418
FXUS63 KLBF 261002
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
402 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous wind chill values continue Monday morning, with a
  quick warm-up expected by midday.

- Temperatures waver through the upcoming week as recurring cold shots
  dropping through the Missouri Valley clash with warmer air
  over the High Plains.

- A backdoor cold front will serve as the focus for light snow
  across western and central Nebraska Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 401 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region.
Surface high pressure has settled south into Kansas and as result
westerly flow has increased. The strong radiational cooling combined
with the increased wind has produced sub -20F wind chills across
much of western Nebraska. In fact, a few locations have threatened
Extreme Cold Warning criteria (-30F). Needless to say, dangerous
temperatures are being reported across the local area and folks
should take great precautions if heading out early this morning. At
these temperatures, hypothermia and frost bite can develop in as
little as 10 minutes if adequate precautions are not taken.

Monday...as mentioned, westerly flow continues to strengthen on the
northern periphery of the strong surface high pressure. Strong warm
air advection will overspread the area and daytime temperatures will
climb quickly across the area. This will bring a swift end to wind
chill concerns as forecast values exceed the -20F criteria by 9-10am
CST. This closely aligns with the inherited Cold Weather Advisory
expiration time and so no changes were made. HREF probabilities show
rapid increase of temperatures exceeding 32F by early afternoon west
of Highway 83 and show all locations surpassing 60% during the
daytime. A local minima is apparent along an Alliance to Callaway
line and this matches up with the greatest lingering snowpack from
days previous. So overall, highs should reach the middle 30s for all
and lower 40s for areas that are largely snow-free. Strong westerly
downsloping winds should drive the warmup and erosion of any light
snowpack. Gusts should approach 25 to 30 mph, strongest across the
Sandhills into north central Nebraska. In areas where little to no
snowpack exists and the afternoon temperatures climb the most, some
elevated fire weather concerns are possible. This is largely driven
by forecast wind gusts as humidity will fall short of reaching
critical levels.

Monday Night...westerly winds should wane through the evening as a
second high pressure system approaches from the north. The core of
cold air should remain to the north but westerly flow should lead to
cold air drainage in the valleys. Overall, lows should remain above
zero and closer to climatological values. This precludes any
additional wind chill concerns with forecast values in the -5F to 5F
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 401 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Tuesday-Wednesday...amplified ridging with strong height rises will
arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will allow temperatures to
climb through mid-week with 20s to 40s Tuesday and a return middle
40s and lower 50s for our southwest zones on Wednesday. The warmer
temperatures may reintroduce some increased fire weather concerns
but winds appear marginal so no headlines are anticipated.

Thursday-Saturday...ridging will breakdown by late week as a
disturbance dives southeast through the enhanced mid-level flow. At
the surface, strong high pressure will settle into the northern
Mississippi Valley and gradually settle south through the Central
Plains. The resulting baroclinic zone across the High Plains will be
the focus for precipitation Thursday night into Friday.
Precipitation will largely favor snow ample mid-level cold air
extends west towards the Front Range. At this time, QPF appears
limited to 0.10" or less thus any potential snowfall appears light
with EPS/GEFS guidance both painting only 30-50% probabilities for
seeing > 1" total snowfall for the model run. The bulk of any
precipitation should fall Friday but light precipitation may linger
into Saturday. Temperatures should moderate quickly though as upper-
level ridging builds back across the west.

Sunday and beyond...general thought is enhanced northwesterly flow
continues through the following weekend into early next week.
Multiple weak disturbances will pass through the flow and could
potentially bring additional light precipitation in the extended
forecast. NBM extended output shows great variability in forecast
temperatures for the start of this period, but confidence increases
in warmer temperatures by Day 7 with a potential return for
widespread 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Over the next 24 hours, expect mainly clear skies across western
and north central Nebraska. A few high clouds are possible
mainly Monday afternoon into the evening hours with few coverage
at 25000 FT AGL. Some scattered ceilings around 10000 FT AGL are
possible at the KVTN terminal Monday evening. Winds will shift
around to the west by Monday morning. Wind speeds will increase
with gusts of 20 to 25 KTS expected Monday afternoon. Winds will
gradually diminish Monday evening to under 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning
for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion