703
FXUS63 KLBF 220423
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1023 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Travelers for the Christmas Holiday should expect great
weather with mild temperatures and no precipitation in the
forecast through next weekend.
- Temperatures quickly climb to well above normal values with
record highs forecast Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
- Our "heat wave" should break by next weekend but temperatures
will likely remain unseasonably warm through next weekend into
early the following week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery shows increasingly cloudy skies
immediately northwest of the local area. Within generally westerly
mid-level flow, this cloud cover will overspread western Nebraska
through this evening. Temperatures have warmed reasonably well today
with multiple upper 40s and middle 50s. These values are roughly 10-
20F above normal for late December. Winds were gusty across our
eastern zones as lee troughing deepens and high pressure anchored to
the east promote a strong pressure gradient. Gusts were generally in
the 25 to 30 mph range with a few locations topping out closer to 35
mph.
For this afternoon and tonight...little in the way of changes to the
sensible weather are expected. Winds will gradually veer to the west
as high pressure shifts east and lee troughing extends further
downslope. The expected cloud cover and breezy overnight winds will
hold temperatures in check for much of the area, particularly north
of I-80. With overnight gusts nearing 20 to 25 mph, lows will likely
remain above the freezing mark in the middle to upper 30s. Further
south where winds will be weaker, location many still manage to hit
the freezing mark. Either way, no precipitation is expected so
wintry impacts remain no concern.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Significant warmth expected for much of the upcoming week. This,
along with the lack of any potential for precipitation, should bode
favorable for Christmas holiday travelers in the region.
Monday...Ridging aloft will camp along the US/Mexico border with a
gradual push east to the Gulf Coast. This dome of high pressure will
promote westerly to southwesterly flow across the Central Plains.
This will push much warmer air into the region while also working to
stymie any potential for precipitation with the upper-level jet
being displaced to the north. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)
continues to highlight significant temperature anomalies much of the
upcoming week with the greatest signal being Monday where values
exceed 0.9 for all of western Nebraska with Shift of Tail (SoT)
values of 1-2. NAEFS guidance, similarly, shows expansive mid-level
temperature anomalies with h85 temperatures reaching their maximum
value in the model climatology by midday Monday. With this in mind,
did boost forecast highs considerably tomorrow with a heavy lean on
the warmer MAV guidance given the favorable setup. This paints
widespread 70s with a few locations holding onto the upper 60s.
Tuesday...a passing high pressure to the north will introduce a
backdoor cool front. This will hold temperatures back for the day
though this will be very short lived. Beneath thicker cloud cover,
high temperatures will only reach the 50s to maybe near 60F.
Wednesday/Christmas Day...temperatures will quickly rebound
following the cooler day as strong southwesterly flow becomes
reestablished, driving in warm mid-level air once again. NAEFS
continues to highlight the positive temperature anomalies with EFI
values remaining in the 0.7-0.9 range and non-zero SoT. Given the
overall pattern of high pressure overhead with westerly downsloping
dry air and plentiful sunshine, the setup is conducive to
temperatures exceeding even the warmest of guidance. NBM inner-
quartile spreads for Wednesday and Thursday remain the smallest,
around 5F. This puts confidence in the expected warmth.
Consideration was given to boosting forecast highs for Wednesday and
Thursday, largely citing the higher confidence, but after
coordination with neighboring offices opted to forego this. Either
way, record highs will be threatened Wednesday and Thursday at both
North Platte and Valentine. Given the magnitude of warmth, some fire
weather concerns will again exist each day with Wednesday seeing the
greatest overlap of low humidity and gusts. At this time, however,
no headlines are anticipated.
Friday into the weekend...a pattern change should arrive by late
week, including a potential ridge breakdown as troughing moves onto
the West Coast. This should lead to a few northern stream
disturbances tracking across the Northern Plains. While
precipitation will likely remain north, attendant cool fronts will
likely approach the area. The first of these could arrive early
Friday and explains the fall in temperatures. Even with the slight
decrease, values remain above climatological levels. Daytime highs
should hold in the upper 40s and 50s through this period. Combining
this with no precipitation chances, post-holiday travel appears
likely to be unencumbered.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Low-level wind shear will be of concern, especially across
northern Nebraska through noontime. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions to prevail, with scattered areas of mid and high
level cloudiness. Wind at the surface will increase from the
west this afternoon. Gusts across northern Nebraska of around 25
kts will be possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025
Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence):
Mon Tue Wed Thu
12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25
North Platte 72/71(2024) 57/74(1964) 66/62(1922) 65/65(1999)
Valentine 70/70(1933) 57/68(1964) 68/59(1936) 63/65(1979)
Monthly Record High Temperature for December
North Platte 76 (12/06/1939)
Valentine 76 (12/11/1939)
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor
CLIMATE...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion