020
FXUS63 KLBF 151955
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
255 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions until early this evening,
  mainly west of Highway 83 due to gusty northwest winds and
  very low humidity.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening and
  again Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Cooler with additional showers and a few thunderstorms Monday,
  then drier and remaining cooler through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Until early evening, critical fire weather concerns continue, west
of Highway 83. Min RH will be very low near 10 percent across the
Sandhills into the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with
northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gust to 25 mph becoming northerly
early evening.

Tonight, a weak cold front will become located east of the area,
from near Sioux City IA through Hill City KS and become a focus for
thunderstorms this evening. Behind the front, across western NE, dry
conditions expected. Light northerly winds this evening will become
easterly later tonight. Lows 45 to 50. Synoptically, an upper trough
axis will move through the West Coast as the upper flow becomes
slightly southwesterly across the region.

Saturday into Saturday night, a large upper trough will deepen
across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. This will bring an
increasingly amplified southwesterly flow aloft across western NE as
surface low pressure deepens across southeast CO and southwest KS,
and southeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

A distinct shortwave disturbance in the H5 flow is shown to reach
far southeast WY through west central KS by late Saturday afternoon.
This will set up a warm front from far southeast WY through
northeast CO and northern KS. As noted by the previous forecast
shift, an initial round of storms may initiate by afternoon across
southwest into central NE within the instability gradient, where
MUCAPEs range around 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear increases to 40
to 50 kts. A second round will likely develop along the instability
gradient across far northeast CO and northwest KS by late afternoon.
MUCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg and easterly low level flow north
of the warm front beneath moderately strong mid-level flow will
promote strong deep-layer shear. Dewpoints will also rise into the
50s south of Interstate 80. So while surface based storms will occur
through mid evening, storms should become elevated as the boundary
layer becomes less unstable with MUCAPEs concentrated in the H85 to
H7 layer.

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) Saturday afternoon and evening
which encompasses much of the forecast area, south of an Alliance
through Springview line. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) resides
near and south of Interstate 80. Large hail, damaging winds and an
isolated tornado are all possible afternoon to mid evening, with
large hail and damaging winds mid through late evening. SPC denotes
significant hatching for both (2"+ diameter hail and 80+ mph gusts).
The tornado threat is 5% near and south of Grant through Wellfleet,
where low-level shear, lower LCL heights, and dewpoints into the 50s
reside. A 2% tornado threat further north to near Highways 2 and 91.
Timing favors late afternoon until mid evening for surface based
activity. Still though, favorable 0-3km shear vectors favorably
oriented with any potential MCS could support a brief QLCS tornado
later into the evening.

As this disturbance lifts northeast Saturday night, likely to
categorical POPs are forecast. NBM mean QPF for Saturday night has
increased and is now a quarter to around a half inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday, the upper trough axis will move into central MT, south into
southern NV. This will drive a cold front to near Bassett through
North Platte by late afternoon, with south winds turning southwest
ahead of the front. Deep surface low pressure as low as 988MB will
extend from south central NE back across wrn KS into sern CO.
MUCAPEs should range from 1500-3500 J/kg across the area, with the
highest CAPE values near and east of Highway 83. Deep layer shear
near 45kts near the surface front. This environment is favorable for
organized surface based thunderstorm development near and ahead of
the front, which will pose a threat for severe weather, including
isolated very large hail (2+inch diameter) damaging winds, and an
isolated tornado.

SPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) east of Valentine
through Grant, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for areas east
of an line from Bassett through North Platte and Hayes Center. The
environment will be supportive of organized severe storms back
behind the front as well, with large hail, and damaging winds in
afternoon and evening hours. The cold front should advance east of
the forecast area after midnight with the severe threat diminishing.

Monday, the upper trough axis will lift into the Northern and
Central Plains with showers and a few thunderstorms likely.
Northerly winds gusty from 20 to 30 mph. The severe threat should be
east of the area. Highs will be much cooler from mid and upper 40s
40s northwest Sandhills, to the upper 50s to low 60s far southeast.
Showers end Monday night with clearing skies the threat for freezing
temperatures from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Cool weather Tuesday/Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday only in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Could see cold lows again as low as 30 to the mid
30s Tuesday night, especially across the west.

Low intermittent shower chances Wednesday through Friday within west
northwest flow aloft. Highs in the 60s Wednesday warm into the 70s
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Northwest winds
may approach 20 knots at KLBF this afternoon, becoming light
northeast this evening. SKC this afternoon, becoming SCT250
tonight. SCT150 BKN200 Saturday morning. Easterly winds Saturday
morning increase, with gusts approaching 20 knots by the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion