820
FXUS63 KLBF 232007
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area into this
  evening. A few storms could be strong to severe primarily
  along and south of Interstate 80. Hail and damaging winds are
  the main threats.

- A threat for strong to severe storms returns Sunday afternoon
  and evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 83.
  Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.

- Additional threats for showers and thunderstorms exist nearly
  each day early and middle next week, though confidence in
  locations and precipitation amounts remains low for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Surface high pressure has moved off to the east of the area today,
leading to increasing southwesterly flow in its wake. This has
allowed for temperatures to quickly return to the 70s across the
area this afternoon. With modest surface moisture (dewpoints in the
upper 30s to 40s) beneath steep lapse rates aloft, marginal MLCAPE
~250-500 J/kg is in place across western Nebraska. Scattered
thunderstorm development is underway west of HWY 61 and along/north
of HWY 2 early this afternoon. These storms are expected to
gradually strengthen and pose a risk of hail and damaging winds,
with winds being the more prevalent threat. This is due to deep
inverted-v profiles in the lowest few kilometers, with low-level dry
air in place. The strongest deep layer shear (~20-30kts) is in place
across southwest Nebraska today, and this is where the threat for a
strong to severe storm is greatest locally. Some clustering of
storms may occur as they move quickly from west to east across the
area, before waning and exiting the area near and after sunset.

Attention then turns to a potentially more robust severe weather
setup for tomorrow. As southerly flow continues into tomorrow, a
narrow corridor of middle to upper 50s dewpoints are expected to
overspread areas along and east of HWY 83 ahead of an encroaching
surface trough. With steep lapse rates aloft still in place, the
increasing surface buoyancy will promote greater instability
tomorrow afternoon. MLCAPE values climbing to as high as ~1500-
2000J/kg are expected across much of central and north central
Nebraska. Deep layer shear will be stronger tomorrow as well, on the
order of 30-40kts, and be oriented largely perpendicular to the
southwest to northeast surface trough. This points towards a
discrete supercell storm mode at least initially, and should lead to
a threat for large to potentially significant (>2") hail near
and east of HWY 83. Some threat for damaging winds will also
exist, especially should any upscale growth occur with time. Low
level shear remains meager, and though moisture does increase
modestly, increased T/Td spreads point towards rather high LCLs
tomorrow. This should limit a threat for tornadoes, though
trends will continue to be monitored. Storms exit off to the
east by late evening, with dry conditions then expected tomorrow
night.

Will also have to monitor a threat for elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions west of the aforementioned surface
trough. Here, warm temperatures in the middle to upper 80s and
much drier air will lead to humidity values falling into the
teens. The biggest limiting factor at this time looks to be
winds, with guidance suggesting the westerly winds remaining
weaker behind the surface trough tomorrow. Still, trends will
need to be monitored closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A rather complex upper air pattern is expected to evolve into next
week, and lends to lowered confidence in any thunderstorm threats
across the local area. The primary feature of note for the central
US is the placement of a ridge axis, as it amplifies across the
middle Mississippi Valley into the northern Plains into midweek.
This keeps the local area on the western periphery of this ridge,
and potentially under the influence of slow moving upper low
pressure by middle to late next week. The upper air pattern looks to
become largely stagnant through the next week, as an omega block
develops across the CONUS. Until placement of upper features become
more certain, it will be difficult to pin down the exact nature of
any thunderstorm threats locally. That said, the environment in
place does look conducive for potentially locally heavy
rainfall, with weak steering flow and PWAT values approaching
the 99th percentile climo by late week. Trends will continue to
be monitored, though optimism does exist for some beneficial
moisture across the area where extreme to exceptional drought
continues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across western and north central Nebraska through tomorrow
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening across the area, with a threat for brief MVFR
visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. Any lingering thunderstorms
quickly end after sunset.

Winds remain southwesterly into this evening, at 10 to 15kts.
Winds then become south overnight, remaining at 10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion