433
FXUS63 KLBF 280703
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
203 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop this
  evening, tracking across western and north central Nebraska.
  Some of the stronger thunderstorms may pose a risk for large
  hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above average this
  weekend and potentially all of next week.

- Precipitation chances are expected nearly each night through
  Tuesday night. Afterwards, stronger upper level ridging is
  expected to lower precipitation chances. At this time, the
  severe weather risk remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

An upper level high remains across the Desert Southwest. An upper
level ridge builds across eastern Montana, with a trough tracking
into the Pacific Northwest. Throughout the day, this should support
a fairly quiet weather pattern. partly cloudy skies are expected,
with highs pushing into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Throughout the
afternoon, southerly winds will support a push of moisture into the
region, bringing dew points into the 60s, with some locations
possibly pushing dewpoints into the lower 70s. These southerly winds
are expected to be a bit gusty, as well, with peak gusts during the
afternoon around 25 to 30 mph across the region.

By the late afternoon into the early evening, expecting to see an
upper level shortwave tracking through the upper level flow,
supporting a warm frontal push across western Nebraska. With the
daytime heating and push of moisture ahead of this front, should see
some decent rebuilding of instability across the region. The upper
level pattern will also support some localized increases in the deep
layer shear, which should support a few stronger thunderstorms late
afternoon and early evening. Some of the stronger storms may bring a
risk of large hail, with a non-zero risk for damaging winds. With
the deeper moisture available in the atmosphere, these storms may
also bring a risk for locally heavy rainfall. However, confidence
remains on the lower side of where storms will set up along the
front. Current CAM guidance suggests these cells will largely be
isolated to scattered in nature, so will need to keep a close eye on
the mesoscale evolution tomorrow afternoon to better assess where a
greater severe risk may set up. For what it`s worth, the SPC has put
most of the region under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms tomorrow evening.

As this round of showers and thunderstorms moves out of the region,
expecting a fairly quiet overnight period. However, the overnight
cool off is expected to remain somewhat limited, with lows dropping
into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridging is expected to
amplify overnight and through the early afternoon, which will
support continued dry conditions through the afternoon. Also expect
this round of ridging to bring unseasonably warm temperatures across
the region, with highs in the mid to upper 90s, with a few locations
potentially breaking into the lower 100s. For reference, typical
highs in late August are around 85 degrees, so looking at highs 10
to 15 degrees above normal. These highs would also exceed the 90th
percentile compared to local climatology.

Saturday evening, another surface disturbance is expected to track
through the region, potentially bringing another round of showers
and thunderstorms. With the preexisting hot temperatures throughout
the day, expecting that storms should mostly remain more elevated in
nature, which may limit a greater severe risk. However, still see
some potential for elevated instability and sufficient deep layer
shear to lead to a few stronger thunderstorms and a potential hail
risk. Another Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) has been issued for
portions of western Nebraska Saturday evening. Will continue to see
how the environment plays out over the next 24-36 hours to see if
the severe risk increases, though.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Upper level ridging continues over the southern Plains, while an
upper level trough tracks across the northern Plains. This will
continue to support an active upper level pattern Sunday through
early week. Throughout the days, the upper level ridging should
continue to support lower rain chances, with highs climbing into the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Again, highs for early September are right
around 84 to 85 degrees, so this looks to remain warmer than
average. With the fairly active upper level pattern, expect near
daily chances of rain each evening into the overnight hours. At this
time, the severe risk remains uncertain.

Mid to late week, stronger upper level ridging is expected to be the
dominant feature. This will support warmer than average temperatures
continuing through the end of the week, with highs potentially
remaining in the 90s across the region. This stronger upper level
ridging is also expected to limit precipitation chances through the
end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the effective TAF
period across western and north central Nebraska. Surface winds are
expected to remain light overnight, however, a strong low level jet
will bring LLWS concerns across most of the region through the early
morning hours. By the morning, as stronger mixing develops in the
boundary layer, winds begin to increase, becoming gusty by the late
morning. Southerly winds gusting around 25 knots through the
afternoon are expected. An additional round of thunderstorms may
occur during the evening, though confidence in direct impacts to
area terminals remains low at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion