844
FXUS63 KLBF 090839
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
239 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The combination of record temperatures, low humidity, and
gusty west winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns
across a large portion of western and north central Nebraska
today.
- Mainly dry, with only slight or low chances for any
precipitation, and above average temperatures will persist
Tuesday through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
Today, a shortwave trough will move across North Dakota and
western South Dakota, and drive a strong cold front southward
to near the NE/SD border by late afternoon. South of the front,
the entire forecast area the will have westerly winds turn to
the northwest by late afternoon. The strongest winds will be
west of Valentine through Ogallala, where winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gust up to 40 mph are expected. areas to the east will see
winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. With an upper
ridge breakdown, and approaching cold front, record high
temperatures are expected, with highs from the the upper 60s to
mid 70s. These highs will be from 25 to nearly 35 degrees above
normal. went near the NBM 50th percentile to forecast these very
warm temperatures. Current record highs for Monday are 74, 70,
69, and 72 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial
respectively. Record highs are likely to be broken at Imperial,
North Platte, and Broken Bow.
Critical fire weather conditions will occur today across a large
portion of western and north central Nebraska, due to the warm
temperatures, low humidity and gusts winds. Details can be found
in the Fire Weather Section below.
Cooler temperatures aloft move through behind the cold front
tonight, with H85 temperatures falling to 0 to -2C. Northerly
winds behind the front will range from 15 to 25 mph this
evening, diminishing to 5 to 15 mph overnight. A mainly cloudy
sky tonight. with lows from the mid to upper 20s. Tuesday with
be much cooler, with highs ranging from 45 to 50 degrees,
although these highs are from 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday
through Friday, warming to 55 to 60 by Sunday as an upper ridge
builds across the region. These highs are forecast to still
range 10 to 15 degrees above normal through Friday, and 15 to
near 20 degrees above normal by Sunday.
Overall upper ridging will persist across the region, with a
positively tilted upper trough moving the region Thursday
through Friday night. 20 to 30 POPS remain in the forecast
Wednesday night into Thursday morning across north central
Nebraska, though the ECMWF ensemble only shows a 10 to 30
percent probability of greater than a hundredth of an inch and
the GEFS ensemble 10 to 20 percent.
The Friday into Friday night period will bring mainly slight
chance POPS across southwest into central Nebraska which is
supported by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. The GEFS indicates a
10 to 40 percent probability of receiving at least a tenth of
an inch liquid, while the ECMWF only a 10 to 30 percent
probability. Overall, the potential for a wetting rain is very
low for days 3 through 7. Precipitation type favors rain.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all of western
and north central Nebraska through Monday evening. Surface
winds will be light tonight. Winds will become gusty from the
west, then northwest Monday afternoon, especially across the
Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Winds turn northerly
Monday evening, with gusts to 25kts for a few hours behind the
cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of western
Nebraska and the Sandhills this afternoon. Temperatures likely
to reach record values in the mid 70s across much of western,
central and southwest Nebraska tomorrow. This will combine with
very dry conditions and push humidity values into the mid
teens this afternoon. West winds will quickly strengthen across
western Nebraska after mid morning, with a quick onset of critical
fire conditions. The strongest winds will be west of Valentine
through Ogallala, where winds of 20 to 30 mph with gust up to 40
mph are expected. Areas to the east will see winds of 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
By late afternoon, a cold front will enter northern Nebraska
and quickly move south across the area by mid evening. This
will lead to an abrupt shift in winds from to west to the north,
along with increasing north winds with its passage. This would
be of concern with any new fire starts this afternoon.
Temperatures then cool back into the upper 40s to 50s each day
Tuesday through Saturday. This will keep humidity values above
critical thresholds, though winds do look to increase from the
south on Wednesday. Lessening fire concerns are expected beyond
tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. This is
especially true with widespread wetting moisture not
materializing over the next week.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion