043
FXUS63 KLBF 231145
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
645 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to moderate confidence in light precipitation arriving
  this evening across the Pine Ridge and spreading southeast
  into Friday.

- Moderate confidence in embedded thunderstorms Friday night, but
  high confidence in a low severe potential.

- A decent amount of rainfall continues to look promising for
  most of western and north central Nebraska this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and rather unsettled conditions continue
  into next week, with chances for showers continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward
throughout the next few hours. Overall, the severe potential has
waned as these storms encounter a more stable environment. Minimal
QPF is expected with these showers with most locations seeing under
a tenth of an inch (0.10). In addition, some lightning will be
possible with these storms which may cause additional fire concerns
across the region especially with minimal precipitation expected out
of these storms.

For today, a return to drier conditions is expected behind the
departing front. Some mild cold air advection from the north into
the region will also result in some cooler temperatures today.
Expect highs to range from the mid 60s in the Pine Ridge to the mid
70s into portions of central Nebraska.

The drier air will be short lived as the next chance for light
precipitation will occur when a weak trough moves into western South
Dakota and into northwest Nebraska tonight. Current thinking is that
precipitation will push into northwest Nebraska and into the Pine
Ridge by Thursday evening starting as all rain. However, as
temperatures fall to near and below freezing overnight, rain will
change over to a rain/snow mix and even all snow in some of the
higher terrain. Any accumulations are expected to be under a half
inch, but some of the higher terrain could see up to 1 inch. Still
this should be isolated and confidence remains high that most
locations should only see accumulations limited to under a half
inch.

Precipitation will continue to push southeast through Friday and
into Friday night as the trough pivots across the upper Plains. Any
snow that did develop the previous night will change back to all
liquid as temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s. While much of the
region has the chance to see some rainfall, the best potential to
see the heaviest QPF will be north of Highway 2 where a quarter to
half inch (0.25 - 0.50) could be observed. There will also be a
threat for some embedded thunderstorms Friday evening and into the
overnight hours. With minimal instability across Nebraska, not
expecting severe storms, but some brief gusty winds up to 50 mph or
small hail could be experienced in some of the stronger
thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A change in the weather pattern occurs this weekend. An upper
level trough will move eastward across the Rockies Saturday,
with a warm front developing eastward across Kansas from a
deepening eastern Colorado surface low. Plenty of moisture
available, with strong Gulf moisture advection into the Southern
Plains Saturday. As the low deepens Saturday night across
eastern Colorado, the Gulf moisture will begin to advect
northward into Kansas as the warm front sharpens. On Sunday,
the warm front will lift northward toward southern Nebraska,
with moist upslope flow, dew points in the 50s, being advected
southeast to northwest across western Nebraska. Strong mid-level
FGEN develops late Saturday night into Sunday north of the warm
front, and a widespread beneficial rainfall look promising. ENS
probabilities for at least one half inch of QPF continue to
increase, with a 70-90% chance north of I-80 and 40-60% chance
to the south. This is supported by both the GEFS and Canadian
ensemble suite, so confidence continues to increase regarding
the potential rainfall. Wet snow still looks possible across
northwest Nebraska later Sunday, but models have warmed overall,
and accumulation looks unlikely at this time.

Unsettled conditions look to continue into next week. Periods
of scattered showers and cooler temperatures are anticipated
beneath an active westerly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A cold front will cross the area with winds shifting to the
northwest early this morning. Surface winds will increase to
20-30 kts later this morning and last into the afternoon hours.
Winds will decrease this evening and become light overnight.
VFR conditions are expected at all locations.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion