785
FXUS63 KLBF 201127
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
527 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the southern Panhandle and southwestern Nebraska this
afternoon, due to low humidity and gusty winds.
- Another windy day Wednesday, with gusts of 45 mph or greater
along and north of Highway 2. Though minimum humidity values
remain above critical thresholds, elevated fire weather
concerns persist with these wind gusts.
- An arctic front pushes through the region late week, bringing
a return of cold temperatures and chances of snow. Dangerously
cold wind chills both Friday and Saturday morning may range
from 10 to 25 below zero across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
A stationary front is observed across western Nebraska early this
morning. By mid morning, this front is expected to track east,
becoming more of a warm front as warm air advection tracks across
western and southwestern Nebraska. Afternoon highs are expected to
climb into the 50s across southwest Nebraska, with highs in the 40s
across the Sandhills, and the 30s across north central Nebraska.
With these warmer temperatures, expecting that afternoon relative
humidity values drop around 20 percent across southern portions of
the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. As a low pressure system
deepens and tracks across the region, westerly winds begin to
increase across western Nebraska, with peak gusts this afternoon
around 25 to 35 mph. This combination of warmer temperatures, low
humidity, and gusty winds will bring elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions, at least for a few hours, across the southern
Panhandle and southwest Nebraska this afternoon.
As this low pressure system tracks across the region, a cold front
develops and is expected to track across the region late this
afternoon and evening, which will bring overnight lows into the
teens across the region and wind chills in the single digits.
However, before that, to the north and northeast of the low, snow
showers are expected to develop and track across southeast South
Dakota and far northeast Nebraska. As these showers track across
southern South Dakota, a few snow showers may clip across portions
of north central Nebraska, however, little to no accumulations are
expected. With this chance for precipitation, have added a mention
for slight chance (less than 20 percent) PoPs across north central
Nebraska, and added a mention of flurries as well.
A strong surface pressure gradient brings potential for strong,
gusty northwest winds on Wednesday afternoon, especially areas along
and north of Highway 2. Sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph are
expected, with gusts potentially up to 45 to 50 mph. Temperatures
across northern Nebraska remain near seasonal on Wednesday, with
highs in the upper 30s. Afternoon relative humidity values range
from the mid 20s across the Sandhills to the upper 30s near the
Nebraska-South Dakota border. These humidity values remain above
critical fire weather thresholds, but the strength of the winds will
be cause for elevated fire weather concerns, as any fire starts may
quickly spread. By Wednesday night, another shot of cold air is
expected across the region, bringing overnight lows again into the
teens, with wind chills in the single digits.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Thursday night, an arctic front is expected to track across the
region, bringing very cold air in its wake. In fact, overnight lows
Thursday night into Friday morning are currently forecast around
zero to below zero for most of the region, though these may yet be
on the "warmer" end of guidance. For now, with these bitter
overnight lows, dangerously cold wind chills are possible Friday
morning, with current forecast wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero
across most of the region. The coldest wind chills are expected
across north central Nebraska, which shows greater potential of
dropping even colder than 25 below. The cold temperatures remain
Friday night into Saturday morning, where overnight lows again
remain at or below zero, with Saturday morning wind chills also
approaching 10 to 25 below zero. Will continue to monitor the
forecast trends, as these could keep getting colder.
This front also brings a chances of snow showers across the region
early Friday morning through Saturday evening. Disagreement is noted
in forecast ensemble guidance in snowfall amounts. Looking
specifically at one inch of accumulations or greater, both the
European and Canadian ensembles show increasing chances of this
scenario, with percentages ranging from 30 to 70 percent across the
region. However, the GEFS solution remains pessimistic, showing only
a 10 percent chance of this happening across the region. Again, will
continue to monitor the trends over the next few forecast cycles, to
see if better agreement is reached.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. A low pressure system tracks
through the region today, causing a subtle shift in the winds from
westerly to northwesterly. As a cold front passes through the region
this afternoon into the evening, winds become gusty out of the
northwest at local terminals. Along with the frontal passage, lower
ceilings are expected, however at this time low end VFR is expected,
though some forecast soundings suggest brief MVFR conditions are
possible. WIll also be keeping an eye on the potential development
of strong winds aloft behind the cold front, which may bring LLWS
concerns to local terminals tonight. However, confidence in location
and timing is low at this time, so will omit from TAFs for now.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion