168
FXUS63 KLBF 141909
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
209 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snowfall across
northern Nebraska Saturday night and into Sunday.
- High confidence in gusty north northwest winds on Sunday.
-Moderate to high confidence in dry conditions along with above
normal temperatures through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Dry conditions will continue through this afternoon and into early
evening as high pressure slowly slides off to the east. Some
stronger westerly winds with gusts up to 50 mph across the
Panhandle. Gusts greater than 30 mph will be possible through the
early evening for most areas west of US-83.
The main concern in the short term will be the arrival of a winter
system tonight. This system will bring the potential for snow across
northern Nebraska as well as strong winds to much of north central
and western Nebraska. As this system tracks eastward tonight,
precipitation on the northern and western sides of the low will
bring some much needed precipitation to portions of northern
Nebraska. Precipitation will develop early this evening as the front
begins to push into the region. Showers become more widespread by
late evening and into the overnight hours for areas generally along
and north of a line from Ogallala to O`Neill. With temperatures
above freezing through at least Midnight CT, precipitation will
remain all liquid. Colder temperatures begin to push into the region
after Midnight allowing a changeover to rain/snow and eventually all
snow. The best potential for accumulating snow will still exist
across northern Nebraska, basically north of US-20. Up to 2 inches
could be seen in these areas with the heaviest snowfall across Holt
and Boyd counties where up to 3 inches could be possible. Have
issued a Winter Storm Warning for these two counties to account for
the heavier snowfall. For counties eastward through Cherry county as
well as Garfield and Wheeler counties, have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory as slightly lesser amounts are expected. A very sharp
gradient will exist on the southern end of the system, however,
where this gradient/cut-off sets up is still uncertain. Adjustments
in the winter headlines may be needed if the gradient sets up more
south or north of current thinking.
In addition to snowfall, this system will bring some very gusty
winds to the region tonight and into Sunday as the low begins to
deepen and push through the central Plains. Most locations will see
at least 55 mph wind gusts with several places across southwest and
north central Nebraska seeing up to 65 to 70 mph. Have upgraded the
entire forecast area to a High Wind Warning due to these very strong
wind gusts. This will create counties across the north with both a
High Wind Warning and a winter headline. Have gone this option
instead of issuing a blizzard warning at this time as confidence
remains fairly low that visibility will drop below 1/4 mile for more
than 3 hours. Still, these strong wind gusts will create localized
areas of blowing and drifting snow as well as decreased visibility
in falling and blowing snow. Expect some travel difficulties as
well, even after the snow has ended by late afternoon as stronger
winds continue into early evening before diminishing.
Behind the departing system, much colder air will push into the
region. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the single digits across
northern Nebraska with wind chill values approaching 15 to 18 below
zero. While not quite headline criteria, this cold air combined with
recent snowfall will make for some bitter conditions Sunday night
and into Monday morning. If temperatures drop a few more degrees or
winds increase a little Sunday night, headlines may need to be
considered.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
High pressure will build back into the region early next week
bringing with it a return to dry and warmer conditions. Temperatures
will gradually warm back up through mid-week, with highs returning
back into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Latest probabilities of
seeing over 85 degrees on Thursday are above 50 percent for much of
north central Nebraska and even up to 90 percent for locations south
of I-80. The probability of seeing over 90 degrees is still over 50
percent for much of southwest Nebraska. Latest EFI remains high (0.8
to 0.9) with marginal SoT (between 0 and 1) increasing confidence
that more extreme, potentially record-breaking, maximum temperatures
may occur on Thursday. Therefore, would not be surprised to see
temperatures increase in the next day or two. Speaking of records,
record highs currently sit at 90, 85, 86, and 87 at North Platte,
Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial respectively. If temperatures do
increase into the upper 80s to low 90s by late week, most if not all
of these sites will have the opportunity to break new records. EFI
and SoT values remain high through next Saturday which only
increases confidence that the warm temperatures will continue
through the first part of next weekend.
There is a low end chance of some isolated precipitation on Monday
night and into Tuesday as a shortwave pushes across the northern
Plains. At this time, confidence is low in development and any
precipitation that does develop is expected to be light with little
in the way of QPF. Therefore, confident in continuing to advertise a
generally dry forecast through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
For the KLBF terminal: West southwest winds increase this
afternoon and will gust to around 30 KTS. Winds shift to the
northwest then north-northwest tonight with gusts approaching
45 KTS. By late morning Sunday wind gusts will approach 50 KTS a
the terminal. Ceilings will be broken to overcast tonight
through Sunday morning with ceilings ranging from 2500 to 7000
FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Winds will shift from the
southeast to the northeast then north through mid evening with
wind speeds generally around 15 to 20 KTS. After 06z winds will
increase from the north with gusts up to 40 KTS overnight. Wind
speeds will increase further up to 45 KTS Sunday morning. Snow
and blowing snow is expected at the terminal after 08z with
visibilities generally 1 to 3 miles. After 12z Sunday morning,
periodic visibilities down to 1/2 mile are expected with snow
and blowing snow.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
High Wind Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 7
PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-
056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening
to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ005-006-008-009-028-029-
094.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT
Sunday for NEZ007-010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion