369
FXUS63 KLBF 211129
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A combination of warm and very dry conditions will lead to
 elevated to near critical fire weather concerns today.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible along a dryline
  positioned across western Nebraska on Wednesday afternoon and
  evening. A few storms could be strong to severe. West of the
  dryline, critical fire weather conditions are possible.

- Fire weather concerns Thursday and potentially Friday as well.

- Continues to look like this weekend we`ll receive some decent
  precipitation amounts. Wet snow will be possible across mainly
  northwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently, temperatures range from the upper 40s in northwest
Nebraska to the upper 60s in central Nebraska under partly to mostly
clear skies. Winds are light and variable, with weak surface high
pressure positioned across western Nebraska.

For today, expect another very warm and dry day across western and
north central Nebraska. Anomalously warm air remains in place aloft,
with H85 temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile climo. Despite
much weaker winds today, more than adequate deep layer mixing is
still expected and highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Very dry air remains in place, and dewpoints will again
fall into the single digits to teens for all this afternoon. Despite
this, southerly winds 10 to 20 miles per hour look to preclude any
fire weather headlines for now.

Attention then turns to a much more active day across the area
Wednesday. Aloft, a deep upper low will begin to move east across
the Intermountain West, reaching western South Dakota by early
Thursday morning. At the surface, deep lee cyclogenesis begins
across eastern Wyoming/northeastern Colorado by Wednesday afternoon.
As this occurs, southerly flow will quickly strengthen across all of
western and north central Nebraska. This will lead to at least
modest moisture advection into the area, with dewpoints climbing
into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday morning. By the afternoon,
a dryline will be positioned somewhere near the HWY 61 corridor.
Near and behind the dryline, critical fire weather conditions look
to be a near certainty, with very warm and dry conditions
overlapping strong southwest winds. Further east, uncertainty
increases with respect to the degree of mixing Wednesday afternoon.
Recent high-res guidance has come into better agreement with much
deeper mixing ahead of the dryline, and this would increase fire
concerns markedly across much of the area. The biggest question mark
to this revolves around surface winds gradually backing to the
southeast with time as the surface low deepens, and this could limit
the mixing somewhat. That said, with the antecedent dry soil
conditions and the moisture not being overly deep, confidence is
slowly growing in a much deeper mixed warm sector Wednesday. With
this in mind, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of western
and northern Nebraska in collaboration with neighboring offices.
Opted to not include central and south central Nebraska for now,
though further expansions may be needed should confidence in the
moisture being mixed out further east grow.

Should the deeper mixing scenario occur, concern would grow in high
based convection off the dryline by late afternoon. Though
instability remains somewhat meager in this scenario, any lingering
inhibition looks to be eroded by late afternoon. With a very deep
dryline circulation in place, at least scattered thunderstorm
initiation would be possible. A glance at the high-res guidance that
does show the deeper mixing shows a threat for damaging winds in any
thunderstorms, with very deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles ahead
of the dryline. Some threat for dry lightning would be possible as
well, and further supports the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. A
less confident, though still plausible scenario would revolve around
lesser deep mixing ahead of the dryline. This would keep dewpoints
in the upper 40s to low 50s through late afternoon, and could
support a threat for supercells off the dryline given the magnitude
of deep layer shear. Though low confidence, this would be a higher
impact scenario that could lead to a threat for both large hail and
damaging winds.

By late evening, a strengthening low level jet will help to increase
dewpoints well into the lower to middle 50s after sunset. As a
strong surface low ejects east across North Dakota after dark, the
dryline/cold front will surge east across the area. This may bring a
renewed round of convection along the surging front, and this round
would have much greater, albeit largely elevated, instability to
work with. The threat for strong to severe storms may linger into
the early overnight hours, before the front clears off to the east
prior to sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A deep surface low (986mb per ECMWF) will quickly track through the
Dakotas and into southern Canada Thursday. A return to gusty
west/northwest winds and low humidity can be expected as a cold
front/dry line cross the area. Areas west of Highway 183 will likely
see near-critical to critical fire weather conditions develop. Some
models are a bit slower with the progression of the front, and keep
humidity higher across central Nebraska and eastern portions of
north central Nebraska.

Friday will see a cool down, but still appears that fire weather
concerns will be at least elevated as gusty northwest winds and low
humidity continue.

A change in the weather still looks to occur this weekend. An upper
level trough will move eastward across the Rockies. A warm front
develops eastward across Kansas from a deepening eastern Colorado
surface low. Appears to be plenty of moisture available, with strong
Gulf moisture advection. Moist upslope flow brings what looks to be
the most promising chance for a decent precipitation event in quite
some time. ENS probabilities for at least one half inch of liquid
precipitation have increased to greater than 50% for the entire
area. In fact, east of Highway 83 they are on the order of 60-70%.
GEFS is similar leading to increasing confidence of a potential
soaking rain. Still could be some wet snow, especially across the
northwest half of the area (Valentine to Ogallala and points
northwest). Ensemble probabilities are moderately high for 1-3" of
wet snow accumulation. Details will continue to be sorted out as we
get closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through today with just a few high
level clouds. South to southeast at 5-15 kts will develop by
the afternoon hours. Low-level wind shear will be a concern
across southwest Nebraska later tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Wednesday, gusty south winds, up to 45 mph, will combine with
very warn temperatures (approaching 90 degrees). Although Gulf
moisture/humidity will be returning northward into the area,
initially it will be shallow and dew points will likely mix out
during the late morning through mid afternoon before the deeper
moisture arrives by late afternoon and evening. Therefore, a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all but Fire Weather Zone
209 and 219 where humidity may stay a little higher. Also of
concern will be the potential for dry lightning, mainly west of
Highway 83 with any isolated thunderstorm development late in
the afternoon. This threat appears to be brief, with higher
humidity increasing during the evening.

A wind shift occurs Wednesday night as a cold front/dry line
quickly moves eastward across the area. Winds shift to the west-
northwest as this passes. This sets the stage for more low
humidity and gusty west-northwest winds Thursday. Likely will see
critical conditions over most if not all of the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NEZ204-206-208-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Brown/Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion