231
FXUS63 KLBF 140513
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in critical fire conditions through early this
evening.

- Moderate confidence in precipitation potential Tuesday night into
Wednesday

- Low to moderate confidence in a return to near-critical fire
conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return.

- Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with
a low confidence of some light accumulating snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026


Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the remainder of today
as upper level ridging begins to slide off to the east.
Increasing precipitation chances returns on Tuesday as a
developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push
eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the
south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the
majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential,
to the south and east. Regardless, some of the hi-res models
show some more organized convection developing across portions
of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that
these storms are not expected to be severe as the better
instability and forcing remains to the southeast, but some of
the storms could produce some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph
or small hail. Overall, any precipitation we receive on Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning will be more stratiform in nature
and sub-severe. QPF amounts with these showers will generally be
under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch
(0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms.
The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between
mid-afternoon (3pm CT) and late evening (10-11pm CT). Some
lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into
the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and
intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours.

For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop
temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Even though temperatures will fall about 10 degrees from
today`s highs in the low 80s, these highs will still be nearly 10
degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain at least 5 to
10 degrees above normal from tonight through Wednesday night in the
upper 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging
builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb
temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to
easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be
nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest
probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees
to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83.
Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same
area still has a nearly 60 to 70 percent or higher probability.
Therefore, confidence is high that these very warm, unseasonable
temperatures will occur on Thursday. Would even expect the going
forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few
days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region.

The warm and dry conditions will be brief as the next system arrives
Friday lasting into Saturday. An upper level low will deepen over
Wyoming on Friday and pivot across the northern high Plains into
Saturday. This low and associated front will bring some
precipitation to the region beginning as early as Friday morning
across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation
will gradually push south and east throughout the day. There is
still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut
off line will be. For the most part, will expect mostly all rain
during the day, with the Pine Ridge region possibly seeing snow as
temperatures remain cooler in that area. Still, maximum temperatures
are expected to rise into the low 40s in the Pine Ridge which may
inhibit any snow. Once the sun sets in the evening, any lingering
precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will
be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any
precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures
drop enough for snow to develop. Looking at the latest
probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see
accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly
north and west of a Chappell to Valentine line. Accumulations are
still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few
days.

Beyond Friday night, upper level ridging builds back across the
western US with surface high pressure returning to the central
Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. Cold air advection
will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska
keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Temperatures gradually
warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into
the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Expect scattered to broken high clouds around 20000 FT AGL to
persist into the morning hours Tuesday. Ceilings will lower to
around 10000 FT AGL Tuesday afternoon with an increased threat
for light rain showers across the area. Scattered coverage is
expected and will handle mention with a prob 30 group this
evening. Ceilings with the showers should fall off to around
5000 FT AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Critical fire weather concerns are expected through this evening as
RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will continue to
drop over the next few hours before bottoming out near 10 percent by
late afternoon. The lowest RH values will generally be across
southwest Nebraska into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills.
Westerly winds are currently gusting near 30 mph already and are
anticipated to increase as high as 35 to 40 mph by late afternoon
before beginning to diminish after sunset. A Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect through mid-evening due to these strong winds,
lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn.

Increased moisture due to precipitation chances on Tuesday eventing
and into Wednesday will keep fire concerns low through mid-week.
However, a return to dry, warm, and windy conditions will bring a
return to near-critical fire concerns on Thursday. Stay tuned to the
latest forecasts for additional fire concerns heading into late this
week.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion