459
FXUS63 KLBF 161146
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
546 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs today and Tuesday will run 25 to 30 degrees above normal with
  readings reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s both days.
  High temperatures on Wednesday will be between 10 and 20
  degrees above normal.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  today through Wednesday with the greatest threat for
  widespread critical fire weather conditions Tuesday.

- Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday. There are
  chances for snow Wednesday night/Thursday with the main threat
  over northern Nebraska. Chances are looking somewhat better
  for at least some accumulation. Mainly during the day Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a broad, low amplitude ridge
across the central CONUS. East of the ridge, were a tandem of short
waves: The first was over the eastern Great Lakes and a second,
stronger shortwave was located over southwestern Georgia. West of
the ridge tonight, was a closed low approximately 200 miles off the
coast of northern California. Southwest of this low, WV imagery
indicated a strong shortwave approximately 700 miles southwest of
this feature. Overnight, a broad stream of mid and upper level
cloudiness continued to stream into the central Rockies from
southern California. This led to partly to mostly cloudy skies
across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Today through Tuesday...The upper level trough, off
the coast of California currently, will approach San Fransisco this
afternoon. Downstream of this feature, ridging will amplify across
the High Plains, north into Saskatchewan. Very warm air will remain
in place across western and north central this afternoon. Forecast
H85 temps this afternoon are similar to Sunday afternoon`s ranging
from 9 to 13C across the forecast area. The NBM deterministic
initialized with a high of 69 for North Platte today. Blending in
some 50%tile ensemble NBM with the deterministic NBM yielded forecast
highs 1 to 2 degrees warmer which was in better agreement with the
MET and MAV statistical guidance. The MET and MAV guidance has been
doing a better job lately with highs compared to the deterministic
NBM. Winds will be fairly light today with the upper level ridge
just off to the west. Even with a dry boundary layer, the light
winds will curtail any critical fire danger this afternoon. More
about that in the fire section below. For tonight the NAM and 00z
HRRR soln push a tongue of low level moisture into eastern Nebraska
overnight. Some of this moisture will push into the far northeastern
CWA overnight. Forecast soundings for the O`Neill area indicate a
saturated layer below 850 MB with a very distinct dry layer above
this moist layer. Modest lift in the boundary layer will increase
the threat for drizzle in Boyd and Holt counties. As for the threat
for fog, the HRRR and NAM sfc visby products are not indicating a fog
threat attm and will not mention this with this forecast package.
Lows Monday night will be very mild across the area with readings in
the middle 30s to lower 40s. This would lead to some record high
minimum temps across the area. On Tuesday a piece of the west coast
trough will migrate into northern Wyoming and western South Dakota.
Low pressure will develop and quickly deepen over southwestern and
south central South Dakota during the day Tuesday. Strong west winds
will develop across the western half of the forecast area by
afternoon with gust potential in the 45 to 55 MPH range generally
west of highway 83. Winds will diminish slightly east of this line,
but still have the potential of 30 to 40 MPH gusts. Two pockets of
highest gust potential are noted in the latest EC Ensembles and NBM
Ensembles: The first area is over the northwestern Nebraska
Panhandle, and the second over the central panhandle into Garden
County. The latest NBM ensemble indicates a 50% chance of of 50+ MPH
wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. When this threshold is increased to 60
MPH, the chances for hitting this mark drop to under 10%. That being
said, do not feel confident enough to hoist a high wind watch for
the area for Tuesday.

As for highs Tuesday, strong westerly downsloping winds will
facilitate strong mixing up to H700 in some cases. With H85 temps 10
to 14C across the area, highs should reach the middle 60s over
northern Nebraska with some middle 70s possible in southeastern
portions of the forecast area. The current forecast has a high of 72
for North Platte and 75 for Broken Bow Tuesday. These readings would
tie record highs for that date. ATTM, forecast highs should fall
just short of records for Valentine and Imperial. The inherited
forecast did have a mention of low pops in eastern areas Tuesday
afternoon into the early evening hours. These were eliminated with
this forecast package. This was due to the strong westerly winds and
very dry air being carried into the forecast area from the Panhandle
Tuesday afternoon. In some of the latest hi res model solns, surface
dew points may reach the single digits above zero in southwestern
and western Nebraska mid afternoon Tuesday. Further east, dew points
in the teens will extend all the way to a line from Bassett to
Burwell. By evening all areas will see dew points in the single
digits to the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Winds will remain breezy from the west through the night Tuesday
night. Humidity recovery will be poor, ranging from 40-45% across
southwest Nebraska to around 65% far northwest portions of the
state. This will set the stage for another potentially critical fire
weather day across the area Wednesday. It appears that north central
Nebraska will see the strongest winds (northwest 20-30 mph) around
midday. Winds then begin to decrease during the afternoon all areas,
and actually shift to the southeast across the Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska as a leeward trough begins to deepen across the
western high Plains. Lowest humidity Wednesday will again be at
critical or near critical values across all of western and
north central Nebraska. It is possible that all or at least
some of the area could require fire weather headlines.

Both the GFS and ECMWF bring a quick moving, potent negatively
tilted upper-trough across the region Thursday. Chances are
increasing for at least some accumulating snowfall with this system.
Surface cyclogenesis should be underway by Wednesday
afternoon/evening across eastern Colorado. Operational models agree
that this surface low will track across northern Kansas during the
day Thursday. Ensemble probabilities of at least at least one tenth
of an inch of QPF have increased and have trended farther south. ENS
is the most bullish with a 60-80% chance and is centered across the
Sandhills to the north of I-80. This would bring a solid 3+" of snow
accumulation to much of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska.
GEFS probabilities are lower, and thus accumulations are less, under
2". The focus, however, is in the general same area of the Sandhills
and northern Nebraska. Still uncertainty, but confidence has
increase some that at least some accumulating snow will likely occur
Thursday. Surface high pressure will slide southeastward into the
area Thursday night. Quite cold by Friday morning, with lows Friday
morning in the single digits across northern Nebraska and 10-15F
elsewhere.

Flow aloft becomes more zonal Friday ans Saturday, with ridging
aloft nudging eastward from the Rockies by Sunday. Temperatures will
be more seasonal for the weekend, especially if there is snow
cover. As of now highs look to average near or slightly below
average for both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska today through tonight. Bouts of mid and high
level cloudiness can be expected otherwise clear skies. Winds
will be light through the period at 10 kts or less. Low-level
wind shear will become a concern after midnight tonight as
southerly to southwest winds increase just off the surface.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Very dry air and highs in the upper 60s to near 70,
will lead to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent across all of the
forecast area this afternoon. Winds will be fairly light today
underneath a ridge of high pressure aloft. The light winds will
preclude any critical fire weather conditions across the area.
However, the low relative humidity this afternoon will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions given the forecast low RH. RH
recovery will be limited tonight over far southwestern Nebraska with
max RH reaching around 60 percent in the Imperial area. For locations
generally east of highway 83 RH recovery should reach 80 to 90
percent. On Tuesday, strong westerly winds will develop south of an
intense surface low over southern South Dakota. By afternoon, with
the exception of far northeastern areas, there is a greater than 80
percent chance of wind gusts above 25 MPH. Additionally, the 00Z
HRRR, NAM and GFS solns push very dry air into the forecast area
from the Panhandle during the afternoon hours. By 21z Tuesday some
areas in the western forecast area could see dew points in the
single digits. With forecast highs ranging from the mid 60s to
middle 70s and resultant minimum RH reaching as low as 12 percent,
went ahead and hoisted a fire weather watch from noon through 8 PM
CT for Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to whether
far northeastern portions of zone 209 (Holt County) and eastern
portions of 208 (Boyd County) will reach low enough RH and high
enough wind gusts Tuesday. However, since these zones extend to the
southwest (zone 209) and west (zone 208) where we should hit
critical criteria, those zones were included in the watch.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion