028
FXUS63 KLBF 080807
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures and gusty west winds will lead
  to increased fire weather concerns the next two days with a
  Fire Weather Watch in place for portions of western Nebraska
  Monday.

- A pair of cool fronts later this week will bring a few days of
  cooler temperatures and precipitation potential to the local
  area, including the threat of light snow.

- Rain and snow is expected across portions of the Sandhills
  and northern Nebraska Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time,
  any accumulations are expected to remain light.

- Critical fire weather concerns are looking increasingly likely
  on Thursday due to a combination of strong west winds and very
  low relative humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Early this morning, skies remain most clear with high cirrus
covering the central and northern Rockies. This sky cover was
tracking north to south and should remain west of the area through
the duration of Sunday. A modest surface track was stalled across
central Nebraska, hinted at by a subtle wind shift but increased
moisture to the west of the feature where dew points were in the
middle to upper 20s versus upper teens to lower 20s east. Steady
westerly winds will keep low temperatures on the mild side with
middle 20s to middle 30s, or nearly 5 to 15F above normal for early
March.

Sunday/Sunday night...surface trough will continue to slowly track
south and east as Pacific origin air continues to infiltrate the
area from the northwest. Eventually, winds will back to the
southwest as lee troughing deepens later in the day. This may draw
in drier Desert Southwest air while also boosting afternoon highs
considerably from Saturday`s values. Saturday evening RAOB data
measured an h85 temperature of 4.4C which nears the median value for
the date in the station`s climatology. Looking ahead to today,
persistent downsloping winds will help to push these values into the
middle to upper teens. With snowpack effectively erased,
temperatures should climb quickly across the area. Afternoon highs
received a good bump into the upper 60s and middle 70s. These values
are roughly 20 to 30F above normal for early to middle March. With
h7 trajectories nearly perpendicular to the Front Range, expecting
to see very dry air working in from the west. This will promote
increased fire weather concerns with details contained below in the
Fire Weather Discussion. Steady west winds continue overnight Sunday
into Monday. This will keep temperatures on the mild side with lows
ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Monday/Monday night...what appears to be the day of greatest fire
weather concern with details contained below in the Fire Weather
Discussion. Westerly mid-level flow will strengthen as the Polar Jet
settles south. A subtle shortwave will cross the Central Rockies
with lee cyclogenesis leading to a surface low developing over
eastern Wyoming. As a surface trough works down from the higher
terrain, westerly winds will increase markedly as more significant
dry air invades the region. The warming and drying of air descending
the topography will support even warmer temperatures as h85
temperatures make a run at 20C in our western zones. The going
forecast calls for widespread 70s to near 80F in our far south, but
this still undercuts NBM median values as well as most if not all
statistical outputs. The MAV solutions, which handles downslope dry
regime temperatures fairly well, suggests numerous spots hit 80F
including LBF which would be within 2F of a new record high. Gusty
west winds will largely be limited to the Sandhills, with fairly
quick decreases further south and east from this area. A notable
cold front will stall along the Nebraska/South Dakota border late in
the day, with a late push from increasing flow orthogonal to the
boundary as central low pressure shifts east. The result will be a
quick cooldown late Monday night. For now, forecast lows range from
lower 20s in the northwest to lower 30s south and east. As timing of
the front becomes more precise, expect some variability in these
forecast values.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A cold front quickly clears the area by late Tuesday morning, as a
surface low ejects east across Nebraska through the early morning
hours. This will bring a return of cooler temperatures for Tuesday
afternoon, with highs in the middle 40s across northern Nebraska to
the upper 50s south of I-80. This system will also bring a return of
precipitation, primarily across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska.
This is in response to the mid-level trough axis ejecting across the
area, with a constricting thermal gradient and increasing FGEN with
its passage. The increasing forcing will lead to initial light rain
and snow quickly moving from northwest to southeast across this
area, with an all snow p-type expected overnight. The speed of this
system combined with some low level dry air that will need to be
eroded should keep any precipitation amounts light across the area.
NBM probabilities continue to support this, with probabilities of
>0.10" only maximizing as high as 30-40% north of HWY 2.
Associated snow amounts are expected to remain 

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion