FXUS63 KLBF 310500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1200 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening will exit ncntl
Nebraska by 12z. The SREF and HREF suggest the potential for areas
of fog developing 09z-12z Tuesday morning and the RAP model shows
dry air moving in aloft which would support the necessary
radiation condition for development. The fog forecast uses the
SREF for areas of fog across the Sandhills and parts of southwest
Nebraska. The fog is expected to lift by 15z. Clearing skies are
expected Tuesday morning across wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

The temperature forecast tonight through Tuesday night uses the
guidance blend plus bias correction. Highs Tuesday were marked down
a degree or two to accommodate the disruption in daytime heating
caused by morning fog and cloudiness. No adjustment was made to lows
tonight or Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Arctic high pressure across nrn Canada will build to near 1065 mb
and begin spilling into Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. The models
have slowed the progress of this cold front allowing for a second
warm day Wednesday across srn Nebraska. The models are in fairly
good agreement producing near or post frontal showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday evening. By Thursday evening, temperatures
will be cold enough for snow and by Friday morning, wind chills
readings in the teens and single digits are in place.

Other than northwest Nebraska, none of the models are suggesting
significant winter weather and this is consistent with WPC and the
previous forecast. The models are showing a deep upper low forming
across western Canada and this is the basis for mid level
frontogenesis and rain Wednesday night followed by snow Thursday

Today`s model runs show the upper low retreating north this weekend
and a trof forming off the West coast. A short wave ridge will form
ahead of the trof and this should send a surge of mild air into
Nebraska Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

In the wake of exiting showers across central and eastern
Nebraska, low clouds and fog will be possible, especially over
southwestern Nebraska. For the KLBF terminal, fog with visibility
as low as 1 mile will be possible from 10z to 14z Tuesday.
Ceilings may fall below 1000 FT AGL in SW Nebraska. Skies will
quickly clear by mid to late morning with VFR conditions expected
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect broken ceilings of 2500 to 5000 FT AGL overnight with
clearing skies expected Tuesday morning. Some patchy fog may
impact the terminal around 12z but confidence is low in this
development occurring. That being said, will leave out a mention
of fog in the KVTN TAF forecast.


Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Elevated fire weather concerns the Frenchman basin. Humidity across
the Frenchman basin falls to around 15 percent Tuesday afternoon.
Wetting rain today and high humidity Tuesday morning could
disrupt the curring process Tuesday. Plus, there is evidence of
green-up along the roadways which could prevent fires from
spreading across state and county roads. Wind speeds in this area
predicted at 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon.


Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

The river level on the Elkhorn river near Atkinson crested
below flood stage last night and is falling. Rainfall this afternoon
and this evening could cause a minor rise Tuesday. This rise is not
expected to produce minor flooding.





NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion