183
FXUS63 KLBF 201130
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The combination of warm, very dry, and gusty conditions will
lead to near critical to critical fire weather concerns
today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and
north of Interstate 80 this afternoon.
- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are possible
again on Tuesday due to very warm and dry conditions.
- Potential for a few isolated strong or perhaps a severe storm
late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
- Fire weather concerns continue Wednesday and especially
Thursday.
- Colder weather for the weekend with precipitation chances
looking better. Wet snow could materialize Sunday and
especially Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Currently, temperatures range from the upper 30s in north central
Nebraska to the lower 50s in southwest Nebraska under clear skies.
Winds are from the southeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Surface high
pressure is currently centered off to the east of the area over the
upper Midwest.
For today, expect critical fire weather concerns for much of western
and north central Nebraska. This is due to yet another warm and very
dry day, as persistent and increasing southwesterly flow promotes
increasing warm advection and ample diurnal mixing. Highs today
return to the upper 70s t0 80s, and with the very dry airmass in
place, this pushes humidity values into the upper single digits to
teens for the entire area. Enough higher momentum flow aloft exists
as well (H7-H85 flow ~20-25kts) to promote gusts approaching 20 to
30 miles per hour this afternoon for areas generally near and north
of I-80. This looks to be more than adequate to support the
inherited Red Flag Warning for much of the area. Did opt to expand
this warning to Fire Zone 219 (eastern Frontier/southeastern Lincoln
counties) in collaboration with neighboring offices, as gusts
approaching 20 to 25 miles per hour seem likely enough in the
aforementioned area. A weak frontal boundary then pushes through the
area overnight, leading to weak west-northwest winds with its
passage. Lows tonight fall into the lower 40s, much warmer than that
of the previous few mornings.
A similarly warm and very dry day awaits us again on Tuesday, albeit
even a few degrees warmer than today. Broad lee cyclogenesis across
eastern Wyoming and Colorado will lead to increasing southerly winds
by Tuesday afternoon across the area, again boosting warm advection.
This will promote H85 temperatures warming to as high as 23-25C by
late Tuesday afternoon, and highs in the middle to upper 80s for
all. Portions of southwest Nebraska may even approach the low 90s.
Again, very low relative humidity is expected Tuesday afternoon, as
low as 10 to 15 percent across all of western and north central
Nebraska. Luckily, winds look to largely remain below 25 miles per
hour, though this will need to be monitored closely. Still, elevated
to near critical fire weather concerns can be expected across the
area again on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
An upper level trough approaches the area from the west Wednesday,
as the upper level ridge axis shifts eastward over the Mississippi
Valley region. Surface low pressure will deepen in response to the
approaching trough across eastern Colorado/Wyoming. In fact, most
ensemble members support a fairly deep low center down to around
990mb. This tightens the surface pressure gradient from east to west
and will bring strong southerly/southeasterly winds across the
region. A very warm day once again, with highs in the mid to upper
80s. Potential set-up for fire weather concerns. However, low-level
moisture/humidity will be on the increase from the Gulf, with dew
points climbing into the lower and middle 50s by afternoon. The
moisture, at least initially, is fairly shallow and appears will mix
out some. Models are struggling somewhat with how much mixes out,
and at least portions of the area could see near-critical or even
critical fire weather conditions develop, depending on the amount of
mixing.
Attention then turns to thunderstorm potential later Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. Surface instability will increase
along pr near the Highway 83 corridor where higher surface dew
points appear to be maximized. Again, some concern on dew
points/moisture mixing out, but should be a narrow corridor of
better moisture and instability by late afternoon as deeper moisture
arrives. NAM supports this with H85 dew points reaching 10-12C by
very late afternoon into the evening. Appears to be a narrow window
for convection to initiate near the dry line across the western
Sandhills. A strong capping inversion appears to weaken just enough
for a few isolated cells to develop. Models then strengthen the
capping inversion quickly during the evening. So both coverage and
intensity is questionable at this point. Nevertheless, hodographs
support a supercell or two if storms can get going.
The deep surface low will quickly track into the Dakotas Thursday,
with a return to strong west/northwest winds and low humidity.
Thursday will likely see near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions develop once again. Friday will see a cool down, but
still appears that fire weather concerns will be present as gusty
northwest winds and low humidity continue.
A change in the weather occurs this weekend. An upper level trough
will move eastward across the Rockies. A warm front develops
eastward across Kansas from a deepening eastern Colorado surface low.
Appears to be plenty of moisture, with strong mid-level FGEN
developing. ENS probabilities for some decent precipitation amounts
are increasing later Saturday night into Sunday night. Colder air
will be drawn southward Sunday as the Colorado surface low moves
into Kansas. Appears that some accumulating wet snow could
materialize Sunday and especially Sunday night. Will continue to
monitor.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all of western
and north central Nebraska through today and into tonight.
Southwest surface winds will increase 10-20 kts, with the
strongest winds north of I-80. Clear skies this morning will
give way to an increase in high cloudiness this afternoon into
tonight. Winds become light tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for all but far southwest
Nebraska. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into the
upper 70s to lower 80s, along with humidity dropping into the
teens all areas. In fact, locations west of Highway 183 will
likely see humidity as low as 8-12%. Southwest winds will increase
by late morning and continue this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph
will be possible, especially for areas north of I-80 across the
Sandhills, central into north central Nebraska. Although far
southwest Nebraska will see the very low humidity values, winds
will be lighter and no fire weather headlines appear to be needed
in that area. Humidity recovery will be poor tonight, especially
across portions of the Sandhills, north central and northwest
Nebraska.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion