577
FXUS63 KLBF 152348
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
548 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures remain roughly 25 to 30 degrees above average
  Monday and Tuesday, and remain about 15 degrees above average
  on Wednesday.

- A mostly dry forecast is expected through late week. Although
  there is a slight chance of rain showers across northern
  Nebraska Tuesday night, confidence in wetting rainfall remains
  low.

- Near critical to critical fire weather concerns remain through
  Wednesday, with the highest concern on Tuesday afternoon. A
  combination of well above average high temperatures, low
  humidity, and gusty winds are expected through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Winds decrease this evening as a low level inversion develops,
leading to light and variable winds across all of western and north
central Nebraska overnight. Skies are expected to fluctuate from
partly to mostly cloudy, with mostly high cloud cover. With these
conditions, expecting temperatures to cool to around freezing
overnight across most of the area. Overnight humidity is fairly
split across the region. West of Highway 83 lower dew points are
expected, with dew points in the teens. This will cause overnight
humidity to recover to around 50 percent. However, east of Highway
83, dew points are expected to remain in the 20s, bringing overnight
humidity values around 70 to 90 percent. Forecast soundings across
southwest Nebraska suggest a strong low level inversion, with light
winds and very dry air above the moist low levels. This may be the
catalyst for some areas of fog across portions of southwest
Nebraska, however, confidence remains low in placement and timing,
as these sounding suggest fog for a few hours at most before mixing
out.

Skies clear out by Monday morning and temperatures quickly warm mid
morning into the early afternoon. As with the previous days, the NBM
deterministic forecast remained on the cooler side of guidance,
between the 10th and 25th percentile. Given that our highs the past
few days have exceeded this often by early afternoon, have opted to
bring highs closer to the 50th percentile, pushing forecast highs
into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region. This remains
around 25 to 30 degrees above average across most of the region
Monday afternoon.

With these abnormally warm temperatures Monday afternoon, afternoon
relative humidity values are expected to drop at or below 20 percent
across most of the region. WInds remain fairly light on Monday,
though, generally around 5 to 10 mph. A few gusts up to 20 mph are
possible across the Panhandle for a few hours. These lighter winds
will generally limit greater fire weather concerns, with elevated
conditions at best.

Overnight Monday, southwesterly flow aloft will bring some
additional mid to high level moisture, increasing cloud cover. This
will help keep overnight lows on the warmer side, ranging from the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Also expecting better humidity recovery Monday
night, with most of the region recovering to at least 70 percent
humidity. Again will need to be keeping an eye on portions of north
central and central Nebraska, where overnight humidity over 90
percent and lighter overnight winds could lead to additional areas
of patchy fog into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Tuesday remains the period of focus in the long term, as near
critical to critical fire weather conditions are most likely Tuesday
afternoon. Warmer overnight lows on Monday will give Tuesday`s
temperatures a "head start" as afternoon highs climb 25 and in some
cases 35 degrees above seasonal average. Again, NBM deterministic
values remained on the low end of guidance, so blended these highs
closer to the 50th percentile solution. Also worth mentioning that
as westerly, downslope flow increases Tuesday morning, clouds
rapidly clear out and our lower level humidity rapidly drops. This
will also support much warmer temperatures on Tuesday, and in fact
may again challenge daily highs across southwest Nebraska
(specifically at North Platte and Broken Bow).

As mentioned above, the westerly, downslope flow will quickly dry
out the lower layers of the atmosphere, with afternoon humidity
values dropping a or below 15 percent across the Panhandle,
Sandhills, and southwest Nebraska. From roughly Highway 183 and
east, humidity drops to around 20 to 25 percent. Strong, westerly
winds are also expected, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph,
gusting up to 45 mph. All of this combined brings high confidence in
critical fire weather conditions across most of the area, with at
least near critical conditions across the entire area. Will continue
to refine the wind forecast in the long term, as there is some
question in the eastward extent of the strongest wind gusts. While
no fire weather headlines have been issued for Tuesday at this time,
if the forecast remains on track, headlines will most likely be
needed, especially across the Panhandle, Sandhills, and southwest
Nebraska.

Something else to keep in mind for Tuesday is the low pressure
system tracking across South Dakota. Latest guidance suggests a more
northerly track, which may clip a cold front into far northern
Nebraska. Even if this front clips into the region, highs on Tuesday
remain well above average. However, there is some suggestion that
this frontal passage will provide sufficient forcing for some light
rain showers across the South Dakota-Nebraska border. However,
forecast soundings continue to suggest very dry low layers, so even
if any precipitation were to form aloft, most likely it will fall as
virga, evaporating before reaching the ground. Slightly better
chances may occur east of Highway 281, as the profile remains
slightly more moist, but if any precipitation were to fall,
expecting at most it may be a few hundredths of an inch.

The exact track of the low and the cold front Tuesday evening and
overnight will greatly determine how Wednesday`s weather unfolds. As
for now, another day of above average temperatures are expected, but
behind the cold front, these highs are only around 15 degrees above
average. Again, a very dry lower layer is expected, with most of the
region at or below 20 percent relative humidity. Westerly winds are
expected to shift to northerly as the front tracks through the
region, and some gusty conditions may persist. What remains in
question is the timing of the front, which leaves some uncertainty
in the amount of time gusty winds and low relative humidity overlap.
Additionally, may see some greater cloud cover building in on
Wednesday as well. All this to say, near critical to critical fire
weather values may also occur on Wednesday, but need to see how the
timing of the front works out to raise confidence in any headline
decisions.

By the end of the week, a broad upper level trough tracks across the
western United States, with guidance suggesting two shortwaves in
the greater flow. This is expected to bring a surface low across the
Plains, which increases our chances for precipitation. While there
has been a fairly consistent pattern tracking across South Dakota,
some question still remains on the southern extent into northern
Nebraska. Ensemble guidance continues to have disagreements between
the European and GEFS, with the European being a bit more optimistic
on precipitation into northern Nebraska. However, this is looking to
be a light precipitation event. Both ensembles show a roughly 60 to
90 percent chance of measureable rainfall, but become more spread in
solutions when looking at one tenth of an inch or more. The European
ensemble remains optimistic, with around a 60 to 70 percent chance
of a tenth of an inch across the northern Sandhills, while the GEFS
only goes to around 20 percent in the Sandhills, with a 30 percent
chance along the border. While there is some disagreement in the
precipitation amounts, there is confidence in this system bringing
cooler temperatures, returning us to near seasonal highs. These
cooler temperatures will also introduce a potential chance for any
falling precipitation to switchover to snow. While the spread in
ensembles remains largely driven by the QPF forecast, low end GEFS
is around 40 percent, with the European up to 80 percent for at
least one inch of snowfall across northern Nebraska and the northern
Sandhills. This looks to be the area`s best chance for some wetting
precipitation before another ridge is forecast to track into the
region late weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Winds will gradually subside this evening, falling to less than
15 knots for all areas by early Monday morning. Skies will
remain partly to mostly cloudy as high level clouds stream west
to east through the area. Tomorrow, winds will become light and
variable for the late morning before favoring more southeasterly
by late afternoon with speeds at or below 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are being observed this afternoon
across western and north central Nebraska, as relative humidity
values dip into the middle teens and southwest winds increase. By
evening, expecting that a low level inversion will decouple the
boundary layer, limiting winds to light and variable.

The next concern for critical fire weather conditions is Tuesday
afternoon, with highest confidence across the Panhandle, Sandhills,
and southwest Nebraska. Westerly, downslope flow will support
abnormally warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds. Will
continue to refine the wind forecast for Tuesday, as there is some
uncertainty in the eastern and northern extent of strongest wind
gusts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion