189
FXUS63 KLBF 251121
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
621 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate confidence continued showers Saturday with some
  isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening.

- Low to moderate confidence more organized, severe
  thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening.

- High confidence in meaningful rainfall (over a half inch)
  Sunday night and into Monday.

- After a brief lull in precipitation Monday evening, additional
  rain and snow is possible across the area Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward
throughout the next few hours. Overall, the showers and embedded
thunderstorms will remain more stratiform in nature with little
expected as far as stronger or severe storms. The main threat with
these lingering showers will be lightning which many cause
additional fire concerns across the region as minimal QPF (less than
0.10 in.) is expected.

Isolated light rain will continue into the day on Saturday, falling
mainly across northern Nebraska. Rainfall totals during the day on
Saturday will remain less than a tenth of an inch for most locations
and only up to 0.20 where the heaviest rain will fall in the north.
Cold air advection into the region combined with cloudy and rainy
conditions will keep temperatures on the cooler side on Saturday.
Highs will range from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 50s south
of I-80. Isolated to scattered precipitation continues into tonight,
however the majority of convection should remain just to the south
and east of north central Nebraska. Even if an embedded thunderstorm
does develop, not expecting it to become severe as limited
instability will exist in an environment that has been worked over
the past few days. Temperatures drop into the upper 20s in the Pine
Ridge tonight which may allow some snow may return to the northwest
region as temperatures drop to near and below freezing. Little to no
accumulations are expected as temperatures only briefly fall below
freezing and snow lands on already wet surfaces making accumulations
difficult.

Heading into Sunday, widespread showers are expected throughout much
of the day. Some of these showers will develop in an environment
more favorable for more organized convection, with a low to moderate
potential of some severe storms. The majority of the instability to
support severe storms is expected to remain to the south across
Kansas. However, some decent support will still push into portions
of south and north central Nebraska. While not expecting widespread
severe storms, some storms could become severe especially Sunday
evening. Best potential for any severe storms will generally be
southeast of a Imperial to North Platte to O`Neill line, but some
stronger storms could develop as far north as the central Sandhills
and into the Valentine area. Despite a favorable environment, there
is still some uncertainty regarding development, timing, and
strength of these storms. Some of the latest guidance is indicating
much of Sunday morning and afternoon being dry and precipitation not
developing until late afternoon. In this case, some clearing of
skies will even be possible, which may help to support diurnal
heating and instability in the afternoon resulting in a greater
potential for severe storms later Sunday evening. Will continue to
monitor the severe potential over the next few days.

Regardless if severe convection or not can develop, one thing that
is fairly certain is the precipitation amounts Sunday evening and
into the night. Despite some of the latest guidance decreasing QPF
slightly, confidence remains high that many locations will see at
least a half inch of QPF, with some locations across extreme north
central Nebraska seeing up to an inch or greater. The latest
probabilities support this as the probability of seeing over a half
inch is 80 percent or higher across the entire forecast area, and
the probability of seeing over 1 inch is over 50 percent for areas
mainly east of US-83. If this comes to fruition, this will be a
welcome relief for much of the region that has been dealing with
little to no precipitation for the last few weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Precipitation begins to slowly exit off to the east Monday morning,
ending from west to east by late Monday afternoon. A brief lull in
precipitation is then expected Monday evening, as shortwave ridging
quickly moves across the area aloft. By Monday night, southwest flow
returns aloft, as another upper trough begins to push east across
the Rockies. As this trough begins to emerge into the Plains by
Tuesday morning, scattered precipitation begins to spread from west
to east into western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Guidance suggests a
threat for mixed p-types at least initially, as temperatures Tuesday
morning fall into the middle 30s. Any precipitation then looks to
become rain by Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures slowly climb into
the 40s to 50s. Confidence in amounts remains somewhat uncertain,
though NBM probabilities of >0.25" peak at ~20-30% for areas near
and west of HWY 83. Any wintry precipitation is expected to be of
little to no impact, with marginal thermos and temperatures expected
to rise into the afternoon hours.

Northwest flow establishes aloft as we head into midweek, and the
pattern looks to remain active locally. At least a couple shortwaves
are expected to traverse the northwesterly flow aloft, and bring at
least scattered precipitation chances nearly each day Wednesday
through Friday. This will also keep temperatures slightly below
average for middle to late week, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Confidence remains low in any precipitation late week for now,
though it appears at least additional light accumulations will be
possible across portions of western and southwest Nebraska.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low stratus will continue to expand across southwest and central
Nebraska this morning, with widespread IFR/locally LIFR CIGs
then expected for all terminal into tomorrow morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also expected this morning and
afternoon, primarily east of Highway 83. These showers/storms
will lead to brief periods of MVFR visibilities.

Winds remain northeasterly through this afternoon, with gusts of
20 to 25kts for all terminals. Winds then weaken tonight,
remaining northeasterly at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion