977
FXUS63 KLBF 231204
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold temperatures continue through Friday into
  Saturday with Extreme Cold Warnings and additional Cold
  Weather Advisories now in effect.

- Light, steady snowfall will persist across the western
  Sandhills into portion of central Nebraska through tonight
  where up to two inches of total snow is possible.

- The cold snap continues into early next week with multiple mornings
  of sub-zero wind chills expected, but temperatures moderate
  by Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 334 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Early this morning, satellite analysis shows broad westerly flow on
the backside of deep troughing located over southeast Canada.
Beneath increasing upper-level divergence from a 100 knot h25 jet,
modest lift in the form of fgen around h7-h5 is helping support
light snow development across the Sandhills. Fighting this is
encroaching high pressure which introduced dry low-level air. Radar
imagery shows broad coverage of echoes along and north of an Arthur
to Callaway line and local automated observation points have
reported light snow on occasion, but intensity remains light with
visibilities failing to fall below three miles. Of greater concern
is the dangerous cold. Early morning readings report sub-zero air
temperatures across north central Nebraska and single digits
elsewhere. When factoring in the winds, wind chill values have
falling into the negative teens and as cold as -27F at O`Neill as of
315am CST.

Friday/Friday Night...dangerous cold will be the main concern for
the forecast period, with additional concerns heading into the
weekend and early next week. Northerly low-level flow will persist
through daybreak with gusts in the 15-20 mph range across far north
central Nebraska. As temperatures continue to fall slightly,
expecting wind chill values to reach Wind Chill Advisory criteria (-
20F or colder) for many locations and Extreme Cold Warning criteria
(-30F or colder) for a select few. Inherited cold weather headlines
were not altered through Noon CST today. Folks heading out the door
early this morning need to take adequate precautions to protect
themselves as frost bite can develop in as little as 10 minutes. At
Noon CST, the Extreme Cold Warning will drop off and will be
replaced with a Cold Weather Advisory. This, along with the initial
Cold Weather Advisory, has been extended through Noon CST Saturday.
Under cloudy skies with persistent modest cold air advection (CAA),
opted to lower forecast highs today. Leaned on colder NBM output
with a blend of NAM/MET guidance. This produced values ranging from -
5F in our northeast to 5F in our southwest. Winds will fail to go
calm and should veer to the east then southeast through the day as
high pressure passes to the north. These winds will exacerbate the
already cold temperatures with dangerous wind chills. Latest HREF
probabilities suggest 70%+ probability of seeing -10F or colder
"feels like" temperatures all day and while not meeting the true
definition of Cold Weather Advisory, opted to carry the headline to
help emphasize the cold and provide consistent messaging with
neighboring offices. Lows tonight will reach similar values, perhaps
more widespread sub-zero values. Though winds will be weaker and out
of the south, believe the threat for -20F wind chills is great
enough to warrant the continued Cold Weather Advisory for the entire
forecast area.

Regarding the snowfall...expect an increase in forcing as weak warm
air advection develops in the mid-levels later this morning. This
will promote stronger fgen and potential for more banded snowfall.
Hi-resolution guidance, notably the NAM Nest/HRRR/RAP, paint a
narrow (~30-40 mile wide) plume of greater QPF. This should come
slow and steady as HREF probabilities of exceeding 0.01"/hour rates
only reach 80% around midday before falling off quickly this
evening. The going QPF forecast closely resembles the HREF
Probability-Matched Mean value with a narrow tongue of closer to
0.10-0.15" liquid, quickly falling off to 0.05" or less beyond 40
miles of the axis. The ample cold air will support an all-snow event
with ratios generally 17-20:1 though efficiency may be limited with
poor dendritic growth zone residency. This produces the narrow band
of up to 2.5" of snow falling and closer to 0.5-1.0" elsewhere. Have
maintained the Winter Weather Advisory with no changes given fairly
light snow and lack of stronger winds during the day. This should
limit blowing/drifting and, subsequently, any greater threat for
reduced visibility. Still, caution is advised to anyone traveling as
even light snow can lead to slickness concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Saturday...Temperatures should climb quicker on Saturday as the core
of cold air takes aim on the Great Lakes and redeveloping
southwesterly flow should allow h85 values to climb some. Though
lingering snowpack and cloud cover may hamper warm up, the NBM
forecast envelope shows a notable bump day-over-day with most
locations showing a 5F jump from Friday to Saturday. While light
snow may linger in our southern zones as an h5 trough lingers over
the Central Rockies, the majority of precipitation should remain to
the south across Kansas. HREF guidance suggests the same with
probabilities of measurable precipitation quickly falling to less
than 30% by the afternoon. Forecast high temperatures are in the
teens, though confidence is medium at best as fresh snowpack tends
to hamper diurnal swings. Will need to closely evaluate this with
later forecasts.

Sunday and Monday...cold temperatures persist into early next week.
This is due to reinforcing high pressure on the Northern Plains
driving another cold front south into the area. This opens up Sunday
and Monday morning to the potential need for additional cold weather
headlines. Lows each morning will again fall below zero but stronger
winds on Monday will make it the morning of greatest concern.
Forecast wind chills fall around the -20F criteria for Cold Weather
Advisories but will delay any possible issuance until confidence
increases and we get through Saturday morning first. The arriving
front may be enough to produce some additional light snow and have
15-20% PoPs to cover this potential. Should any snow occur, little
to no accumulations are expected. Highs in the teens on Sunday will
quickly recover to the freezing mark into lower 40s for Monday
afternoon as westerly downslope flow develops behind a passing
surface trough. Just how warm things get will again depend on any
lingering snowpack so refinements are likely in the coming days.

Tuesday and beyond...broad troughing is quickly swept east as upper-
level ridging builds over the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow
locally will lead to recurring cold shots as fronts with trailing
high pressure systems pass to the north and east. This produces a
fairly large spread in temperatures with north central Nebraska
likely failing to reach the freezing mark for a few days while
southwest Nebraska touches the low to middle 40s. Overall, the
patter will favor dry conditions as the overlap of greater forcing
and appreciable moisture is limited. Ensembles indicate little
potential for measurable precipitation and this closely resembles
the latest Climate Prediction Center Outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Light snow will continue to fall across much of the central
Sandhills through portions of central Nebraska. This band of
snow will split the terminals with some southward shift later
this morning that could impact LBF. Will include a brief period
of -SN to account for this before conditions improve by mid-
afternoon. Then, from the south, additional light snow should
move in later tonight. How far north this activity makes it is
somewhat in question but will include a mention at this time and
advise following shifts to adjust as necessary. Winds remain
light, veering through the period from the northeast to the
south towards daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for
NEZ004-022>026-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday for
NEZ004-023>027-036>038-094.
Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST today for NEZ005>010-
027>029.
Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to noon CST Saturday for
NEZ005>010-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion