778
FXUS63 KLBF 191147
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
547 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snow across much of
the region today through this evening.
- Low to moderate confidence in colder temperatures for the end
of the week resulting in wind chills into the negative single
digits.
- Low confidence in light snow Friday afternoon through Friday night
across southwest Nebraska.
- Below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.
Then a quick moderation and warm up is expected next week.
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the weekend into
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
The main weather concern in the short term will be the winter storm
arriving tonight and lasting into Thursday night. Precipitation will
slowly spread eastward from the Panhandle this morning. Overall,
trends continue to hint at a band of heavier snow across the central
Sandhills and therefore confidence is high in a locally higher band
of snowfall. Where confidence is lower is where exactly this band
will set up. For now, have kept the band generally along and
immediately north of the Highway 2 corridor. This will likely be
something that won`t be fully realized until snow starts to fall and
radar shows where the convective bands are starting to develop.
Regardless, in this heaviest swath of snow, potential accumulations
up to 6 to 8 inches, even locally up to 9 inches or higher, will be
possible. Snow tapers to the south and north with a fairly sharp
gradient from the highest snowfall to the lowest, especially along
the southern border where some drier air may try to push into the
region. Have kept the going headlines generally in place, with just
an upgrade of Garfield and Wheeler counties from a winter weather
advisory to a winter storm warning as totals increased into the 5 to
7 inch range in both counties. It`s important to note that the
southern ends of both Brown and Rocky counties may reach warning
criteria, but for the time being have opted out of placing them in
the warning until the band of snow becomes visible. May need
additional upgrades early Thursday as a result.
Regardless of how much snow will fall, there is the added hazard of
some very strong winds with this system. North (morning) to
northwesterly (afternoon) gusts up to 40 mph are expected with this
system by Thursday morning which will add an additional layer of
concern with a blowing and drifting snow potential. The strongest
winds are expected during the day on Thursday which will correlate
when the heaviest snow will also fall resulting in widespread
visibility restrictions. Winds will not decrease until the system
begins to push out of the region Thursday evening which is also the
same time that snow begins to diminish.
High pressure begins to build southward into the region on Thursday
night bringing a return to drier weather for the end of the week.
This high will also usher in much colder air behind the departing
system. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the single digits
(even into the negative single digits across the Pine Ridge) with
wind chill values approaching 10 below zero. While not close to
headline criteria, this cold air combined with recent snowfall will
make for some bitter conditions Thursday night and into Friday
morning. Highs on Friday will struggle to rise above freezing with
most locations seeing temperatures only in the upper 20s to low 30s.
The next potential precipitation system will arrive on Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning as a shortwave trough moves off the
Rockies into the High Plains. The majority of the precipitation with
this system will remain south across Kansas, but southwest Nebraska
(generally south of I-80) will still get clipped on the northern
edge. QPF amounts appear to be minimal with this disturbance and
therefore, while temperatures remain cold enough for snow,
accumulations will be under an inch. Snow moves out Saturday morning
with surface high pressure building back into the region by the
afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday will slowly moderate back into
the mid 30s to low 40s, but temperatures will be highly dependent on
how much clearing can develop and how quickly the high pressure will
push into the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Sunday into Monday, another arctic high will settle southward into
the area Sunday. Highs both Sunday will be below normal
(ENS/GEFS) favoring the colder temperatures. Ridging aloft
begins to build eastward Sunday night into Monday. Return
southerly flow and warm air advection at the surface should
begin a moderation in temperatures across western Nebraska on
Monday.
Ridging really takes hold by Tuesday with a return to well
above normal temperatures. The ridge will flatten some by
Wednesday with broad west-northwest flow aloft across the
Plains. A weak shortwave and associated Pacific cold will cool
temperatures back just a bit Wednesday, but will still average
above normal. Fire weather concerns will likely return next
week, especially for areas that didn`t receive much in the way
of any snowfall.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Ceilings will gradually lower this morning with areas of MVFR
and localized IFR along and north of I-80 into the Sandhills
through the day. Snow develops this morning, peaking around
midday, then decreasing through the afternoon. Snow ends this
evening with ceilings lifting. Most of the snow will be confined
to areas along and north of I-80, heaviest in the Sandhills.
Winds will be north 15-25 kts, decreasing tonight. VFR is
expected most areas by mid-evening and beyond.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NEZ004-005-023>029-036>038-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NEZ006>010-022-035-057-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion