695
FXUS63 KLBF 160556
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1156 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front pushes through the area tonight, bringing
  a threat for high winds for all of western and north central
  Nebraska. Widespread northwest wind gusts of 60 to 65 miles
  per hour are expected through the day tomorrow.

- The strong northwest winds will combine with dry air across
  southwest Nebraska and lead to critical fire weather concerns
  for areas south of Interstate 80 tomorrow.

- Snow showers could lead to rapid and significant visibility
  reductions both late this evening (with the cold front) and
  tomorrow afternoon across portions of western and north
  central Nebraska.

- A return to dry conditions and much colder temperatures begins
  Saturday, where early morning winds chills will dip to the
  negative teens. A warming trend will return the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Currently, gusty northwest winds prevail across the area behind the
first of two cold fronts expected to impact the area today and
tomorrow. Gusts as high as 40 to 45 miles per hour have been
observed. This is combining with low relative humidity values, and
near critical fire concerns are expected to persist into this
evening.

By this evening, a second cold front will quickly push across the
area from north to south. Strengthening cold advection and robust
surface pressure rises in its wake suggest a period of strong
northwest wind gusts with its passage. Strong winds aloft will
likely be mechanically mixed downwards and lead to gusts as high as
50 to 60 miles per hour within an hour or so of frontal passage.
With this in mind, have opted to start the High Wind Warning
earlier, 6 PM CST, to address this threat. A brief lull in gusts is
possible through the overnight hours, before winds quickly
strengthen again by Friday morning.

Persistently strong cold advection should allow for ample mechanical
mixing of the higher momentum flow aloft, aided further by a PV
anomaly passing overhead through the afternoon. This all points
to a period of very strong winds, especially considering H7-H85
flow approaching and exceeding the 99th percentile climo.
Northwest wind gusts should rapidly exceed 60 miles per hour by
late morning across the entire area, and will approach 65 miles
per hour at times. This will lead to difficult travel for high
profile and lightweight vehicles, especially on east to west
routes. This will also lead to a very brisk day, with wind chill
values remaining in the single digits to teens through the
afternoon hours.

As the upper low quickly progresses off to the east Friday
morning, very cold air aloft will be in place in its wake. This
will lead to steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and this
looks to be adequate to generate snow showers across portions of
the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Any snow showers will
lead to rapid and significant reductions in visibility when
combined with the strong northwest winds. Though any
accumulations look to remain light (less than 1") hazardous
travel is possible for portions of north central Nebraska
tomorrow. These snow showers persist into the evening, before
beginning to wane overnight.

Winds begin to weaken by tomorrow evening, as strong surface high
pressure approaches the area and the surface pressure gradient
relaxes by Saturday morning. Still, gusts of 30 to 40 miles per
hour look to persist through the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Heading into Saturday, colder temps will stay in the region bringing
below normal temperatures. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday night
will be especially chilly, being in the low teens (western NE) to
single digits (north central NE). As such, combined with lingering
strong winds from the system could bring wind chill values into
the negative teens over north central NE, while also being on
the cusp of meeting cold weather advisory criteria.

An upper-level ridge will start to move in bringing a return of dry
conditions, starting over the weekend. Although Sat highs will be in
the low to upper 20s for west southwest NE, min RH in the low 20s
combined with persisting northwest winds 20 mph gusting 30 mph could
bring elevated fire concerns. On Sunday, height rises from the ridge
will bring above normal temps. Elevated fire risk, primarily far
southwest NE where min RH values in the upper 20s to low 30s, breezy
northwest winds and max temps nearing 50F make for elevated
concerns.

Monday will start off quite chilly as another reinforcing shot of
colder air will move through the area. Wind chill values in the
morning hours will drop near or below zero, especially across
portions of north central Nebraska. No precipitation is expected
with this system.

Upper level ridging will build behind this departing trough, which
will bring a return to dry conditions through the middle of next
week. Tuesday will be warmer as highs will reach the upper 40s to
low 50s in southwest Nebraska, with cooler temperatures in the
upper 30s to low 40s across the north central part of the state.
Given the lack of recent precipitation and the potential for
low relative humidity and gusty winds, there could be some fire
weather concerns, particularly across southwest Nebraska. Beyond
this, above normal high temperatures are expected Wednesday
with another cold front approaching the region on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

In a post-frontal airmass, strong north-northwesterly winds will
dominate the forecast period. Aviation impacts should be high
with surface gusts around 50 knots for much of the day Friday
and CIGs falling to MVFR if not low-end VFR. Factoring in the
threat for -SHSN and BLSN, expecting some potential for IFR at
VTN. Will carry for the bulk of the daytime Friday, however,
confidence in duration and consistency through that time frame
is limited so later forecasts could see notable changes. Winds
will likely remain strong through the late period and opted to
go aggressive with prolonged gusts given model guidance suggests
strong kinematics maintaining a mixed boundary layer beyond
Midnight Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected for areas south of
Interstate 80 Friday afternoon. Though temperatures only climb into
the middle 30s, very dry air will lead to humidity values falling
into the low 20s. This will combine with strong northwest winds
gusting as high as 60 to 65 miles per hour. The combination of dry
conditions and strong winds could lead to rapid spread of any fire
starts.

Though even colder on Saturday, very dry air will push humidity
values into the teens across much of western Nebraska. The greatest
uncertainty revolves around winds, however, with respect to any
critical fire concerns. The strongest winds are expected through
late morning, quickly weakening in the late afternoon as humidity
falls. This will limit the overlap of the strongest winds and lowest
humidity, though this will need to be monitored closely.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Friday for NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown/Labenz/MS
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion