FXUS63 KLBF 272037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

H5 analysis this morning had an area of closed low pressure
straddling the New Mexico/Arizona border. North of this feature, a
low amplitude ridge extended north from northern Wyoming into
northern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. West of this
ridge, low pressure was located just east of the southeastern
Alaska panhandle. A trough of low pressure extended south of this
feature to approximately 700 miles west off of the coast of
northern California. East of the ridge, closed low pressure was
located over central Quebec with a trough extending south of this
feature into New England. At the surface, high pressure was
anchored over the northern Great Lakes with a weak frontal
boundary draped across northeastern Nebraska into eastern South
Dakota. Winds were variable across the area this afternoon with
easterly winds from southwestern into northeastern Nebraska,
southerly winds in the central and northern Sandhills and
southwesterly winds in the eastern Panhandle. Temperatures as of 2
PM CDT, under mostly clear skies, ranged from 88 at O`Neill to 94
at Valentine.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Precipitation chances are the main forecasting challenge over the
next 36 hours. For tonight, the H5 low mentioned above, will
track northeast into south central Colorado. North and northeast
of this feature, a surface trough of low pressure will deepen
overnight. Southerly winds will increase toward Tuesday morning
and increased moisture, will lead to warmer low temperatures
tonight. Forecasted lows will be in the lower to middle 50s, which
was 3-5 degrees cooler than the NBM guidance. Tuesday will be
windy and warm across the area as low pressure deepens off to the
northwest of the forecast area. Mixed winds tomorrow indicate some
gust potential up to 30 MPH. Fortunately enough low level
moisture will flow into the area, keeping the area from reaching
critical fire weather criteria. With good mixing, temps will reach
into upper 80s to around 90 tomorrow. This is slightly cooler
than the last couple of days and reflects the slightly increased
relative humidity across the area. By early Tuesday evening, a
surface trough will begin to track east into eastern Colorado. The
latest CAM`s do initiate some weak and ragged convection across
SW Nebraska and NW Kansas after 00z Wednesday with no convective
signatures before that time. That being said, have delayed the
onset of isolated pops in the southwestern forecast area until 00z
Wednesday. Overnight weak mid level lift will lift north into
central and north central Nebraska. As this lift transitions
northeast, it will encounter slightly more favorable moisture for
showers and weak thunderstorms. Given the diurnal timing of this
lift overnight, not expecting significant coverage of showers and
storms. That being said, have limited pops to the 20 to 30 percent
range overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

On Wednesday, a strong cold front will enter far northwestern
Nebraska around daybreak, traversing the western half of the
forecast area by midday. This feature will then approach central
and eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.
As the front encounters decent low level moisture along and east
of highway 83, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
initiate midday along this route and slowly track east with the
front into Wednesday night. In advance of the front, model PWAT`s
reach 1-1.5 inches Wednesday afternoon with surface dew points
well into the mid and upper 50s. With mid level flow parallel to
the front, we could see some training issues and heavy rain
potential in the eastern forecast area Wednesday evening. Given
this area has been very dry over the past 6 months, ie. Garfield,
Wheeler, Holt and Boyd counties, am not thinking there will be
much of a flash flood threat ATTM. Precipitation chances will
continue into Friday as a persistent mid level trough of low
pressure remains west of the area. Beyond Friday, there are some
indications in the mid range models of a persistent area of low
pressure aloft over the northern plains into the weekend and early
next week. If this were to verify, increased precipitation
chances would result. Stay tuned on that one.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 27 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Clouds
are expected to be at or above 20k feet AGL with winds remaining
below 20 knots.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion