851
FXUS63 KLBF 171136
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
536 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extremely critical fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon
  across western and southwestern Nebraska. A particularly
  dangerous situation red flag warning is in effect for areas
  generally west of highway 83. East of highway 83, critical
  fire weather conditions are likely and a red flag warning is
  in effect this afternoon for these areas.

- Expect near record highs today for a large portion of western and
  north central Nebraska.

- A strong cold front Wednesday night will bring a threat for
  snow to the area for late Wednesday night into Thursday
  evening. At this time the greatest potential for accumulating
  snow is along and north of Interstate 80. The threat for
  accumulating snow continues to increase, however, snow
  accumulations are uncertain at this time.

- Near or below normal temperatures are expected Friday into the
  weekend. There will be a chance for light snow Saturday night
  across southern Nebraska. Moderating temperatures are
  expected the first of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

H5 analysis tonight had low amplitude ridging extending
from Oklahoma, north-northwest into Saskatchewan and Alberta. East
of this ridge, west-northwest flow extended all the way to the east
coast of the CONUS. West of the ridge, a highly amplified pattern
was noted along the west coast of Canada and the United States.
Closed low pressure was located just off the coast of central
British Columbia. A trough of low pressure extended to the south
southeast of this feature into central California. A tandem of
shortwaves were noted at the base of this trough. The first was
located over the central valley of California and the second was
located roughly 300 miles off the coast of southern California.
Overnight, a broad plume of mid and upper level moisture continued
to stream northeast form Baja California into the central and
southern plains. This had led to a broad area of mid and high
cloudiness across the forecast area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strong winds, near
record high temperatures and widespread critical fire weather
conditions will highlight the forecast today into the afternoon
hours. For fire weather forecast details, see the fire weather
section below. For today, the upper level disturbance over the
central valley of California, will quickly track northeast into the
intermountain west through sunrise this morning, leading to surface
cyclogenesis over southeastern Montana. A surface trough of low
pressure will extend south of this feature into the Nebraska
Panhandle this morning. This feature will race east today as a
second surface low develops over southern South Dakota. Strong west
winds will develop behind the exiting surface trough, which will be
located across the far northeastern forecast area at 21z this
afternoon. Winds will be strongest across the western third of the
forecast area where elevation will aid in mixing strong H700 to H800
winds to the surface. Based on the NBM ensemble probability winds
tonight and EC EFI and SOT forecast, the strongest winds appear to
lie just off to the southwest of the forecast area and across the
north western panhandle. There is a tongue of stronger winds which
develops in Garden county and the portions of the far western
Sandhills today. Wind speeds utilizing the 75th percentile of the
NBM keep winds just under high wind warning criteria. Also looking
at the probabilistic NBM, there is less than a 20 percent chance of
60+ MPH wind gusts in Garden county today. No doubt we will be close
to high wind warning criteria in Deuel and Garden counties, however,
am not seeing enough model support to pull the trigger on one with
this forecast package. In addition to gusty winds, very warm air
will accompany the surface trough with the warmest temps along a
line from Imperial, to North Platte, to O`Neill. Based on
statistical guidance, which is supported by the 50% ile of the NBM,
highs should reach the lower 70s south of this line. West of this
line, slightly cooler readings are expected due to a combination of
increasing afternoon cloud cover, and slightly cooler west of the
surface trough. Record highs for Imperial, North Platte and Broken
Bow are 78, 74 and 75 respectively. The current forecast highs are
71, 72 and 75 today so Broken Bow will stand the best chance of
tying or breaking their record high. The surface low will lift into
Minnesota later tonight, forcing a Pacific cold front through the
forecast area. Ample mixing behind the Pacific front, will lead to
mild temps tonight with lows ranging from the mid 20s to middle 30s.

On Wednesday and arctic cold front will stall along the South Dakota
and Nebraska border. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the
north to lower 60s in SW Nebraska. During the day on Wednesday, a
second strong short wave will break off the west coast trough,
crossing into the central Rockies by 00z Thursday. Surface low
pressure will deepen over northeastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will shift around to the east as the surface low deepens
further Wednesday evening and arctic high pressure drops southeast
across Alberta into Saskatchewan. By evening with the surface low
over northeastern Kansas, the arctic front will push through the
forecast area by late evening. Behind the arctic front overnight
Wednesday night into Thursday, strong isentropic lift will develop
over northwestern Nebraska, transitioning east across the northern
half of Nebraska Thursday. Looking at the deterministic EC and even
the latest NAM soln from tonight, both models develop a swath of
decent accumulating snows in the northern Sandhills and north
central Nebraska. The latest NBM forecast has settled in on a 3 to 5
inch band from Sheridan county east to Holt county Through Thursday
evening. This current forecast has as much as 1 to 2 inches south to
the I-80 corridor. Believe this southern periphery will tighten up
significantly with subsequent forecasts. Feel the 3 to 5 inch
forecast is a good place to start as the GFS deterministic soln is
lower with snow accumulations and the deterministic ECMWF higher.
One word of caution here, the latest EC SOT and EFI forecast has a
SOT of 0 to 1+ across northern Nebraska for snowfall Thursday and
the EC might be onto something here. If the forecast remains on
track winter headlines may be necessary Thursday as in addition to
the accumulating snow threat, winds will be on the gusty side behind
the exiting low and in advance of the approaching arctic high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The deep upper trough responsible for Thursday`s potential snow and
arctic air intrusion will be shifting east of the area by Friday.
Surface high pressure will settle into western and north central
Nebraska Friday. Morning lows Friday will be in the single digits
across much of the area. Potential exists for even a few degrees
below zero, especially across northwest Nebraska and any potential
snow covered areas. Wind chills will be very cold (around 10 below)
Friday morning across northern Nebraska. Does not appear that any
headlines will be needed for the cold, but it will be a drastic
change to what has been experienced the last several days of warm,
dry weather. Some sun is expected Friday, but highs will be below
average with the center of the arctic high across the heart of the
area by afternoon. Highs will struggle into the upper 20s across
portions of north central Nebraska...with 30s expected at most other
locations.

By Saturday, the surface high shifts southeast with low-level flow
becoming westerly. Weak warm air advection and modest downslope flow
will support somewhat of a moderation in temperatures. Still appears
that north central Nebraska will remain just below freezing, but far
southwest Nebraska should see highs reaching the mid 40s.

Saturday night, deterministic models indicate a quick moving
shortwave will cross the area. Ensemble probabilities keep most of
the precipitation south of the area across Kansas. There is at least
some chance for some light snow...mostly across southwest Nebraska on
the northern fringe of the precipitation area. Any accumulation
looks minimal at this time.

Sunday into Monday, another arctic high will settle southward into
the area Sunday in the wake of the departing shortwave. Highs Sunday
may need to be trended down, with the latest guidance from both
ensemble suites (ENS/GEFS) favoring colder temperatures Sunday.
Ridging aloft begins to build eastward Sunday night into Monday.
Return southerly flow and warm air advection at the surface should
begin a moderation in temperatures the first of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through today and into tonight. Low-level wind
shear will be a concern through mid-morning. Thereafter, strong
gusty west winds develop with sustained speeds of 20-30 kts and
gust over 45 kts across parts of western Nebraska. Winds
subside slightly this evening at 15-25 kts from the west. Winds
will decrease further after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across
all of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon through mid
evening. Extremely critical fire weather conditions are likely in
the western Sandhills, eastern Panhandle and far SW Nebraska. With
high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to middle 70s today,
and strong westerly downslope winds, RH will fall off to 10 to 20
percent this afternoon. Minimum RH will range from 10 to 20 percent
across the area with driest conditions in zones 204 210 and 219.
Frequent wind gusts by afternoon will reach the 45 to as much as 55
MPH in the before mentioned zones. Further east for zones 206, 208
and 209 wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH will be common with the strongest
gusts in western portions of zone 206. Decided to add PDS wording to
zone 219 based on wind gust potential in the 45 to 55 MPH range
along with min RH around 10 to 12 percent. Winds will diminish mid
to late evening and RH recovery tonight will be poor ranging from 45
to 55 percent.

On Wednesday, dry air will remain in place across the area behind an
exiting Pacific cold front. Minimum RH will range from 15 to 25
percent with the driest conditions from southwestern into portions
of central Nebraska. Winds will be lighter Wednesday afternoon,
keeping fire weather concerns elevated to near critical. Winds
Wednesday afternoon will range from 10 to 20 MPH with possible gusts
up to 25 MPH over far northern Nebraska. ATTM the strongest winds
are not co-located with the lowest minimum RH, Wednesday afternoon,
precluding critical fire weather conditions.

The threat for snow will increase Thursday across the northern half
of the forecast area. This along with much colder temperatures
through Sunday will limit fire weather concerns through the weekend.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 8 PM CST
/7 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion