439
FXUS63 KLBF 180603
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1203 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will impact the forecast area late tonight into Sunday.
  Wind gusts may reach 50+ MPH for a period Sunday afternoon.

- Light snow is possible, mainly over northern and northeastern portions
  of the forecast area Sunday. This combined with wind and
  existing snow on the ground, may produce patchy areas of
  blowing snow Sunday.

- Temperatures will be highly variable next week with mainly dry conditions
  expected through Thursday Night. Snow is possible Friday into
  the weekend mainly over northern into northeastern Nebraska.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern continued across the CONUS
and Canada this morning. A high amplitude ridge extended north
northwest from southern California toward southern Alaska. East of
this feature, a broad longwave trough of low pressure was anchored
over the eastern 3/4ths of the CONUS. With in this longwave trough,
closed low pressure was present over central Iowa with another
shortwave trough noted over eastern Ontario. Northwest of the
longwave trough, decent shortwaves were noted over the Yukon and NW
Territories of Canada. These two features will end up being the
driver of a cold front tonight into Sunday...more about that in the
short term section below. At the surface this afternoon, high
pressure was present from western South Dakota into northwestern
Nebraska. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon across
the area. As of 2 PM CT, northwesterly winds were gusting as high as
38 MPH at Imperial. Temperatures ranged from 4 above zero at O`Neill
to 19 degrees at Ogallala and Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Active weather conditions are expected over the next 36 hours
across western and north central Nebraska. Surface high pressure
will drop south into Kansas, then Oklahoma this evening. Winds
will shift to the west, then diminish by late evening.
Overnight, surface low pressure will deepen over North Dakota in
advance of a strong shortwave, which was present over the Yukon
at 12z this morning. This low will track into northern
Minnesota overnight forcing a cold front into the forecast area
toward daybreak. The front will arrive in two pieces Sunday-the
first around sunrise, then a second stronger front Sunday
afternoon. With the second front, the threat for snow will
increase across northern and northeastern portions of the
forecast area as weak lift in the dendritic layer becomes
focused across the northeastern forecast area. QPF`s are very
meager with this system and believe any accumulations will be an
inch at best. That being said, am concerned about falling snow
tomorrow combining with existing snow and strong northwesterly
winds producing travel headaches over my northeast Sunday. ATTM,
forecast confidence in measuring an inch of snow is highest
across my far northeast tomorrow, and after conversing with our
neighbors to the northeast, decided to hoist a winter weather
advisory for Sunday in Holt and Boyd counties. Realize snow
amounts are well below criteria worthy, but am more concerned
about blowing snow potential given the strong winds Sunday.

With respect to winds Sunday. The latest high res models including
the HRRR and High Res NAM solns indicate 10m gust potential in the
45 to 55 MPH range Sunday. Winds increase throughout the morning,
peaking around midday. Was considering wind headlines initially, but
bufkit forecast soundings, probabilistic forecasts from the NBM and
statistical guidance falls short of high wind warning criteria
gusts. That being said, am expecting periodic wind gusts in the 45
to 55 MPH range Sunday. No doubt, there will be some patchy blowing
snow issues where snow fell on Friday, however am more concerned
about the combined effects of falling snow and blowing snow
impacting travel. ATTM, this is primarily over my far northeast.

Bitter cold air will settle into the forecast area Sunday night
leading to lows in the single digits. Was concerned initially about
cold weather headlines in the north for Sunday night. However, winds
diminish considerably overnight as high pressure builds into
northern Nebraska. Light winds should keep wind chills above the -20
degree criteria for cold advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Arctic high pressure will settle south of the forecast area on
Monday shifting wind direction to the west. Even with the west
winds, we will be recycling arctic air on the back side of the
arctic high. The latest NAM12 this morning has H85 temps at 21z
Monday ranging from -5C in the southwest, to -17C in the far
northeast. The current forecast based on the NBM has highs
ranging from 20 in the northeast to the upper 30s in SW
Nebraska. Based on the NAM 850 temp forecast, highs Monday are
"optimistic" right now and believe they are on the high side of
the ensemble envelope. On Tuesday, a shortwave over western
Canada, will dive southeast into the northern High Plains and
northern Rockies. Downstream of this feature, surface low
pressure will deepen over eastern Montana forcing a warm front
into the western half of the forecast area Tuesday morning.
Readings will reach the 40s to lower 50s across the area Tuesday
afternoon which appears to be the warmest readings expected
over the next several days. This warm front will be followed by
a cold front Tuesday night resulting in 30s for highs Wednesday.
A brief warmup is expected Thursday ahead of another, strong
arctic front Thursday night. However, forecast confidence in
temperatures decreases significantly after midweek as a decent
spread in forecast highs is noted in the NBM. The spread between
the 25th and 75th %ile for North Platte`s highs Thursday is
around 15 degrees in the NBM. This increases to 22 degrees next
Saturday and nearly 30 degrees by next Sunday. The deterministic
solns including the ECMWF and GFS solns today, drop a
significant arctic front Thursday night into Friday with some of
the coldest air this winter season noted next Saturday into
Sunday. This is reflected in the latest MEX guidance which has
highs next Saturday of 6 and 3 degrees for North Platte and
Valentine respectively. Behind the arctic front There is also an
increased threat for snow Friday into next weekend. This did
show up in the latest NBM forecast as pops have trended up with
this forecast package. POPS for northern Nebraska are in the 30
to 40 percent range Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Mid-level stratus will fill in again across western Nebraska
later this morning. Conditions should remain VFR for southwest
Nebraska but increasing moisture and light precipitation
potential will return to north central Nebraska. This will come
in the form of light snow showers and when combined with strong
wind gusts, high aviation impacts are likely. Trends have been
to carry greater impacts further north and east thus have
removed IFR conditions at VTN. Will need to closely monitor this
potential, especially as confidence in magnitude of visibility
impacts is low at this time. Conditions should slowly improve by
late in the period though low stratus should linger into the
following period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for
NEZ007-010.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion