522
FXUS63 KLBF 080534
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening, mainly across western Nebraska

- Additional chances for scattered thunderstorm will be possible
  Wednesday late afternoon and evening and again Thursday

- Potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday

- Hot temperatures return by the weekend, nearing 100 degrees by
  mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances
both today and Wednesday. Today`s thunderstorm chances,
confidence remains low in if there will be enough shear to
maintain thunderstorms, leading to lower confidence. There is a
CAP in place that is expected to remain at least through much of
the afternoon, which will limit storm development for the
afternoon but should start to see the CAP erode by late
afternoon/early evening across western Nebraska as the trof
moves in from the west. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s and 60s
as southerly winds will continue to advect moisture into the
area this afternoon. Better moisture convergence across the
northwest Sandhills, thus greater confidence that should a storm
develop it will be able to maintain itself across the northwest
Sandhills where the greater moisture axis exist. 0 to 6 km
shear is marginal around 20 to 25 kts, but CAPE is sufficient
around 1200 to 1800 J/kg. A storm or two could become strong to
severe with hail and strong winds being the main hazard, the
greatest potential for severe storms will generally be north of
HWY 2 in closer proximity to a warm front.


There will be another chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Wednesday looks to be a better chance for
more scattered potential for storm development with a better
environment. As a frontal boundary moves southward across Nebraska
with CAPE values around 2200 to nearing 3000 J/kg. Shear will also
be better with 0 to 6 km shear around 35 to 40 kts. The greatest
threat for convection development will be across western Nebraska
into southwest Nebraska focused near the advancing front. There will
be the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail with a
secondary threat of heavy rainfall with a slight risk of for areas
generally along and east of HWY 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

There will be another chance for thunderstorms on Thursday
afternoon/evening, potentially more scattered to widespread as a
shortwave trof translates across the region. The environment
will be favorable for more organized storm development as there
will be greater forcing and shear along with continued moisture
advection into the area. Again the main hazards will be the
strong winds and large hail threat, but most of western and
north central Nebraska is outlooked by WPC for a slight risk of
excessive rainfall as well, so will need to monitor the
potential risk for flooding, depending how the storms develop
today and tomorrow.

Beyond Thursday, will start to see an upper level ridge building in
from the west heading into the weekend with temperatures reaching
the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level ridge becomes
centered over the Central Plains CONUS by early next week
remaining over the area through the late next week. Confidence
continues to increase in seeing temperatures upper 90s to
potentially nearing 100 degrees by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Decaying convection to the west will shift multiple outflow
boundaries east through western Nebraska. These should bring
wind shifts and brief gusty winds as a result before subsiding.

The majority of the overnight should remain VFR with the threat
of light rain likely remaining VFR conditions should anything
approach KVTN. Towards daybreak, NWP guidance hints at IFR/LIFR
conditions across far northern Nebraska. NAM/HRRR both suggest
this potential so inserted a quick TEMPO group to account for
this. It is entirely plausible this remains north of the
airspace and could be removed with future amendments. Will
monitor trends. VFR conditions are likely for much if not the
remainder of the forecast period. Diurnal cumulus should form
over KLBF and will lead to low-end VFR conditions. Later
Wednesday night, convection will again form to the west and
threaten southwest Nebraska, including KLBF. Coverage is in
question at this time so will insert another PROB30 to account
for this.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion