556
FXUS63 KLBF 221130
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
530 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected across the region
tonight through Friday morning. Wind chills of 20 below or
colder are expected across the region, with wind chills of 30
below or colder across north central Nebraska.
- Accumulating snowfall is expected across the region late
tonight through Saturday afternoon. Accumulations of 1 to 2
inches are expected, though locally higher amounts are
possible, especially across the Sandhills.
- Saturday, Sunday, and Monday morning remain bitterly cold.
Wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero are possible each morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
A cold front tracks south across the Dakotas today, with a strong
surface high pressure building in behind it. The surface high and
supportive cold air advection aloft will usher in very cold
temperatures tonight and into the weekend. AS the front arrives this
afternoon, cooler temperatures are expected across northern
Nebraska, with highs in the 20s. Further to the south, highs climb
to the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tonight, however, temperatures plummet to subzero across the region,
with overnight lows ranging from 1 to 12 below zero. With these
frigid temperatures, overnight wind chills drop to 20 below or
colder across the region, with wind chills approaching 30 below and
colder across north central Nebraska. Given these wind chills
through late Friday morning, have upgraded the Extreme Cold Watch
across north central Nebraska to a Warning, and have issued a Cold
Weather Advisory across the rest of the region. Have also extended
the end time until Noon CST Friday, as very cold wind chills linger
throughout the morning. This will also set up a very cold day on
Friday, with highs in the upper single digits in southwest Nebraska
and subzero highs across north central Nebraska. Though afternoon
wind chills climb above 20 below, wind chills remain cold, generally
remaining 10 to 15 below throughout the afternoon.
Also on Friday, a surface low deepens off the lee of the Rocky
Mountains, bringing chances for accumulating snowfall across most of
western and north central Nebraska. The last several forecasts,
these probabilities have been increasing. However, these last few
forecast cycles have also seen an uptick in snowfall amounts as
well. These snow showers are expected to last through Saturday
afternoon, bringing at least an inch of snow across most of the
region. Even the still pessimistic GEFS ensemble, highlight an 80
percent probability of 1 inch of snowfall across the Sandhills.
While confidence has increased in snow occurring, the snowfall
amounts still remain somewhat uncertain. Ensemble guidance indicates
a low chance of exceeding 3 inches of snow, however some
deterministic models highlight a chance of 3 inches in regions
across the Sandhills where higher amounts are possible. In general,
have included 1 to 2.5 inches of accumulations in the forecast, with
highest amounts across the Sandhills. However, there is still
potential for these amounts to change over the next forecast cycle,
especially as more fine scale features are resolved.
Snow aside, this weekend remains quite cold. Friday night will again
see overnight lows plunging below zero, with widespread lows of 5 to
10 below zero. Wind chills across the region Friday night into
Saturday morning drop around 15 to 20 below zero across the region.
Worth mentioning, the NBM has been keeping temperatures on the
warmer side, often exceeding the 75th percentile. With this in mind,
and in collaboration with neighboring offices, have forced in lower
temperatures than what the NBM provided. With this in mind, will
still need to keep an eye on these temperature and wind chill
trends, as additional cold weather headlines may be needed this
weekend.
As for Saturday, snow showers are expected to last through the
afternoon. Cloud cover, in addition to the cold air advection, will
limit daytime heating across the region, generally keeping highs in
the single digits to low teens. Wind chills throughout the day
remain cold, just above zero across the Panhandle, remaining below
zero across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Lows remain
cold Saturday night as well. Subzero lows persist Saturday night,
with wind chills 10 to 15 below zero lasting through late Sunday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
After another cold start on Sunday morning, upper level ridging
begins to develop across western Nebraska, which should usher in
some warmer temperatures early week through mid week. Sunday remains
cool, with highs in the teens and 20s across the region. This will
set up another cold start on Monday morning, with subzero lows again
and wind chills around 10 to 15 below zero. However, by Monday
afternoon, could see temperatures back into the 40s across western
Nebraska, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 30s across north
central Nebraska. In general, this seems to the pattern for next
week, with warmer temperatures across western and southwestern
Nebraska and cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska. This
period also appears to be a mostly dry forecast, with little
precipitation expected. However, much like last weekend`s forecast
for this week, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in
temperatures. In fact, just like last weekend, a nearly 20 degree
spread can be seen between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles. At
this range, best to continue monitoring forecast trends, which does
indicate some warming, rather than focus on specific numbers. There
will likely be change in forecast highs as guidance comes into
agreement.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
A cold front tracks south across the Dakotas today, tracking into
the region late afternoon. The frontal passage will bring northerly
to northeasterly winds across the region, as well as introduce lower
ceilings and potential for overnight snow showers. Throughout the
day, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. By tonight, MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected across western Nebraska, spreading east.
Snow showers are currently expected to remain out of the KLBF and
KVTN terminals during this TAF period, with snow showers and MVFR to
IFR conditions just beyond the effective TAF period. However, this
may change in follow on forecasts as the timing of the front is
refined.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for NEZ004-022>026-035>038-056>059-
069>071-094.
Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday
for NEZ005>010-027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion