306
FXUS63 KLBF 121728
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above average temperatures continue today before a cold front
tonight brings a return of cooler temperatures for tomorrow and
beyond.
- Moderate to high confidence in increased rainfall potential by the
middle of next week.
- Moderate confidence in below normal temperatures by the end of
the week with a frost/freeze potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Currently, a cold front has pushed into portions of southwest and
central Nebraska, and is roughly located from near Imperial to Mason
City. South of this boundary, breezy southerly winds are leading to
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. To the north, temperatures
range from the upper 40s to 50s amid east-northeasterly winds.
Stratus has overspread portions of northern Nebraska, and patchy fog
has developed within this stratus deck.
For today, deepening surface low pressure will begin to eject along
the Kansas/Nebraska state line through sunrise, with the frontal
boundary lifting slightly northward as it does. This will allow for
portions of southwest into central Nebraska to warm again into the
80s, with highs in the lower to middle 70s further north. This
temperature forecast for northern Nebraska is dependent on the
erosion of the low stratus deck, which guidance suggests should
occur by early this afternoon as northwesterly winds establish
across the Sandhills. By this evening, a reinforcing cold front will
quickly push into the area from northwest to southeast, bringing
stronger cold advection in its wake. This should promote ample
mechanical mixing and increasing surface pressure rises (3-5mb/3hr),
and bring a period of gusty northeasterly winds to the area tonight.
Portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska can expected gusts
as high as 25 to 35 miles per hour within ~3 hours of frontal
passage overnight.
Much cooler temperatures are then expected for Tuesday, with highs
ranging from the upper 50s in northern Nebraska to the upper 60s to
near 70 south of I-80. These temperatures are dependent again on
cloud cover, with another round of stratus development expected
overnight into tomorrow morning. This does lend some uncertainty
into afternoon highs tomorrow, with high-res guidance showing 25-
75th percentile 2m temperature spreads as high as 8-12F across much
of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. Trends will continue to be
monitored, and further adjustments downwards might be needed should
confidence increase in more persistent stratus into tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Active weather returns on Tuesday night and into Wednesday as a
developing low pressure system over Colorado will bring the
potential of significant rainfall to the area. Little has changed to
the previous few forecasts with the better potential for rainfall
occurring on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. By Thursday
afternoon, precipitation will begin to diminish, completely coming
to an end by Thursday evening. At this time, QPF amounts are still
uncertain, but there is still the potential for some embedded
thunderstorms Wednesday evening which may produce some heavier
rainfall. At this time, not expecting any severe thunderstorms or
flooding concerns, but will continue to monitor over the next few
days.
Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the
western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of
Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With
this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass
into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures
in the -3 to 3 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to
rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through next
weekend, rising back into the 70s by next Sunday. For low
temperatures, this CAA will drop overnight temperatures into the
upper 20s to low 30s across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska on
Friday morning. Widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s
are then expected for Saturday morning. Given this colder airmass,
frost and freeze potential is likely by the end of the week. At this
time, headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature
trend remains consistent and confidence increases, they may be
necessary. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to
date information regarding frost/freeze potential.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Stratus remains slow to erode across north central Nebraska this
afternoon. However, satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the
stratus deck, so may see some brief VFR conditions this afternoon
before stratus rebuilds later this evening. Further south, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon, until the second
wave of stratus arrives tonight. A reinforcing push of cold air
arrives later this evening, along with the status deck. This will
also bring gusty northeasterly winds this evening, with pockets of
gusts through the night. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR
across the region. With winds expected to remain sustained through
the night, expecting that this will help limit fog development
overnight. However, the stratus deck is expected to remain in place
through at least the end of the effective TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion