013
FXUS63 KLBF 010539
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1139 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow will quickly exit north central Nebraska this evening,
with dry conditions then expected into early next week.
- Another round of light snow is possible Tuesday morning
across north central Nebraska, though little to no
accumulation is expected at this time.
- Mild temperatures (40s to 50s) are expected for much of the
upcoming week, with near record highs (middle to upper 60s)
possible Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Currently, light to moderate snow continues to move quickly east
across portions of north central Nebraska, leading to light
accumulations of up to 1". Precipitation has largely ended for areas
west of HWY 183, and these dry conditions are expected to continue
into tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures range from the upper teens
in north central Nebraska to the low 50s west of HWY 61. These
warmer temperatures are found behind a frontal boundary pushing into
the western Sandhills.
For areas east of HWY 183, snow will persist for a few more hours
and lead to light accumulations of around 1". With gusty south
winds, some visibility concerns will continue as blowing snow can be
expected as snow falls. Impacts from the snow has been minimal
further west, as clearing skies and warming temperatures has rapidly
melted any snow that fell earlier this morning and afternoon.
Continued warm advection overnight boosts lows 10-20 degrees above
those observed this morning, into the upper teens to 20s.
Upper ridging then amplifies across the western CONUS as we head
into Sunday, with northwest flow establishing aloft. This points to
a return of drier conditions tomorrow, along with quickly moderating
highs as westerly low-level flow strengthens. The boost in warm
advection pushes highs into the upper 40s to 50s for areas west of
HWY 183. Highs only climb into the upper 30s further east.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
Upper ridging remains the dominant feature as we head into early
next week, as it remains in place across the western US. This will
lead to temperatures above average each day, along with continued
dry conditions. The lone exception to this could be on Tuesday
morning, as a weak shortwave traverses the apex of the ridge and
into the Dakotas. Guidance hints at a round of light snow in
association with this, primarily across portions of north central
Nebraska. Confidence in this remains low for now, with probabilities
of >0.1" of snow only peaking around 20-30% along the HWY 20
corridor. Increasing this threshold to >0.5", and probabilities
remain 10% or less for areas near the HWY 281 corridor. Trends will
continue to be monitored, though impacts look to remain limited at
best at this time.
Attention then turns to an increasing threat for fire weather by
late week. The day of greatest concern looks to be Thursday, as this
will be the warmest of the forecast period. A growing number of
ensemble members suggest anomalously warm highs for Thursday,
with even the 50th percentile NBM painting records (upper 60s)
for much of western and southwest Nebraska. The current forecast
sits near the 25th percentile of the guidance envelope, and
will almost certainly need to be adjusted upwards as confidence
grows. The combination of these near record temperatures, dry
conditions, and breezy northwest winds could lead to near-
critical fire concerns for much of the area. The dry and mild
conditions then look to persist into next weekend, albeit not
quite as warm as Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026
VFR conditions will continue through Sunday evening across all
of western and north central Nebraska. Northwesterly LLWS is
also expected until 13Z Sunday across portions of north central
Nebraska including the KVTN terminal.
Light westerly winds below 10kts overnight will become northwest
by 17Z Sunday, with gusts to 20 kts at KVTN, diminishing to
below 10kts by 21z. Light and variable winds after 23Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion