FXUS63 KLBF 251719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023


Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Key Messages:

-Seasonable mild temperatures today and Tuesday

-A warming trend into the upcoming weekend.

-A more active weather pattern Saturday night and Sunday with rain
 and thunder chances returning.

Synopsis...A weak closed low was located over MN and was wedged
between an upper ridge from Hudson Bay into the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile a deep upper low was located off the coast of BRitish
Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. At the surface weak surface
low pressure was located over swrn MN into the eastern Dakotas.
Surface high pressure was located over the Rockies of WY and CO.
Skies across western NE were mainly clear. Temperatures at 3am
CDT ranged from the mid 40s to around 50. The coolest reading in
the state was 41 degrees at Alliance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Today into Tonight...The weak upper low will slowly move into
eastern IA and WI as weak upper ridging persists across the
Northern and Central High Plains. A slightly cooler airmass will
reside across the Dakotas and northeastern portions of Nebraska.
Highs today will range from 72 to 74 across the northeast, which
will be near normal. Further west and southwest, highs will reach
the upper 70s with 80 to 85 in the southwest. These highs will be
from 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Winds will increase to 10 to 15
mph across the northeast by this afternoon, with a light southwest
to west wind elsewhere. Tonight, surface high pressure will build
back into the region. Some scattered high clouds will work into
the forecast area, with more mid and high cloudiness building in
across the northeast after midnight. Lows will not be as cool as
the past few nights to range from the mid 40s northwest to upper
40s southwest and east. Winds will be light eat across the west
and southwest and light and variable across the northeast.

Tuesday, the weak upper low will remain over eastern IA and WI
and bring slightly cooler highs to the area. With winds from and
easterly direction, highs will range from the upper 60s to lower
70s across most of the Sandhills, while the eastern panhandle and
southwest reach the upper 70s to around 80. Skies will remain
partly to mostly cloudy at times across the northeast, while the
remainder of the area sunny to mostly sunny.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Wednesday and Thursday...The Upper trough will build into western
Canada and western U.S. This will bring and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft to the Rockies and adjacent Northern and
Central Plains. This will bring warmer temperatures to the region.
Highs by Thursday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s north
central and central Sandhills to the mid and upper 80s southwest.

Friday and Saturday...Southwesterly FLow Friday will become
south-southwesterly Saturday. the GFS H85 temperature anomalies
will range from 9 to 14C above normal. South winds from 1 to 25
mph Friday will increase to 20 to 30 mph Saturday. Forecast highs
from the low 80s north to the mid 80s to near 90 south are
forecast. However, these highs could trend up a few degrees given
the much above normal H85 temperatures expected. EFI shows shift
of tails values 0.5 to 0.8 across the southeastern half of

Saturday night and Sunday...A closed low will deepen into Nevada.
A more active weather pattern will return. A southerly flow at the
surface will continue with an increase in low level moisture.
With a lack of a frontal boundary as a focus, instability will and
any weak disturbances in the flow aloft be the main trigger for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Currently POPS are from
20 to 30 percent Saturday night with a slight chance into Sunday.
Given the synoptic pattern this weekend, some strong storms are
not out of the question across the region. However, the actual
evolution of the closed low and upper trough remain uncertain and
yields a low confidence forecast at this time. So continue to
monitor later forecasts and forecast discussions.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

VFR will likely continue through the forecast period for western
and north central Nebraska terminals. One concern will be the
potential for fog developing around sunrise from KVTN to KONL.
Confidence is low at the moment, so left mention out of the TAF.
Surface winds will remain generally light, transitioning from
south/west to north/east throughout the period.




LONG TERM...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion