585
FXUS63 KLBF 041121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Today with the greatest
  threat over northern Nebraska where a slight risk (Level 2
  out of 5) exists.

- The severe threat shifts east and southeast for Friday with a
  slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) generally east of a line from
  Curtis, to Ansley, to Bartlett.

- Much warmer Saturday with highs in the 90s. Thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
  Upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday, then warming back into the lower
  to mid 90s Tuesday and upper 90s to near 100 Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over southeastern
Saskatchewan with a trough extending south into eastern Colorado.
East of the trough, high pressure was positioned over western
Tennessee with ridging extending north-northeast into the eastern
Great Lakes. East of this high pressure and ridge was a closed low
off the Carolina coast. Across the western third of the CONUS, low
amplitude flow extended west to the Pacific coast. There was a
shortwave trough present over Washington State which was part of an
upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska. Closer to western and north
central Nebraska, embedded disturbances in the high plains trough,
were present across central South Dakota, western Nebraska and
western Kansas. These shortwaves combined with a frontal boundary
draped from western Nebraska into South Dakota, producing
thunderstorms over the eastern half of South Dakota and northern
Nebraska tonight. Another area of storms in association with a weak
disturbance over eastern Colorado and western Kansas, was located
over Southwestern into South Central Nebraska overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Today through Friday...Precipitation chances and a
continued severe threat today and this evening are the main forecast
challenges in the near term. Residual convection will exit eastern
areas by daybreak this morning. The frontal boundary, currently
draped across northwestern portions of the forecast area, will lift
north this morning, becoming anchored over southern South Dakota
into northwestern Nebraska. Later this afternoon as instability
increases and a shortwave trough lifts into the western Dakotas and
the Nebraska Panhandle, thunderstorms should initiate INVOF the
surface frontal boundary. With the front expected to lie over
southern South Dakota and far northwestern Nebraska this afternoon,
this will be the favored area for precipitation chances this
afternoon into tonight. This is also supported by the latest NBM
ensemble forecast which has a near zero threat for precipitation
generally south of Highway 92 today and tonight. That being said,
will go with near zero pops across the southern third of the
forecast area with the best chances across northern Nebraska. As for
the severe threat, there are two areas of concern: The first over
northwestern Nebraska INVOF the frontal boundary, and the second
area is across the central and eastern panhandle INVOF of a weak
surface convergent boundary. As for severe modes later today, large
hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats as there is
adequate deep layer shear. There is also a small threat for
tornadoes, particularly across northwestern Nebraska where low level
helicities are more favorable. Convection is expected to persist
into the late evening and possibly overnight hours thanks to the
development of a low level jet. By Friday, the main precipitation
threat will shift off to the east and southeast of the area. A cold
front will sag south through the area Friday, becoming anchored
from south central Nebraska into east central Nebraska by afternoon.
South of the front, highs will reach into the 90s and decent
southerly winds will push 70+ dew points into portions of central
and eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon. The latest NAM12 soln has SB
CAPES above 5000J/KG Friday afternoon just off to the east of the
forecast area. 4000+CAPES lie along and east of a line from Curtis
to Ansley. Deep layer shear increases from central into eastern
Nebraska Friday with 25 to 30 KTS noted in far southeastern portions
of the forecast area. That being said, decided to confine pops to
far southeastern portions of the forecast area Friday. This
precipitation threat may need to be modified based on expected
frontal position late Friday with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

On Saturday, upper ridging will occur from the Central and Northern
Plains into western Ontario Canada. Models indicate a weak upper low
over west Texas within the upper ridge. Back to the west, an upper
trough will extend over the Pacific Northwest and West Coast.
Surface low pressure will be fairly deep from eastern MT south
through WY into CO. This will bring windy conditions to western
Nebraska with southeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Much warmer with highs
95 to 99 in the west, and low 90s east. Dry conditions Saturday
through Saturday night.

Sunday, a weak closed upper low will lift from central Kansas into
eastern Nebraska, bring an increase in cloudiness and atmospheric
moisture. Highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s, except near 95 far
western zones. Meanwhile the upper trough will move into the
Northern Plains and bring lows POPS beginning Sunday afternoon,
lasting into Monday evening. The best opportunity appears to be
Sunday night, when a surface trough of low pressure moves east.
Also expecting windy conditions Sunday, with south to southeast
winds 20 to 30 mph.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a strong warmup is expected as an upper
trough deepens across the Western U.S, and an upper ridge
extends from Texas up through the Western Great Lakes. Highs
heat up into the low to mid 90s Tuesday and upper 90s to near
100 Wednesday. Breezy south winds each day. Look dry, except for
a limited opportunity Tuesday night across the Sandhills into
north central Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

IFR ceilings continue at KOGA and KIML in southwest NE early
this morning, which should remain west of KLBF and improve to
VFR by 15Z. At KLBF, expect BKN200 to become SCT250 for this
afternoon and evening. Winds to remain light south to southeast
12KT or less. At KVTN, FEW250 with a south wind increasing to
17013G20KT after 18Z. Isolated severe storms are possible across
northern NE after 22Z. Included VCTS for KVTN at 00Z until 04Z.
Confidence remains too low to include as a TEMPO or prevailing.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion