491
FXUS63 KLBF 101119
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions appear likely for much of
western and central Nebraska on Monday with a Fire Weather
Watch now in effect.
- At least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are
expected to last through mid week. Tuesday and Wednesday both
have potential for localized near critical to critical fire
weather thresholds. Tuesday, the greater concern is for areas
east of Highway 83, with the greatest concerns on Wednesday
west of Highway 83.
- Well above seasonal temperatures are expected to last all
week and into the weekend. Some uncertainty remains in the
late week forecast, which will largely depend on a potential
plume of Gulf moisture.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Early this morning, residual showers with a few weak thunderstorms
quickly passed from west to east across southwest Nebraska. This was
associated with a disturbance that dived southeast across Wyoming
and northeast Colorado, leading to strong to severe thunderstorm
potential in these areas. An influx of drier air hampered
instability in the local area therefore the earlier severe threat
was never realized for any of the local forecast area. Rainfall
amounts also remained on the lighter side with locations remaining
at or below a tenth of an inch. Some light showers may persist in
these areas through the early morning on Sunday, but little
additional rainfall is expected.
Sunday/Sunday Night...expect a mild and dry day across the area.
High pressure will settle south into the area with westerly flow
becoming established by daybreak for much of the area as this
feature settles south. Drier air will arrive in and combined with
building mid-level heights will support eroding clouds and
seasonable temperatures. While cooler h85 temperatures will
initially settle into the area, modest warm air advection (WAA)
will resume this afternoon with steady winds around 10-20 mph.
While moisture may mix out slightly in the afternoon, the lack
of stronger mixing will prevent minimum humidity values from
falling below 25% for most if not all locations. This and
lighter winds will keep fire weather concerns low. A warm front
will lift north and east through the evening/overnight Sunday.
This will fetch richer moisture into the area and should support
another mild night. The going forecast is fairly bullish on how
cool things get with potential for increases later on. That
said, values should generally settle into the 40s for all
locations.
Monday/Monday Night...much warmer temperatures along with gusty
southwest winds have prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch
for all west central Nebraska fire weather zones. Details pertaining
to this can be found below in the fire weather discussion. The
aforementioned warm front will lift north into South Dakota as a
surface low begins to take shape over eastern Wyoming. An
approaching thermal ridge will propel h85 and h7 temperatures above
the 90th percentile. Within gusty southwest winds, afternoon highs
should quickly climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. While record
highs appear to be out of reach (96F and 98F at LBF and VTN
respectively), values are certainly in the higher percentile ranges
of each site`s climatology. Higher level clouds should filter in
through the day, but is not expected to have a significant impact on
daytime temperatures. As the surface low extends further east into
Nebraska, the pressure gradient should constrict and winds actually
strengthen heading into the evening as a stout LLJ sets up. A flip
is then expected as a crashing Pacific front settles through the
area. Further strengthening winds appear possible immediately behind
the front as pressures tendencies approach +2-4 hPa/3 hour. Precise
timing and expected magnitude of winds remains somewhat uncertain by
overall thinking is frontal passage occurs in the predawn hours
Tuesday. The persistent winds will keep lows on the mild side, with
readings only in the upper 40s to middle 50s west to east.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Winds remain gusty behind the cold front on Tuesday, with
northerly winds expected across the region. Strongest wind gusts
are expected to remain along and east of Highway 83, with gusts
up to 30 mph throughout the afternoon. Highs on Tuesday are
expected to be slightly cooler, but remain above average for
this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
expected. Even with these slightly cooler temperatures, very dry
air is expected across the region, with dewpoints in the 30s.
This will cause minimum humidity values on Tuesday afternoon to
drop at or below 20 percent across most of the region. The warm,
dry, and windy conditions bring at least elevated to near
critical fire weather concerns across most of the region. The
greatest potential for near critical to critical conditions
appears to be areas along and east of Highway 83, where stronger
wind gusts are expected.
As for Wednesday, temperatures remain well above average with highs
in the 80s across the region. Another round of dry air is expected,
with afternoon humidity values once again dropping around 20 percent
across most of the region. Southerly winds are expected across the
region, with strong wind gusts along and west of Highway 83. Gusts
across the Panhandle and western Sandhills are expected to reach
around 40 to 45 mph. The greatest concern for near critical to
critical fire weather conditions will also remain generally west of
Highway 83 with the strong wind gusts. However, at least elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns are expected across the entire
region, given the warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds.
By late week, uncertainty builds in the forecast as some question
remains on the amount of moisture tracking across the region. Latest
guidance from the deterministic GFS and ECMWF continues to suggest a
plume of Gulf moisture tracking into the region, with potential to
bring surface dewpoints into the 50s. If this is realized, then
expect higher humidity values in the afternoon, which may help limit
fire weather concerns. Additionally, a more moist environment may
support some increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms. In fact,
GEFS and European ensemble guidance are beginning to show increasing
chances for precipitation given the expected moisture plume,
bringing around a 40 percent chance of seeing measureable
precipitation. However, the NBM remains on the drier side of
guidance, suggesting potential for fire weather conditions to
continue. Much of the late week forecast will be dependent on
whether or not this moisture plume develops and also how moist the
airmass becomes. What does remain more certain is continued well
above seasonal temperatures, with potential for temperatures to
break into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday. Additionally, winds
appear to remain gusty late week, but will continue to monitor
whether or not winds reach critical fire weather thresholds. This
pattern remains for the weekend, as well, with higher confidence in
warm temperatures lasting this weekend. Still some question on
precipitation chances as well as available moisture, so will
continue to monitor forecast trends at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Westerly to northwesterly winds
will begin to prevail this morning, remaining so through the
afternoon. By the evening, winds return to light and variable across
the region. For cloud cover today, mid level clouds are expected to
persist this morning, with passing mid level clouds through the
afternoon. Though cloud cover is expected throughout most of the TAF
period, no impacts are expected to ceilings. By the evening, skies
are expected to clear.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Monday...A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Zones 204, 206,
208, 209, 210, and 219 for much of the daytime hours. Though a
lifting warm front should introduce increasing dew points early in
the day, a forming low pressure center over eastern Wyoming/the
Nebraska Panhandle will compress the pressure gradient and lead to
gusty southwest winds. These favorable winds beneath a fairly strong
thermal ridge with 1000-500 thickness values pushing 575+ dam and h7
temperatures near 8-10C. This will propel temperatures to values 15-
25F above normal for Monday. This should lead to fairly expansive
critical humidity levels as even more pessimistic output from model
blend guidance paints 15% or less afternoon humidity. This is
especially true across Zone 204 and western Zone 206 and Zone 208
where a surface trough/pseudo-dryline will push in from the west
and, coincident with the warmest temperatures in the area, will also
bring with it < 30F dew points. Winds appear to be the most
uncertain aspect of the potential event. A quick glance at multiple
NWP solutions shows fairly good agreement in h85 flow exceeding 20
knots across the area with some stronger h7 flow over northern
Nebraska. It`s this area where NBM paints 80% or greater
probabilities for exceeding 22 knot (25 mph) gusts with greater than
50% generally elsewhere. Later in the evening, winds should remain
steady if not increase slightly as a strong low-level jet forms over
the area. This will occur ahead of an approaching Pacific front that
will bring about an abrupt wind shift sometime late Monday
evening/early Tuesday morning. Gusts may increase at least briefing
in the wake of this front and the persistent winds ahead of and
behind this feature should limit humidity recovery as Tuesday
morning lows likely remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s for all of
western Nebraska.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion