000
FXUS63 KLBF 010455
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1055 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warming up Thursday.

- Strong winds possible Friday into Friday evening behind a cold
  frontal passage

- Falling afternoon temperatures expected Friday behind the cold
  front

- A slight chance for light snow Friday across the far northwest
  Sandhills

_ Still monitoring the potential for light snow Monday into
  Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

For tonight, surface high pressure will move east into the Midwest,
with a brisk return of southerly winds 10 to 20 mph. Lows reach the
mid teens to lower 20s. Wind chills as low as the low single digits.

A transitory upper level ridge will move across the region Thursday
as an upper trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into portions of
the Great Basin. A warm front will lift into central SD bringing
warm air advection and much warmer temperatures. Kept highs near
previous forecast from the upper 40s to lower 50s, as existing
snow cover affects highs.

The upper trough will cross the Rockies Thursday night, driving as
cold front southward through northeast WY and northwest SD. Lows
not as cold ranging in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

By Friday, the upper trough will begin moving into the Northern and
Central Plains. A cold front will move quickly southeast through the
forecast area. Models are now faster with the cold front passage,
which will result in mid morning highs across the northwest
Sandhills and noon to early afternoon highs across the southeast.
Highs from the upper 30s northwest to near 50 southwest may be
optimistic, as falling afternoon temperatures occur. Will see strong
winds behind the front late Friday afternoon and evening. The GFS
bufkit sounding shows H80 winds near 50 kts, supportive of wind
gusts to around 40 mph possible.

Colder Saturday as the upper trough and cold front move east
through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Highs from 35 to 45 with a
breezy southwest wind in the afternoon.

Warming up Sunday with nearly zonal flow aloft. Highs Sunday
warming to the low 40s to lower 50s. An upper trough will
deepen across the Great Basin Sunday night with a large area
of deep low pressure across Canada, centered over Hudson Bay. The
main upper trough over Canada will drop southward as a
disturbance from the Central Rockies crosses the region Monday
into Tuesday. The current forecast is dry, however there is a low
potential for light snow we will continue to monitor. A cold front
early Monday to bring colder temperatures. Highs by next Tuesday
only forecast to reach the mid 20s northeast to near 40 far
southwest. Moderating temperatures to follow next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2022

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Gusty
surface winds at VTN will linger through early Thursday morning.
Wind shear will also be prevalent at both terminals until just
prior to sunrise. Only passing high clouds above 20k feet AGL are
expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion