775
FXUS63 KLBF 211151
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in drier conditions through Monday with
  temperatures remaining below normal. Warmer Tuesday and
  Wednesday with low forecast confidence in temps beyond Friday.

- Moderate confidence in wind chills dropping into the negative
  single digits both Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Light snow has struggled to overcome the drier air across southwest
Nebraska this evening. For the most part, snow has come to an end
across the region. A few lingering flurries may still fall through
early morning, but little to no accumulations are expected.

Surface high pressure will then build into the region today lasting
through the weekend. Cold air advection with 850 mb temperatures in
the -12 to -5 C range will keep surface temperatures below normals
(mid 40s). Colder air will filter into Nebraska resulting in highs
in the 30s for most locations, although, some locations across
extreme southwest Nebraska could see highs reach into the low 40s.
As far as overnight lows go, temperatures remain chilly tonight
(Saturday night) with widespread lows in the single digits. Lows
Sunday night rise a few degrees with values ranging from the low
teens in the west to the single digits in the east. Some moderate
winds gusts up to 15 mph both Saturday and Sunday nights across
northern Nebraska could lower wind chill values into the negative
single digits across this area. After sunrise, temperatures will
quickly rise, bringing a quick end to these colder temperatures.
Still, those sensitive to the cold should take extra precautions if
out early Sunday or Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A broad, low amplitude ridge of high pressure will build into
the western CONUS Monday, and will persist through midweek. A
warm front will lift across the forecast area Monday as arctic
high pressure tracks into the lower Missouri Valley. Timing of
the warm front is fairly consistent between the NAM, GFS and EC
solns tonight. This feature will pass through the western third
of the forecast area by midday, not reaching the eastern
forecast area until late afternoon Monday. With this timing,
highs will vary widely across the area with readings in the
middle 30s in the O`Neill area, to the lower 50s generally west
of highway 61. Tuesday will be much warmer across the area with
highs generally in the 60s with temps approaching 70 in far SW
Nebraska. West winds will increase during the afternoon hours
south of an approaching cold front located over South Dakota.
The combination of RH of 15 to 20 percent and some gusty winds,
will lead to elevated fire weather conditions over far SW
Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. Beginning Wednesday and continuing
through the end of the work week, the forecast becomes more
uncertain. Currently there is decent model differences between
the operational GFS and EC solns and the NBM forecast and its
ensembles. The first major differences are with respect to
precipitation chances Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest
NBM depicts a probabilistic forecast with low probabilities for
measurable (0.01") precipitation less than 40 percent. When this
threshold is raised to 0.05", the probabilities drop to less
than 20 percent. The current NBM forecast tonight has slight
chances for pops Wednesday into Thursday morning and this seems
reasonable given differences in the deterministic GFS and EC
solns vs. the NBM and NBM ensembles. However, a word of caution
here as the GFS soln does have an intense area of mid level lift
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a robust band of
0.50 to 1.00" of precipitation extending from the Black Hills
into northeastern Nebraska. Dry and above normal temperatures
will close out the work week with readings in the 50s/60s
Thursday and 60s Friday. Beyond, Friday the latest EC and GFS
deterministic solns have a strong arctic front impacting the
central and northern plains next weekend. Sharply colder air has
support from the GFS and EC ensembles, however the NBM has a
large range in highs for next Saturday (for LBF the 25th and
75th%ile highs range from 47 to 80). That being said, forecast
confidence beyond Friday falls off sharply.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Expect VFR conditions across western and north central Nebraska
after 14z Saturday. Ceilings will be scattered ranging from
20000 to 25000 FT AGL. Some mid level clouds are possible at the
KVTN terminal from 20Z to 24Z this afternoon with broken
ceilings at 10000 FT AGL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion