319
FXUS63 KLBF 260530
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet conditions continue this evening and overnight,
  especially for areas east of Highway 83. Patchy fog
  development is possible again across southwest and central
  Nebraska prior to sunrise.

- Expect a slight warm up this weekend, with mostly dry
  conditions. Highs are expected to climb into the mid to upper
  70s and potentially into the lower 80s.

- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Monday
  night into Tuesday, which may bring wetting rainfall across
  most of the region.

- Greater uncertainty builds into the forecast after Tuesday;
  however, the forecast continues to trend toward more seasonal
  temperatures during the day, with chances for precipitation
  waning by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

An upper level trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest, bringing
southwesterly flow aloft across the region. To the east of the
trough, continuing to see height rises building across the central
Plains. This larger flow pattern also introduces a push of dry air
aloft, which is readily observable on both water vapor satellite
imagery and the 18Z KLBF sounding. At the surface, a low pressure
system tracks across north central Kansas, with a slowly developing
warm front. As this low gradually lifts to the northeast this
evening, expecting our eastern zones, mainly areas east of
Highway 83, will be in a favorable environment for continued
rain showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. Expecting that
most of the precipitation expected this evening would be in the
wrap around portion of the low, which should limit surface
forcing. Given that the region has been generally overcast with
mist and drizzle continuing into the afternoon, expect a mostly
stable lower layer of the atmosphere. In addition to that, upper
level flow is fairly week. This combination should limit any
severe weather concerns with potential thunderstorms this
evening. However, a fairly moist environment remains, which may
support some locally heavy rainfall with any stronger updrafts
this evening.

As showers gradually track east overnight, still expecting
ample moisture in a fairly stable environment low level
environment will remain. With surface winds expected to remain
quite light overnight, this may lead to patchy fog development,
especially across portions of southwest and central Nebraska.
However, guidance continues to struggle with potential placement
and intensity of fog, given that drizzle may be persisting
across portions of the region. Regardless, conditions may remain
somewhat wet and potentially foggy for Saturday morning. Those
who plan to be out and about should be prepared for potentially
changing visibility conditions.

As the upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest continues to
lift to the northeast, expect upper level ridging to develop across
most of the central Plains. This will support a push of warmer
temperatures aloft as well as continued flow of drier air aloft,
favoring warmer temperatures this weekend as well as mostly dry
conditions. Forecast highs across the region this weekend are mostly
in the mid to upper 70s, though some locations across southwest and
western Nebraska may break into the lower 80s. This is not too
unusual for this time of year, as our typical highs are right around
75 degrees. Overnight, expecting a return of stratus both nights,
which will limit the overnight cool off. Current forecast lows are
in the mid 50s this weekend, which remains warmer than our typical
lows in the mid 40s.

However, while we may expect warmer and mostly dry conditions
through the day this weekend, will need to keep an eye on Sunday
night for another potential round of precipitation. Throughout the
weekend, another upper level trough is expected to deepen across the
western United States. GEFS spaghetti plots suggest that if the
trough can deepen sufficiently to the south, that it may begin to
leach some moisture off of Hurricane Odalys. Regardless on whether
this trough can interact with Odalys, it should bring a stronger
fetch of Pacific moisture in the upper level flow, which may bring
greater impacts across the region on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As mentioned above in the short term discussion, an upper level
trough continues to deepen across the western United States on
Monday, bringing a strong fetch of Pacific moisture across the
region, with some potential to bring moisture off of Hurricane
Odalys as well. Additionally, as Hurricane Polo is expected to track
across the Baja Peninsula, we may get an additional surge of Pacific
moisture. At the surface, a lee side cyclone develops off the Front
Range, slowly tracking from eastern Colorado into southwest
Nebraska. This should bring another chance for precipitation across
the region, with fairly strong chances of wetting precipitation
across the region. In fact, both the European and GEFS ensembles
bring at least a 30 to 40 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall to
exceed half an inch Monday night into Tuesday afternoon across most
of the region.

Uncertainty begins to build into the forecast by Tuesday, as
guidance struggles to handle the interaction of Hurricane Polo and
the upper level trough. Polo is expected to make its turn to the
northeast on Monday, tracking across the Baja Peninsula by Tuesday.
As the upper level trough tracking across the western United States
pushes east, expecting that it should begin to interact with
Hurricane Polo at some point on Tuesday. As the timing is still
somewhat in question, as well as the intensity of the tropical
system, guidance really struggles to come to a consensus on the
solution. Even a look at the GEFS spaghetti plots reveals a fair
amount of uncertainty within the GEFS ensemble on how the upper
level jet interacts with the hurricane. This also leaves a bit of
uncertainty between the GEFS and European ensembles, as both
ensembles struggle with the upper level interaction. All this to
say, forecast confidence remains on the lower end at this time,
especially concerning potential precipitation placement and timing.
For what it is worth, there is some consensus on rainfall occurring
to our south, across Kansas, as well as some to our east. Whether or
not precipitation makes it further west into portions of the
Sandhills remains low confidence. However, there is some suggestion
that we may see some precipitation out of this system, given the
expected surge of moisture. Will obviously be keeping a close eye on
the evolution of this system and forecast trends through the
weekend, as this will largely impact our weather beyond Tuesday.

Though there is lower confidence mid week onward given the
potentially complex upper level flow, for now, guidance continues to
suggest more seasonal high temperatures to persist mid to late week.
Rain chances remain in the forecast, but again, remain low
confidence given the uncertainty in the jet stream interaction with
the hurricane. For now, expecting temperatures to remain around the
upper 60s to lower 70s, which is right around average for this time
of year. In fact, late September into early October, our average
highs are around 72 degrees, with an average low around 42. However,
while highs are expected to remain around average, lows are expected
to remain above average, with lows mostly remaining in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Expect low stratus and fog to impact both the KLBF and KVTN
terminals overnight thorugh mid morning Saturday. Ceilings will
range from 300 to 700 FT AGL at both terminals with visbys as
low as 1sm at the KLBF terminal and 3sm at the KVTN terminal.
Skies will gradually clear late morning with skc to scattered
25000 cloud cover expected into Saturday evening.

Beyond the forecast period Saturday evening, there will be a
decent threat for fog formation overnight Saturday night into
Sunday morning.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion