689
FXUS63 KLBF 251650
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1150 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers are expected to continue today, lasting through
Monday night across most of the region.
- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and warmer temperatures
Tuesday through the end of the week.
- Low to moderate confidence in increasing precipitation potential
by the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
An upper level low is observed across the Desert Southwest, with a
plume of Pacific moisture tracking along the Front Range. With this
upper level low, an upper level speed maximum can be seen across
eastern portions of New Mexico and Colorado, providing plenty of
divergence aloft across the region. As the moisture continues to
stream into the region, aided by the favorable ascent in the
environment, rain showers are expected to persist through the
overnight hours.
Throughout the day, showers and potentially a few embedded
thunderstorms will continue to stream across the region from the
southwest. With showers expected to be more scattered in nature,
this could lead to additional "on and off" showers across the
region, especially in the morning to early afternoon hours. By late
afternoon, a more organized push of rain showers is expected, which
should bring some heavier rainfall as showers track across the
region. Heavier rainfall totals continue to favor the eastern
portions of the region, though latest guidance suggests at least a
wetting precipitation across most of the region today and this
evening.
Overnight, the upper level low is expected to lift slightly to the
north, keeping favorable upper level flow across the region. In
fact, fairly widespread showers are expected across the entire
region tonight into Monday morning, with potential for some heavier
rainfall at times, as the Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. Guidance continues to suggest wetting rainfall
region wide, but again, heavier totals favor areas mainly east of
Highway 83. This shows up quite well in latest ensemble guidance,
particularly the GEFS solution. However, totals through Monday
afternoon are generally expected to bring at least a quarter of an
inch across the region, with best odds to exceed one inch of total
rainfall along and east of Highway 83. However, cannot completely
rule out that some locations west of Highway 83 may see totals
nearing and possibly exceeding one inch, especially if embedded
thunderstorm activity occurs. Though there is a slight chance for a
few rumbles of thunder, given the current environment, would not
anticipate any severe weather if any thunderstorms would develop.
Something to keep a close eye on, especially overnight into early
Monday morning, will be the potential for a few snowflakes to mix in
to the precipitation, especially areas across northwest Nebraska.
Overnight lows along Pine Ridge are expected to drop near, and in
some locations, just below the freezing mark. As rain showers are
expected to persist overnight, there could be sufficient overlap
with the colder temperatures, particularly subfreezing temperatures
aloft, that could allow for some brief snow development. However,
given the warm soil temperatures, do not anticipate that any snow
that may develop will be able to accumulate. However, something to
keep an eye on, as we continue to track into late October.
The upper level low continues lifting to the north throughout the
day on Monday, with the last push of rain showers across the region.
As the low is expected to lift slightly north-northeast, still
expect best chances for precipitation will favor the eastern zones,
mainly east of HIghway 83. Showers are expected to gradually
diminish throughout the day, eventually coming to s stop by Monday
evening. As this low lifts out of the region, expect clearing skies,
especially across southwest and western Nebraska. This will help
temperatures cool off on Monday night, with widespread lows expected
to drop below freezing across the region. The exception will be for
areas across north central Nebraska, where stratus may linger,
keeping lows just above the freezing mark. While this is not unusual
for late October (we typically see lows in the low 30s to upper
20s), it is at least something to keep in mind for the Tuesday
morning commute.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Quieter weather will move in on Tuesday, although some additional
low end (less than 25 percent) PoPs are then possible on Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a weak trough pushes through the region. At
this point, not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals as any
shower development will remain isolated in nature and mainly
confined to areas east of US-183. While some embedded thunderstorms
may also be possible with this Tuesday activity, current trends
continue to keep the majority of the precipitation just to the east
across eastern Nebraska where the best instability will be located.
Therefore, not anticipating any severe storms with this system.
Drier conditions return mid-week as weak upper level ridging and
surface high pressure builds into the region. A return to scattered
showers is expected by late week and into the first half of next
weekend, but confidence remains too low in development, timing, and
strength to put much more than a mention in the forecast at this
time.
As upper level ridging builds back into the region on Tuesday, warm
air advection in combination with decreasing clouds will allow for
warmer temperatures to return through the end of the week.
Temperatures will steadily rise back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday
through Friday. Some locations along and south of the I-80 corridor
could even rise back into the 70s towards the end of the week.
Slightly cooler temperatures (but still in the low to mid 60s)
return on Saturday as precipitation chances return to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Expect IFR ceilings at both terminals over the next 24 hours
with LIFR conditions expected at the KLBF terminal through 16z
Monday and after 03z Monday for the KVTN terminal. Periods of
rain showers will impact both terminals over the next 24 hours.
Visibilities may fall off to 1 to 3 miles at the KVTN terminal
overnight tonight into Monday morning. At the KLBF terminal,
visibilities as low as 5SM are anticipated. Winds will be from
the northeast or east at around 10 KTS over the next 24 hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion