199
FXUS63 KLBF 061722
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1222 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for light snow tonight into Tuesday, only light
  accumulations expected

- Precipitation chances increase towards the end of the week

- Warmer temperatures expected by this weekend with highs in the
  70s and 80s

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Over the next 36 hours, precipitation chances in association
with a tandem of mid level disturbances, will be the main
forecast highlight through Tuesday. Weak cold air advection will
continue later this morning behind an exiting back door cold
front. By afternoon, this feature will extend across far
northern Kansas. North of the front, easterly winds and
increasing cloud cover (most prevalent over northern portions of
the forecast area), will lead to much cooler temperatures.
Highs this afternoon will range from the lower 40s in the
northeast, to the upper 50s over far SW Nebraska. Through the
first half of today, an area of mid level frontogenesis will
spread from South Dakota into northeastern Nebraska. This mid
level forcing will quickly transition east of the area this
afternoon. In the interim, QPF`s in association with this
forcing will be around a few hundredths of an inch and focused
over Boyd and northeastern Holt counties. With the main
precipitation timing being during daylight hours. Snow will have
a hard time accumulating and any measurable snow will be
confined to grassy surfaces. A second area of mid level
frontogenesis will enter northern Nebraska tonight, then
transition to the east-southeast into eastern Nebraska then
Western Iowa Tuesday. As for precipitation timing, the best
forcing tracks across the area from 03z to 12z Tuesday. Given
the timing and temperatures in the 20s tonight, precipitation
should end up as snow. Once again, QPF`s are low across the
forecast area with the greatest QPF`s located across
northeastern, into east central Nebraska and western Iowa.
Current QPF forecasts have amounts a tenth of an inch or less
across the area, so resultant snow accumulations are expected to
be light at an inch or less. Looking at the deterministic solns
tonight including the NAM12, 4KM NAM, 00z HRRR, and GFS solns
indicate a compact band of precipitation with this forcing
tonight into Tuesday morning. With the exception of the 00z
HRRR, snow accumulations are off to the east of the forecast
area. As indicated above, the 00z HRRR does generate some light
snow accumulations ie. 1-2 inches in southeastern Holt County
tonight. Since this HRRR soln. is the outlier, feel any snow
accums. will be an inch or less and confined to far northeastern
portions of the forecast area. As temperatures warm into the
40s in northeastern areas Tuesday, ptypes will change over to
rain in the afternoon. Further south and southwest, highs will
reach into the 50s as some limited clearing will commence
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

An upper level low will pass north across the northern
plains on Wednesday with a trailing cold front. At this time it
looks like the cold front will pass through early in the day
Wednesday which will keep temperatures on the cooler end with highs
in the 50s and 60s. Thus given the earlier passage of the cold front
fire weather concerns for Wednesday have lessen as temperatures have
trended cooler and an increase in low to mid level moisture will
keep min RH around 25 percent or greater. Will also see a chance for
showers across southwest Nebraska by Wednesday afternoon. Will
continue to monitor the system as it translate eastward into the
central CONUS but models have come into better consensus in the
last few runs of the earlier progression of the front.

The pattern will become a little more active with a couple of sw
disturbances that will move through Thursday and Friday as
moisture increases. Precipitation mode will likely be rain but
there is the potential of isolated thunderstorms Thursday night
across southwest Nebraska, however the better environment for
thunderstorms will likely be south along the KS/NE border. A
warm front is expected to push through the area this weekend and
will see temperatures warm above normal into the 70s and 80s.
There will also be the increase potential for thunderstorm
chances as moisture advects into the region, will have to
continue to monitor the weekend system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon will gradually degrade to MVFR
this evening and possibly IFR/LIFR as a disturbance rolls
through the area.

Expect slowly lowering CIGs, falling below 3kft AGL by this
evening. Precipitation potential will increase late this evening
into early Tuesday morning, mostly for the Sandhills though
impacts at either or both terminals are possible. The most
bullish NWP output suggests ~4-6 hour window of -SN/IP/FZRA
with the former two favored at either LBF or VTN. Will include a
mention at VTN and forgo mention at LBF for now.

Low stratus should persist beyond any precipitation potential
with at least MVFR CIGs, if not worse, lasting through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion