414
FXUS63 KLBF 271151
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures waver extensively through the upcoming weekend,
  with a brief warm up on Wednesday before falling to well
  below-normal values by Friday.

- Light snow potential continues for Thursday into Friday
  (35-55%) then again Saturday (20-40%) for much of western and
  central Nebraska.

- After a brief late week cold snap, temperatures will quickly
  climb to above-normal early next week with further increases
  with later forecasts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Early this morning, dry and quiet conditions were noted across
western Nebraska. Surface high pressure was building south across
the Northern Plains and was propelling a stationary boundary across
western Nebraska. Further west, strong flow off the surface was
producing high level clouds off the Front Range which was slowly
filling in over western Nebraska. Morning lows were generally in the
teens with few exceptions. Though light winds continued across the
area, wind chill values were much warmer than previous mornings with
all reporting stations recording positive values.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...1030+ hPa surface high pressure will glance
by the area to the east through the day today. This will bring with
it an influx of colder air and will create a sharp discrepancy
across the local area. Overall temperature trend was to decrease
afternoon highs with MET/MAV guidance showing reasonable agreement.
This produced highs ranging from the low 40s in the southwest to
lower 20s in the northeast. Skies should fill in with cloud cover
through the day but dry conditions are expected. Tonight, slightly
colder air will move in from the northeast as high pressure extends
south into the lower Missouri Valley. A return to westerly flow will
favor cold air drainage and with forecast lows generally in the
teens, the coldest of these values will favor river valleys and
other typical cold spots.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...westerly flow will continue through the
early part of the day. This will promote warm air advection (WAA)
and a boost to afternoon highs. The frontal boundary will likely
stall across north central Nebraska with below normal temperatures
again likely for a select few. Otherwise, highs will climb into the
middle 40s to lower 50s or up to 10F above normal. The downsloping
flow across the western half of the forecast area will promote
drying conditions and afternoon humidities are expected to fall to
around 20% for far southwest Nebraska into the southern Panhandle.
While typically supportive of elevated fire weather concerns, NBM
probabilities of exceeding 22 knot (25 mph) gusts fall short of 40%
in these same areas therefore believe concerns are quite low. With
the baroclinic zone set up across our northeast, the increasing lift
from an approaching shortwave will increase precipitation chances
for areas generally along and north of Highway 2. Temperatures will
be plenty cold and support an all snow precipitation type. Any
snowfall accumulation should remain light with SREF/EPS/GEFS
probabilities of measurable QPF limited to around 40-50% for along
the Nebraska/South Dakota border through daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Thursday through Saturday...weak forcing will persist over the next
few days as strong high pressure builds into the Northern Plains
heading into Friday and departs to the south by early Saturday. The
stalled boundary between the Arctic air to the east and warmer air
over the higher terrain will allow periodic light snow to continue
Thursday heading into the weekend. Within the strong northwesterly
flow off the surface, a plume of Pacific moisture will round the
ridge to the west and move into the Plains. After Thursday morning,
precipitation potential decreases heading into Thursday evening
before the next round of light snow moves in from western South
Dakota. NBM shows an increase in 1" or greater snowfall potential
with nearly 50% extending southeast from the eastern slope of the
Black Hills into the central Sandhills. Similarly, EPS/GEFS mean
outputs show good agreement painting a swath of 0.05"+ QPF in this
same area. While not the most significant of liquid equivalent, with
the expectation of seeing 15-20:1 SLRs believe a few locations will
likely exceed 1" of snowfall through early Friday. Temperatures will
be much colder with highs largely below freezing for all locations
again supporting an all-snow event. As the core of high pressure
passes to the east early Saturday, temperatures will fall quickly
with sub-zero lows to the east of Highway 83. Similar to this
previous Monday morning, as winds increase closer to daybreak, wind
chill values should fall and the latest forecast calls for negative
teens for central Nebraska and points east. Given potential for
forecast lows to further fall thanks to fresh snow, will need to
closely watch for potential need for cold weather headlines.
Confidence in snow for Saturday decreases as track of high pressure
varies significantly by the main deterministic outputs. EPS/GEFS
favor areas to our northeast for more appreciable QPF but still show
sizable differences. The inherited PoPs from the model blend focus
over our eastern zones and believe this is adequate for now. Any
precipitation should wane heading into later into Saturday, with dry
conditions expected by the late evening for most if not all.

Sunday and beyond...temperatures climb quickly early next week as
upper-level ridging translates east into the Great Basin. Ridge axis
will arrive sometime Monday/Tuesday before the next trough moves in
by Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM spreads narrow, suggesting fairly
reasonable confidence in the warm up, with forecast highs returning
to the 40s and low 50s. The model blend populated daytime highs
closer to the 25th Percentile of the NBM envelope and therefore it`s
plausible that later forecasts could trend upwards. A few GEFS/EPS
members show fairly impressive QPF output for the middle of the week
disturbance, though this constitutes only about 10-25% of the total
ensemble members of each respective model suite. Outside of this,
the forecast favors dry conditions with only a brief cooldown before
returning to above normal values for the latter half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Mid and high clouds will steadily stream through the area for
the first half of the forecast period but impacts on aviation
operations will be minimal. Skies should clear tonight with
winds falling to less than 10 knots favoring the southwest and
then west.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion