270
FXUS63 KLBF 062325
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm potential enters the picture Monday afternoon and
  especially during the evening. Briefly severe storms will be
  possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Precipitation chances will decrease by the middle of the week and
  remain low until possibly early next weekend.

- Slightly cooler but abnormally warm temperatures will remain for
  the rest of the week with Wednesday being the coolest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A couple of thunderstorms could clip northwest Nebraska this
evening as they move northeastward off the higher terrain from
the west. Overall most of the area is within an area of
subsidence behind this morning`s MCS which has moved into Iowa.

Otherwise, upper level ridging will remain anchored across the
southern plains through Monday night. Meanwhile a potent upper
level low will be crossing southern Canada with upper troughing
extending southward into the Rockies and northern Plains. A slow
moving cold front associated with the northern plains
troughing...will be located from near Bassett to Ainsworth by
late Monday afternoon. Moisture pools ahead of the front with
PWATS nearing 1.75 to 2.0" before any convective initiation
along the front. That is a very moist atmosphere which leads to
a locally heavy rain threat Monday night. As far as the expected
scenario:
widely scattered thunderstorms should develop from north to
south along the front during the late afternoon hours.
Development should first be across north central Nebraska where
overall forcing will be somewhat stronger. As winds back to the
southeast slightly ahead of the front during the early evening,
convergence along the boundary increases with storms expected to
become more numerous. Upper-level flow is parallel to the front
so will have to watch for training of storms, which would
increase the heavy rain threat. As far as the severe potential,
overall shear and instability would support storm organization
and at least some potential for some briefly severe storms. This
may be more early on while storms are more isolated.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A deep upper trough parked over southern Canada near the
Pacific Northwest will move eastward through Tuesday into
Wednesday and flatten out the upper ridge that is over much of
the Plains. During this timeframe near the surface, a cold front
will push across the northern Plains throughout late Monday
through Tuesday. This front will come into contact with a moist
airmass provided by strong southwest flow ahead of it. Combine
this with modest but sufficient wind shear, increased chances
for isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday
morning. Once the front passes through, slightly cooler
temperatures will be in its wake for the remainder of the week,
with highs in the upper 80s to to potentially low 90s further
south along I80. Wednesday in particular will be the coolest
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.

The flattened ridge will become a more zonal flow regime through the
mid week with high pressure settling across Nebraska. This is likely
to preclude precipitation chances until the following weekend where
a deepening upper trough is forecasted to take shape across the
Pacific Northwest sometime Saturday morning. Once this trough
crosses the Rockies, it will support increasing precipitation
chances as well as the potential fore returning to near normal highs
for the time of year in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are be expected through the forecast period with the
exception of early Monday morning. There is a possibility for
some temporary MVFR ceilings across north central Nebraska as
well as sporadic areas of LLWS across southwest Nebraska that
will impact KLBF, during the early morning of Monday and into
sunrise. A front is expected to move through the area near the
end of the forecast period around Monday early to mid afternoon.
This will shift winds to out of the southwesterly at 10 to 15
mph gusting up to near 30 mph. Additionally, there is a chance
of showers and thunderstorms Monday evening across southwest
Nebraska but have omitted them from the TAFs at this time due to
uncertainty of KLBF terminal being affected during this
forecast cycle, but, should be something to keep an eye on for
the next forecast cycle.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MRS

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion