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FXUS63 KLBF 031734
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Upper level ridging has shifted slightly east from the Southern
Plains to more across the southeast CONUS the past 24 hrs. This
allows for more of a southwesterly flow aloft today and into the
nth across the region.

Southeast low-level flow will continue to maintain dew points in the
60s though today across western and north central Nebraska.
Convective chances appear somewhat better than Saturday, however the
overall evolution of how the convection will play out is somewhat
unclear. Several HREF members have little if anything across our
immediate area, while others have some fairly robust activity. A
weak upper level pertabation will track northeast across CO/WY today
and approach the Western High Plains later this afternoon. Surface
low pressure will deepen this afternoon across eastern WY in response
to the approaching disturbance. A leeward trough will extend south-
southeast from this low across the NE panhandle into eastern CO.
Moist southeast low-level flow will help enhance convergence along
this feature, and scattered tstms should develop by late afternoon
near the trough. There is an outside chance of a storm developing
farther east across portions of southwest NE as lift increases due
to the approaching wave. Confidence on this occurring is low
however...as it is hard to find a focus for convection to initiate
in this area. The most likely scenario is for storms to organize
early this evening across western NE as they move east off the
leeward trough. The environment will be supportive of at least a few
strong to severe storms. A moist southerly low-level jet increases
to near 45 kts across central and western NE during the evening. In
addition, mid-level lapse rates will be in the process of
steepening. Wind appears to be of most concern with any stronger
storm, with a lesser threat for hail. There is a non-zero chance of
a brief tornado as the H85 flow increases this evening. There is a
noted weakness in the flow between H7-H5, but below this the flow is
strong with considerable turning, thus a brief spin up cannot be
ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with the
atmosphere quite moist, with PWATS nearing 1.5" in the pre-
convective environment.

The heat will build across the area on Independence Day, with a
break in thunderstorm potential for the most part. A warm front will
lift into southern SD with temperatures nearing 100F across much of
the area south of the boundary. There may be a need for some sort of
heat related headline and this will be evaluated today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

The above mentioned warm front will settle south and become nearly
stationary across northern NE on Tuesday as surface low pressure
deepens across the western High Plains. Appears the warm front will
become the focus for robust convective development late in the day
Tuesday. Convection organization will be aided by a stronger
disturbance that arrives Tuesday evening. Again could see areas of
locally heavy rainfall as well as a few strong to locally severe
storms.

Models have slowed the northward expansion of the ridge from the
Southern Plains. This should allow for continued storm chances at
least through Wednesday. The Southern Plains ridge is still
forecasted to expand northward Thursday and beyond. This should
decrease the threat for organized convection as the flow aloft
weakens and mid-level temperatures warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022

Lingering low clouds with MVFR CIGs over central Nebraska are
expected to scatter out over the next couple hours, with a return
to VFR area wide. Thunderstorm development is anticipated by late
evening across the Panhandle, pushing east overnight. Strong
outflow winds will be the primary hazard. Winds remain gusty from
the south tonight at around 15 to 25kts before the approach of a
frontal boundary tomorrow.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion