708
FXUS63 KLBF 222328
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical and possibly critical fire weather conditions
remain possible Monday through Thursday across the area. At
this time, Wednesday has the best chance of hitting critical
fire weather conditions across the area.
- Temperatures will trend upward beginning Monday with very warm
temperatures expected Wednesday.
- A cold front Wednesday night will bring back more seasonal
temperatures to the region Thursday, Friday and Saturday with
warmer readings returning Sunday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
H5 analysis from this morning largely had a zonal pattern across the
CONUS. An elongated area of high pressure extended from western
Texas, west southwest into central portions of Baja California.
Across the northern CONUS into southern Canada, numerous embedded
shortwaves were noted. The first was over British Columbia in to
southern Alberta. A second was located over the northern Great Lakes
and a third was located over eastern South Dakota into NW Iowa and
SW Minnesota. Mid and high level cloudiness, in association with the
SD/IA/MN shortwave extended from western Iowa and Minnesota, east
into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface this afternoon: A cold
front had passed through the forecast area overnight and was not
situated across far southern Oklahoma.Winds were gusty from the
north overnight and this morning and have slowly begun to diminish
this afternoon. Skies were generally mostly clear across the
southern half of Nebraska this afternoon. Across the northern half
of the state, skies were partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures as of
3 PM CT, ranged from 45 degrees at O`Neill, to 59 degrees at
Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Surface high pressure will track south-southeast from eastern
South Dakota into western Iowa overnight. Winds will be light
and variable this evening, shifting to the south overnight
across the western half of the forecast area. Wind speeds with
the wind shift will remain fairly light into the overnight,
generally 10 MPH or less. Overnight, an approaching jet streak
and weak mid level forcing will approach from the central
Rockies. This feature will spread some mid and high level
cloudiness across the area overnight. There is a small signal
for light precipitation in the latest NAM12, and 12z HRRR for
late tonight through the first half of Monday. The inherited
forecast continues to mention slight chances for precipitation
along a corridor from southwestern into central and northeastern
areas late tonight into early afternoon Monday. Given
indications of such from the deterministic NAM12 and 12z HRRR,
coupled with support from the NBM ensembles, which indicate 20
to 30% chances of measurable precipitation, decided to keep the
mention of pops, but limit to a slight chance mention. In
addition to the threat for light precipitation, gusty southerly
winds will develop behind the exiting high Monday afternoon. The
latest Bufkit soundings indicate decent mixing with mixed layer
winds in the 30 to 40 MPH range Monday afternoon. With forecast
min RH reaching 20 to 25 percent west of highway 183 Monday
afternoon, was concerned about critical fire weather conditions.
One aspect we have working against this notion Monday is
expected mid and high level cloudiness across the area. The
models this morning indicate a plume of mid and upper level
moisture and cloudiness working into the central Rockies the
central plains overnight. Aided by a upper level jet streak,
this moisture will overspread the forecast area Monday leading
to mostly cloudy skies across the area. Additionally, with a
threat for light precipitation Monday morning into early
afternoon, along with the expected cloud cover, decided to forgo
a red flag warning for tomorrow. Will continue to hit the near
critical threat hard in the HWO and partner DSS packets. Winds
will diminish quickly toward sunset Monday and cloud cover will
transition east of the area overnight. Lows will be in the lower
to middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
High pressure will become established over Arizona and New
Mexico Tuesday, building a broad ridge of high pressure north
into Montana. Warm air in association with this ridge will begin
to push into the forecast area on Tuesday. Highs will reach
into the 70s with lower 80s in SW Nebraska. Minimum RH Tuesday
afternoon will reach 15 to 25 percent across the area nearing
critical fire weather thresholds. Winds however are expected to
be much lighter compared to Monday. An inverted trough of low
pressure will be draped across the area Tuesday, limiting wind
gusts to the 10 to 20 MPH range. Will continue the near critical
verbiage to partners given the low MIN RH forecast. By
Wednesday, ridging across the west will begin to break down,
forcing even warmer air into the region. The latest NBM has
highs reaching the upper 80s across the eastern Panhandle and SW
Nebraska which is roughly in the 25th to 50th percentile of the
NBM ensemble forecast. ATTM, believe these highs will gradually
trend upward some as we near Wednesday as this is a similar
setup which led to the record temps yesterday. Based on forecast
H85 temps in the latest NAM and GFS solns which are a tad
cooler than yesterday afternoon`s H85 temps, believe we may
approach the 90 degree mark on Wednesday but stay below the
middle 90s we saw yesterday. That being said, widespread minimum
RH of 12 to 20 percent looks probable Wednesday afternoon.
Looking at Bufkit forecast soundings, we should be mixed up to
the H700 to H600 layer Wednesday afternoon. This yields gust
potential in the 25 to possibly 35 MPH range for a period
Wednesday afternoon which, combined with forecast min RH, will
yield critical fire weather conditions. A shortwave trough,
traversing the northern tier of states, will flatten the ridging
out west, forcing a cold front through the forecast area
Wednesday night. Behind the front Thursday, highs will reach
into the 60s Thursday, followed by 50s for Friday. Ridging will
become re- established Friday across the western CONUS. This
feature will then transition east next weekend with temperatures
rising into the 60s Saturday, then 70s on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026
VFR conditions are forecast at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the
next 24 hours. High cloudiness will increase tonight, with mid
cloudiness Monday morning with ceilings as low as BKN120.
Southerly winds will increase by 15Z, with gusts to 25KT, with
gusts to 30KT 18Z through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler/Roberg
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion