lift and
limited if any instability. The result is showery activity overtop
the widespread stratus. HREF probability matched mean (PMM) output
suggests most locations see < 0.10" outside the Panhandle and our
far northern counties. The going forecast matches this well with
most locations seeing < 0.05" save for the Pine Ridge vicinity where
closer to 0.20" seems plausible. Precipitation exits the area
shortly after Midnight tonight with temperatures then falling to the
upper 20s in the west to middle 30s east. The going forecast lows of
32F and 33F at North Platte and Valentine respectively fall into the
lowest 10% of observed values for the May 19 date. Will defer to
later forecasts for potential Frost/Freeze headlines but believe
these will be necessary given recent updates of susceptible
vegetation.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...behind departing trough, mid-level heights
will begin to build quickly across the region. Surface high pressure
will nose in from the west and support steady northwesterly winds.
Increasing h85 temperatures and downsloping flow should produce a
warmer day as temperatures look to return to the upper 50s to lower
60s. Subsidence aloft will allow for eroding clouds and dry
conditions. High pressure will settle to the east and return
southerly flow should become established by late evening. Cloud
cover should increase as a result with subtle moisture advection
over the High Plains. Forecast lows remain on par with Monday
night`s forecast values so additional Frost headlines may need to be
considered if the current forecast holds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
The extended pattern will generally favor warming temperatures with
periodic rain and thunderstorm potential. Southwesterly flow should
return by mid week as modest troughing forms west of the Continental
Divide. Moisture should increase across the area and set the stage
for low-end PoPs periodically. Temperatures should moderate steadily
with NBM median MaxT and MinT values showing 4-6F day-over-day
climbs. Given the expected daytime temperatures returning to
seasonable and then abnormally warm values, believe any
precipitation potential will likely come in the form of
thunderstorms. Generally weak mid-level flow will likely limit the
threat for any widespread severe weather event at this time. An
approaching trough on Friday may pose the greatest potential for
western Nebraska as a cool front moves out of the Northern Plains.
NBM matches this timeframe with 10-20% potential for seeing > 0.25"
precipitation but greater probabilities are apparent east of the
local area. Beyond Friday, drier conditions appear likely as
precipitable water values fall off and upper-level ridging builds
across the Western CONUS. NBM probabilities for exceeding 90F climbs
by late weekend, with probabilities reaching 20-40% by Sunday and 40-
70% by Monday. Higher percentile outputs suggest mid to upper 90s
for these days, but inner-quartile spreads remain reasonably large
so certainty is low at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Mostly MVFR with local IFR ceilings will continue through the
afternoon into most of tonight across western and north central
Nebraska. Scatttered showers will be possible through this
evening. Conditions will improve after 12Z Tuesday morning with
skies becoming clear. Surface winds will be north at 10-20 kts
through this evening then decreasing after 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion