741
FXUS63 KLBF 141123
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions expected through this
  evening. Strong southerly winds will shift to the northwest
  through the day but remain strong through the evening.

- An isolated risk of thunderstorms this evening, with a
  Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for large hail and gusty winds.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  weekend. Storms could be strong to severe both Saturday and
  Sunday. The main threats appear to be large hail and damaging
  wind gusts, but will continue to refine the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A 50 to 60 kt LLJ has kept winds up overnight with winds
continuing to gust around 25 to 30 mph across much of western and
north central Nebraska. Given winds have continued to remain strong
across the eastern portions of the CWA and poor overnight recovery,
decided to extend the Red Flag Warning for fire weather zones 209
and 219, extending it to 10pm this evening, matching up with the
rest of the RFW. Confidence has increased for winds to remain strong
at least through the afternoon, with lower confidence in winds
remaining strong through late evening. Will also note there will be
a wind shift during the day and winds will shift from the south to
the northwest.

A weak sfc trof will move through the area this evening with a
subtle dry line. As this moves eastward across the area there will
be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm. CAPE will be around 1000
to 1500 J/kg and marginally steep lapse rates. If a storm were to
develop it will be a fairly narrow corridor near the dry line,
generally believe this will like mainly east of HWY 83 and south of
HWY 92. The main hazards with these storms will be marginally severe
hail and strong winds.

Flow becomes more zonal on Friday, there will continue to be an
elevated to near critical concern for fire weather temperatures will
warm wind the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the Sandhills and
southwest and portions of western Nebraska. Min RH will range from
around 9 to 15 percent. Winds however at this time are expected to
remain light, generally around 10 to 15 mph and at this time no fire
weather headlines are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday, an upper level trough begins to track across the Northwest
United States, bringing southwesterly flow aloft across western
Nebraska. The northern jet stream will interact with the southern
jet, bringing a shortwave a cross the Four Corners region. With
these upper level troughs, expecting to see surface lows across
southern Canada and eastern Colorado, which will be the drivers for
precipitation chances this weekend. Ahead of these systems, will
still see daytime highs reach above average across the region, with
highs climbing into the 80s. While humidity values are again
expected to drop into the 15 to 20 percent range across the region.
However, there is some question on the strength of winds Saturday as
well as duration. Ahead of precipitation chances, could see some
additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across
western Nebraska, for at least a few hours in the afternoon. By
Saturday evening, as the low across Colorado tracks slightly to the
northeast, expect increasing precipitation chances across the
region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a subtle warm
frontal feature, tracking across southwest Nebraska. Current
forecast soundings indicate relatively meager elevated CAPE, with
sufficient deep layer shear to support organized convection should
thunderstorms develop. For now, believe that gusty winds would be
the main threat, given dry lower layers and elevated storms, but
will likely gain better confidence in the severe threat as time goes
on. For what it`s worth, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5)across areas roughly along and south of Highway 2, with a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) across southwest Nebraska for Saturday.

A better severe set up is expected on Sunday, as a low tracks across
the Dakotas, bringing a cold front into the region. Expecting
another warm day across the region, with highs ranging from the mid
70s to lower 90s, with cooler temperatures across northwest Nebraska
(due to the cold front). A return of higher dewpoints is also
expected, with dewpoints in the 50s across the region, especially
areas east of Highway 83. This will help set up strong instability,
with CAPE values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg during the afternoon and
evening. Around 50 knots deep layer shear is also expected, which
will support organized convection. Again, SPC has highlights areas
along and east of Highway 83 in a 15% chance for severe weather
Sunday afternoon. Given some of the model guidance, especially
forecast soundings, believe there will be a threat for strong winds
and large hail Sunday afternoon, but again, will continue to gain
confidence as we get closer to Sunday.

Looking into early next week, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic
models indicate the trough across the western United States will
continue to deepen. This is further backed by cluster analysis,
indicating a deepening of the upper level trough as well. Ensemble
guidance suggests rain chances stick around through Monday
afternoon, with chances for continued light showers into Tuesday.
Confidence in timing for precipitation and its exit from the region
remain less certain. However, with the growing confidence in a
deepening trough, expect that near seasonal to slightly cooler than
seasonal highs will be possible through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Gusty winds remain the primary
aviation concern throughout the day and into t he evening. Winds
will initially be southerly, but as a surface boundary tracks across
the region, winds shift to northwesterly. Across western Nebraska, a
dry line tracks across the region this afternoon, bringing some
sites to westerly winds by the afternoon. A mid level cloud deck
remains across the region, which will continue to track out of the
region today. VFR ceilings are expected through most of the TAF
period, though some brief MVFR conditions may be observed over the
next few hours with lower cloud cover under the main cloud deck.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Winds continue to remain gusty overnight, with poor humidity
recovery expected. With this in mind, consensus was to continue the
Red Flag Warning and extend where the Warning was expected to
expire. Confidence continues to be high in gusty southerly winds
lasting into the morning. Through the morning, expecting a wind
shift to northwest to northerly winds to track across the region,
with westerly to northwesterly winds across the region by mid
afternoon. Expect another day of well above seasonal temperatures,
with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. A dry line sets up across the
region this afternoon, bringing very low humidity across western
Nebraska, generally in the 10 to 15 percent range, but could see
single digit percentages by late afternoon. Ahead of the dry line,
afternoon humidity around 15 to 25 percent is expected. Winds become
light and variable this evening, with poor humidity recovery across
western Nebraska. However, across north central and central
Nebraska, humidity recovery is expected to be strong, generally
around 70 to 80 percent.

For Friday, another hot and dry afternoon is expected, with highs
again in the 80s to lower 90s. Afternoon humidity across the region
is expected to drop to less than 20 percent, with amounts less than
15 percent expected west of Highway 183. While it will be hot and
dry, latest guidance has backed off on winds, bringing a few gusts
up to 25 mph through the afternoon, though continuous strong winds
and gusts are not expected at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-209-210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion