406
FXUS63 KLBF 061146
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening across the northern Panhandle into north central
  Nebraska. A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible
  with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns.

- Breezy conditions are expected today and Tuesday across the region.
  The stronger winds are expected Tuesday, where winds may gust
  up to 40 mph across the Sandhills.

- After slightly above normal temperatures later this week,
  unseasonably hot weather appears likely early next week with a
  60- 80% chance that portions of western Nebraska reach or
  exceed 100F Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An upper level ridge is observed over western Nebraska, with a
surface low pressure system observed over eastern Montana into
western North Dakota. Through most of the day, expecting this will
lead to mostly clear skies and slightly above average temperatures
across the region. This will also support southerly surface winds
across the region, which could be a bit breezy at times. In general,
expecting sustained southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph this
afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Although conditions will be
warm and breezy, with humidity remaining over 30 percent and recent
rainfall, expecting fire weather conditions will remain elevated at
best, most notably across the Sandhills.

Later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave is expected to track
through the larger flow pattern, nudging the surface low across
Montana and North Dakota further to the east. While this occurs, a
cold front tracks across South Dakota, clipping portions of northern
Nebraska. With expected dewpoints in the lower 60s ahead of the cold
front and highs in the 90s, instability will build across the
region, with CAPE values expected to reach around 2,000-2,500 J/kg.
With the main upper level flow remaining to the north, however, deep
layer shear is expected to be fairly marginal. The relatively lower
shear across the region should generally limit severe weather
concerns with any storms this afternoon, but cannot rule out some
potential for hail with stronger cells. The main threat area for any
thunderstorms this afternoon remains just ahead of the cold front,
which will mostly impact the northern Panhandle into north central
Nebraska. Any storm activity is expected to wind down by midnight,
keeping cloudy skies across the region.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, a similar pattern remains. Another upper
level shortwave tracks through the large flow pattern, continuing to
nudge the surface low to the east. This push is expected to track
the cold front through western Nebraska, providing a better forcing
mechanism for convection Tuesday afternoon. Again, dewpoints climb
into the 60s, with highs in the 90s, supporting 2,000-2,5000 J/kg of
surface based CAPE. Shear remains somewhat lacking, with guidance
suggesting around 20 knots deep layer shear. This may support a
multicell to linear style of convection, especially with the cold
frontal support. While the ingredients seem in place for some
potentially more organized convection, will need to see how the
mesoscale evolves over the next 24-36 hours to get a better idea of
the severe weather threat. However, this set up at least brings
higher confidence for additional rainfall across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Wednesday through Friday...Mid-level flow will become more zonal as
upper ridging flattens across the southwest and shortwave troughing
enters the Pacific Northwest. A more pronounced disturbance will
cross the northern Rockies Wednesday into Thursday. This should drop
a cool front south through the area and lead to a relative cooldown
though daytime highs Thursday and Friday should largely settle
closer to middle July norms. Broad height falls will carry through
the evening Wednesday into Thursday. As a frontal boundary stalls in
the area, periodic rain and thunderstorms are likely through the
timeframe. NBM probabilities show modest QPF potential Wednesday (20-
40% to see > 0.25") with further increases on Thursday (40-60% for
the same). This aligns with the PoPs from the model blend which peak
Thursday PM with upwards of 70% west of Highway 83.

The weekend into early next week...precipitation chances drop off
considerably as Great Basin ridging amplifies by early Sunday.
Associated high pressure aloft will lift through the Central Rockies
and settle onto the central High Plains by Sunday/Monday. Daytime
temperatures will jump as a result with values in the low to middle
90s on Saturday climbing further to upper 90s and low 100s by
Sunday/Monday. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index continues to paint
anomalous values coincident with the ridge axis immediately west of
the local area and these should settle further east by Monday. NAEFS
highlights geopotential heights aloft nearing the model
climatological maximum by Monday morning as h5 heights near 600 dam
over Nebraska/South Dakota with a 1 Day/10 years Annual Return
Interval. This will also likely quell any precipitation potential
while promoting the expected heat wave. Cluster analysis shows
fairly sizable spread with influence of the northern stream jet
playing a big role in magnitude of ridging aloft. ECMWF remains the
most pessimistic regarding expected heat with a stronger disturbance
crossing southern Canada Monday, but even it highlights expansive
upper 90s to lower triple digits. While precise values are far from
certain at this time, the anticipated arrival of such strong ridging
supports at least a few days of highly anomalous temperatures...
potentially requiring heat headlines. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Main aviation concerns today will focus on thunderstorm
potential late afternoon into the evening. Activity should
develop over the western Sandhills, nearer to KGRN/KAIA, and
gradually move east with time. This should introduce a short
window of impacts at KVTN and have introduced a short period of
prevailing -TSRA. Activity is otherwise expected to remain well
north of KLBF and not have any impacts there. Impacts from
convection will include MVFR conditions before returning to VFR
to end the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion