216
FXUS63 KLBF 140524
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1224 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate to high confidence in near-critical to critical fire
conditions on Saturday.
- Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snowfall across
northern Nebraska Saturday night and into Sunday.
-Moderate to high confidence in dry conditions and above normal
temperatures next week with temperatures rising into the 80s by mid-
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Dry and warm conditions continue through Saturday as high pressure
builds into the region. This will create a favorable environment for
fire weather concerns on Saturday. Strong winds will begin to
develop by late Saturday morning as the next system begins to deepen
across eastern Wyoming. Above normal temperatures in the mid 70s
combined with afternoon RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range will
create near-critical to critical fire conditions across much of
southwest Nebraska and into portions of the Sandhills and central
Nebraska. While west southwest winds will be strongest across the
eastern Panhandle (gusts up to 40 to 45 mph), winds elsewhere will
still be as high as to 30 mph. With fuels dry, any fire starts, even
with the slightly lower winds, could cause some uncontrollable and
unpredictable fires. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a Red
Flag Warning for the majority of region for Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
The main concern in the long term will be the arrival of a winter
system on Saturday night. This system will bring the potential for
snow across northern Nebraska as well as strong winds to much of
north central and western Nebraska. As this system develops and
deepens across Nebraska on Saturday, very strong winds will develop.
As it tracks eastward Saturday night, precipitation on the northern
and western sides of the low will bring some much needed
precipitation to portions of northern Nebraska. A very sharp
gradient will exist on the southern end of the system, however,
where this gradient/cut-off sets up is still uncertain. Current QPF
amounts of up to a half inch are expected across Boyd and northern
Holt counties which, with snow ratios near 20:1, will result in up
to 3 inches of snowfall. In addition to snowfall, this system will
bring some very gusty winds to the region on Saturday night and into
Sunday. Some locations could see north/northwest gusts up to 50 to
55 mph. At this time, a high wind watch is in effect for much of the
region (all counties except Holt and Boyd) where gusts up to 60 mph
may be possible. Further to the north, these strong wind gusts will
create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well as increased
visibility restrictions in falling snow. Have gone ahead and issued
a winter storm watch for Holt and Boyd counties to account for the
combined wind and snow affects.
High pressure will build back into the region early next week
bringing with it a return to dry and warmer conditions. Temperatures
will gradually warm back up through mid-week, with highs returning
back into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Latest EFI remains high
(0.8 to 0.9) with marginal SoT (between 0 and 1) increasing
confidence that more extreme, potentially record-breaking, maximum
temperatures may occur on Thursday. Therefore, would not be
surprised to see temperatures increase in the next day or two.
Speaking of records, record highs currently sit at 90, 85, 86, and
87 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial
respectively. If temperatures do increase into the upper 80s to low
90s by late week, most if not all of these sites will have the
opportunity to break new records.
There is a low end chance of some isolated precipitation on Monday
night and into Tuesday as a shortwave pushes across the northern
Plains. At this time, confidence is low in development and any
precipitation that does develop is expected to be light with little
in the way of QPF. Therefore, confident in continuing to advertise a
generally dry forecast through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026
Winds and smoke will be the main aviation concerns for the
upcoming forecast period.
Fire activity across southeast Lincoln County (LBF) has resulted
in surface smoke being advected in thanks to persistent
southeast winds. Relied heavily on simulated near-surface smoke
from high resolution guidance, which suggests a fairly
noteworthy resurgence of thick smoke later this morning as winds
veer to more southerly. Have introduced 2SM and FU, closely
matching Friday evening observations at their worst, given high
concentrations hinted at by the HRRR. Towards late morning,
winds should continue to veer to the southwest which will carry
smoke away from the terminal. Winds should increase considerably
as they continue to veer to more southwesterly where speeds of
30 to 35 knots appear probable. As a cold front approaches late
tonight, CIGs should drop steadily at VTN with another round of
smoke potentially working into LBF. Gusts should increase
towards the end of the period in northern terminals but should
peak just beyond the end of the valid period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Saturday as
RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 20
percent for much of the region with some locations across extreme
southwest Nebraska dropping below 15 percent. Westerly wind gusts up
to 45 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts
across the rest of the area up to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now
in effect through early evening due to these strong winds, lower RH
values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will
recover to over 70 percent as the next weather system pushes into
the region bringing some light precipitation to northern Nebraska.
QPF values will remain under a half inch for areas mainly north of
Highway 2, with lesser amounts to the south and west.
While humidity values remain generally over 30 percent on Sunday,
strong gusty winds will return to the entire region, even those
areas not expected to get precipitation. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are
expected through the afternoon before winds begin to diminish after
sunset. For those areas that do not get any precipitation on Sunday,
some elevated fire conditions may be possible due to the strong
winds. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most locations to
account for the anticipated strong northerly winds.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NEZ007-010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion