863
FXUS63 KLBF 172350
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
550 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extremely critical fire weather conditions persist into this
  evening, with concerns lingering into the overnight hours due
  to poor humidity recovery and gusty west winds.

- Elevated to near critical fire concerns are possible again on
  Wednesday, primarily east of Highway 83.

- A storm system impacts the area Thursday, bringing a threat
  for accumulating snowfall across portions of northern
  Nebraska. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Thursday
  across portions of northwest into north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently, extremely critical fire conditions persist across much of
western and southwest Nebraska. Temperatures range from the lower
60s to middle 70s, with very dry air promoting widespread humidities
in the teens. Strong west winds persist as well, with widespread
gusts of 45 to 55 miles per hour observed.

For this evening and tonight, expected critical to extremely
critical fire weather conditions to persist across all of western
and north central Nebraska. Though increasing cloud cover has led to
falling temperatures across much of western Nebraska, very dry air
will keep critical humidity values in place into this evening.
Continued strong winds will promote rapid and erratic fire spread in
any new fire starts. The Red Flag Warnings were extended in time to
10 PM CST, with the thought that overnight humidity recovery will be
exceptionally poor. With gusty winds expected to persist as well,
very little relief is expected overnight with respect to fire
weather conditions.

Elevated to near critical fire conditions are expected again
tomorrow afternoon, as temperatures climb into the middle 50s to low
60s across the area. With the very dry airmass remaining in place,
afternoon humidity values will again into the middle to upper teens.
However, unlike today, the departing surface low will lead to winds
quickly weakening by early tomorrow afternoon and this should keep
fire concerns largely below critical thresholds. Will have to watch
late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon closely however, as
there appears to be a brief window for 25-30mph gusts to overlap the
quickly falling humidity values.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Attention then turns to an impactful storm system, progged to impact
the area during the day Thursday. Aloft, an upper low will quickly
cross the Rockies Wednesday night, ejecting into the Plains early
Thursday morning. As this upper low ejects onto the Plains Thursday,
guidance suggests it will take on a negative tilt with time. An
associated surface low will move east out of northeastern Colorado,
and along the Kansas/Nebraska state line through early Thursday
afternoon. As this low begins to push east, a cold front will push
south across the area, leading to strong cold advection in its wake.
As broad upslope easterly flow establishes late Wednesday night,
precipitation overspreads portions of western Nebraska. A brief
period of light rain is possible at onset, though the strong cold
advection with frontal passage should lead to a quick and clean
transition from rain to snow early Thursday morning. Guidance
continues to suggest a narrow band of enhanced snowfall rates
somewhere across northern Nebraska on Thursday afternoon, though
confidence in placement remains low for now. This is driven by
increasing mid-level FGEN, as the thermal gradient constricts aloft
in the wake of the passing H7 low. Though moisture is not overly
robust with this system, it appears to be more than adequate with
the degree of forcing for ascent expected to overspread portions of
the area. Add in north winds gusting to as high as 30 to 35 miles
per hour as snow is falling, and this could lead to the first
impactful winter storm for portions of northern Nebraska on
Thursday. The current forecast of 4-8" is rather broad across
portions of northwest and north central Nebraska, as expected at
this range with limited confidence in placement of banding. Still,
confidence is increasing enough with respect to where the heaviest
snow axis should occur, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued to
address this threat. Locally heavier snow will be possible, with
enhanced snowfall rates expected (1"/hr) in any banding. Blowing and
drifting snow will also be a concern, and trends will need to be
monitored closely.

Light snow is again possible on Saturday as another surface low
passes off to the south the area, though confidence in this remains
low and any impacts look to remain limited at best. Temperatures are
then expected to slowly moderate back to above average by early next
week, as upper ridging amplifies yet again across the western
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strong winds will continue throughout the overnight period with
westerly gusts up to 32 knots expected. Some low level wind shear is
even possible across the region as the low level jet intensifies
overnight. Winds remain strong into Wednesday morning, but will
slowly diminish by early afternoon. Winds will also switch to the
south southeast after 18Z. Besides strong winds, overall weather
conditions will be dry with only some high level clouds present.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
afternoon for NEZ004-005-023>025-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion