269
FXUS63 KLBF 251130
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
530 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A combination of mild temperatures, dry conditions, and strong west-
  northwest winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions
  across portions of southwest Nebraska today.

- Showers are possible along a cold front moving through the
  area this afternoon, though little to no accumulations are
  expected. Gusty winds will be possible with these showers.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
  Thursday and Friday across the area.

- A strong cold front will bring much colder air to the region
  Saturday with a threat for light snow Sunday into Sunday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical
fire weather conditions today. Further details will be contained in
the fire weather discussion below.

For tonight, expect temperatures to fall into the middle 20s to 30s
under mostly cloudy skies. Winds remain light and variable, with
weak surface high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska. As this
surface high slowly migrates east into Iowa, southerly flow will
return to western Nebraska by sunrise.

For today, expect a shortwave trough (currently located near the
International Border) to push south across the northern Plains, and
across the area by this afternoon. At the surface, an associated
surface low will eject east out of southeastern Wyoming and into
southwestern Nebraska by early afternoon. This will drag a surface
trough to near Highway 83, with strengthening westerly flow across
western Nebraska in its wake. Despite persistent middle and upper
level cloudiness due to anomalous moisture aloft, enough mixing
is expected in the downslope regime to tap into a belt of
stronger westerlies aloft. Momentum transfer of the stronger
flow aloft will promote strengthening winds across western
Nebraska by early afternoon, and west-northwest wind gusts as
high as 40 to 50 miles per hour are expected. HREF probabilities
of gusts >40 miles per hour maximize as high as 70-80% for
areas along and south of I-80 and west of HWY 83, and this is
where confidence is highest in an overlap of strong winds and
lowered RH. Though humidity values will only drop into the
20-25% range, very dry fuels and the expected strong winds are
enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning for portions of southwest
Nebraska tomorrow.

In addition to the fire weather threat, a cold front will push
quickly south across the area through the afternoon. Ahead of this
boundary, lapse rates remain steep enough in the mid-levels to
squeeze out ~100-200J/kg of MUCAPE. This points to at least some
threat for convective showers, and a few lightning strikes cannot be
ruled out. This will need to be monitored closely, as QPF will
remain very light 

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion