482
FXUS63 KLBF 230852
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
352 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Well above-normal temperatures are expected Friday, with highs in
the upper 70s to middle 80s. Strong southerly winds are also
expected, with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
-Rainfall chances increase Friday evening into Saturday, with more
widespread rainfall expected Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
- Moderate to high confidence in cooler conditions along with
rainfall through early week.
- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and warmer temperatures
by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Currently, a southern-stream upper-level trough is located across
the Desert Southwest, as evident on upper- and mid-level water vapor
satellite imagery. This trough will gradually progress eastward
toward the region through the day, resulting in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains. Ahead of this
system, deep moisture transport will persist across the area, with
the 00Z RAOB measuring a PWAT of 1.20 inches, near the daily maximum
for this time of year. This anomalously moist air mass will remain
in place as a strong low-level jet maintains northward moisture
transport through the day. Temperatures this morning will remain
well above average, with lows generally in the middle to upper 50s
across the area, more than 20 degrees above average for late
October. The combination of persistent southerly winds and increased
low-level mixing should limit the potential for fog development,
unlike the previous several mornings. Through the day Friday, the
approaching upper-level trough will support the development and
deepening of a sub-1000-mb surface low along the lee of the Rockies
across Wyoming and Montana. As the surface low strengthens, the
pressure gradient will tighten across the region, resulting in
increasing southerly winds. Forecast guidance indicates winds of 40
to 45 knots at both 850 and 700 mb, with BUFKIT soundings supporting
sufficient boundary-layer mixing to transport some of the stronger
momentum aloft toward the surface. Given this signal, have trended
toward the stronger wind guidance, with sustained winds of 25 to 35
mph and gusts of 45 to 50 mph expected, particularly during the
afternoon hours. In addition to the strong winds, warm air advection
will increase within the lower to middle levels throughout the day.
Strengthening southwesterly flow near 700 mb and 850-mb temperatures
increasing into the 20 to 25C range, combined with clearing skies
and sufficient boundary-layer mixing, should allow afternoon
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of
the area. Across southwest Nebraska, highs may reach the middle 80s,
where deeper mixing and downslope influences may support additional
warming. These temperatures will remain quite anomalous for late
October, generally around 20 to 25 degrees above average. By late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening, a cold front will begin
approaching the area from the northwest as the surface low and
associated upper-level trough progress eastward. Increasing upper-
level divergence and forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching
trough, combined with low-level convergence along the frontal
boundary, should support scattered shower development, particularly
across northwestern portions of the forecast area. The anomalously
moist air mass may also support locally enhanced precipitation rates
where sufficient ascent becomes established. However, uncertainty
remains regarding the timing and coverage of precipitation,
particularly during the initial stages of frontal passage. Trends
will continue to be monitored throughout the day. Friday night, the
advancing cold front will result in a considerable temperature
gradient across the forecast area. Overnight lows should fall into
the upper 30s to middle 40s across western and northwestern
Nebraska, where stronger cold air advection will occur behind the
front. Farther east, temperatures should remain relatively mild,
with lows generally in the lower to middle 50s ahead of the boundary.
Saturday, the cold front will continue progressing southeastward
across the area, resulting in a shift to northwesterly winds behind
the boundary. Winds will remain somewhat gusty, with sustained
speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph possible. As the front
progresses southeastward into the deeper moisture, increasing low-
level convergence and frontogenetical forcing near 850 mb, combined
with continued upper-level support ahead of the approaching trough,
should result in increasing precipitation coverage through the day.
Confidence is gradually increasing in more widespread rainfall
across the area Saturday, particularly as the frontal boundary
interacts with the anomalously moist air mass. With PWAT values well
above average for late October, locally moderate to heavy rainfall
rates may be possible where stronger ascent becomes established.
However, uncertainty remains regarding the placement of the heaviest
precipitation and the overall coverage of rainfall, which will
depend on the timing and evolution of the frontal boundary and
associated upper-level forcing. While severe weather is not
expected, isolated thunderstorms remain possible, particularly where
elevated instability develops north of the surface boundary.
Temperatures Saturday will be considerably cooler behind the front
as cold air advection, persistent cloud cover, and precipitation
limit daytime warming. Highs should remain in the lower to middle
50s across northwestern Nebraska, with lower to middle 60s expected
farther south and east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Active weather continues on Sunday through Monday as a shortwave
trough pushes off the Rockies and an upper level low deepens over
Nebraska. This system will bring the potential of widespread
significant rainfall to the area. While QPF amounts are still a
little uncertain, confidence is high that most locations will see at
least a half inch of rainfall. Some locations across north central
Nebraska could even see over an inch under some of the heavier
showers or thunderstorms. While these rainfall totals are
significant, the longer duration of this system should keep any
flooding concerns at bay. Still, will be monitoring the rainfall
totals and flooding potential closely as the event unfolds.
Precipitation will begin to push out of the area Monday night,
completely exiting the area by Tuesday morning. A brief dry period
will push in for mid-week as weak upper level ridging and surface
high pressure builds into the region. A return to some scattered
showers is expected on Wednesday, however, confidence in shower
development is very low. Will continue to monitor this mid-week
showers over the next few days.
For temperatures, continued rain and clouds as well as cold air
advection into the region will keep temperatures cooler than normal
Sunday and Monday. Highs will only rise into the 50s both day, with
some locations across the Pine Ridge not rising out of the 40s.
Warmer weather arrives Tuesday as ridging builds back over Nebraska.
A return to warm air advection and sunshine will allow temperatures
to steadily rise back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
The main aviation concern will be gusty southerly winds through
Friday evening. These stronger winds will create areas of low level
wind shear through this morning and again after sunset tonight as
the low level jet intensifies. Otherwise, the strongest winds will
be in the afternoon with gusts up to 35 knots at times. Winds will
decrease slightly this evening, but will remain above 25 knots
through 06Z Saturday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion