888
FXUS63 KLBF 181943
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
243 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High confidence in hot, above normal temperatures continuing
through Monday with highs across north central approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees.
- High confidence in dry or mostly dry conditions through the
weekend.
-Temperatures cool back to near seasonal levels Tuesday behind a
backdoor cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower
90s.
-Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday
into Thursday, with the highest chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Little changes have been made to the going forecast for the short
term. Extreme heat across the region will remain the main concern as
upper level ridging and strong surface high pressure remains over
the central US. Warm air advection will continue to push a warmer
airmass through early week. The warmest air arrives on Sunday and
Monday where 850mb temperatures in the 30 to 35 C range will result
in surface highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. These very warm
temperatures will create heat indicies in the 100 to 105 range,
especially on Monday where these heat indicies become widespread
throughout the region. The latest probabilities remain mostly
unchanged from previous forecasts with the potential of hitting 100
degrees or higher being near 75 to 80 percent probability across
northern and portions of north central Nebraska (generally along and
north of US-20) on Sunday. On Monday, much of north central and
western Nebraska has at least a 70 percent probability of hitting
100 degrees or higher, with some isolated areas across the Sandhills
and southwest Nebraska seeing over a 90 percent probability. In
addition, on Monday the latest EFI is still relatively high (0.7 to
0.8), with a fairly low SoT. Therefore confidence continues to
remain high that there may be some very hot, unseasonable
temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures
on Monday. Due to increasing confidence in very hot temperatures and
heat indicies, have increased highs slightly on Monday with heat
advisories remaining in place and unchanged across the region.
There are some concerns, though, with the high temperatures on
Monday. While the probabilities seem to suggest higher temperatures,
and confidence is indeed high, the latest model trends have been
bringing a front, and colder temperatures behind it, through early
in the day, which may limit some of the extremely high temperatures,
especially across the north. We will need to closely monitor this
front as it begins to track through central Nebraska as it may allow
heat advisories to be cancelled early if temperatures don`t rise as
high as expected.
Regarding precipitation, it will be a mostly dry forecast through
Monday night. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are still
expected late this afternoon and into early evening, although
confidence remains relatively low on development and locations of
impact. However, enough of the hi-res models still suggest some
isolated storms and therefore, have kept a mention of them in the
forecast for portions of north central and into the Sandhills. If
storms can develop later today, they are expected to be short-lived,
dissipating by 7pm CT. There is also some low precip chances on
Monday evening with the frontal passage. With limited moisture, any
thunderstorms that can develop will be mainly confined to the higher
terrain of the Panhandle. At this time, not expecting severe
thunderstorms, but a few stronger storms could be possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
Tuesday, an upper-level trough will move into the northeastern
United States, allowing a backdoor cold front to push south through
the region as modest mid-level cold air advection develops. This
front will provide some relief from the recent heat, with highs
returning to near-seasonal levels in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Precipitation chances will remain low Tuesday as the center of the
upper-level ridge remains over the region while the stronger upper-
level flow stays to the northeast. Tuesday night will remain quite
mild, with lows in the upper 60s across north-central Nebraska and
the lower to middle 70s farther south.
Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will begin shifting southward,
allowing stronger upper-level flow to return across the central
Plains. Current model guidance indicates a weak shortwave
disturbance moving into the area by late Wednesday evening. This
disturbance may provide sufficient lift, combined with increasing
mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis, to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms. At this time, model guidance does not
indicate widespread wetting rainfall, though forecast trends will
continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. High
temperatures will be somewhat cooler, ranging from the mid 80s
across north-central Nebraska to the upper 80s and lower 90s across
western and southwest Nebraska.
Thursday into next weekend, additional weak disturbances may slide
southeast along the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge as
it settles across the southern Plains. This could provide additional
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though confidence in
the timing and coverage of precipitation remains low at this range.
By late next week into next weekend, the ridge is expected to expand
and strengthen once again, favoring a return to hotter and drier
conditions. Highs Thursday are forecast to remain in the mid 80s to
lower 90s before warming back into the lower to middle 90s Friday
and Saturday as the ridge builds northward across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24
hours. Currently, some leftover stratus is lingering across
north-central Nebraska, including the KVTN terminal, though this
cloud cover is already beginning to dissipate and should
continue to do so over the next couple of hours. Southerly winds
of 10 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots, will continue
through this afternoon and evening. A few isolated thunderstorms
may develop this afternoon into the early evening. Coverage is
expected to remain very limited, and any storms that do develop
should dissipate around sunset without impacting either
terminal. Overnight into Sunday morning, winds will weaken to 5
to 10 knots while remaining generally out of the south to
southeast. Low-level cloud cover may redevelop Sunday morning
across central and north-central Nebraska, though confidence in
any MVFR ceilings remains low at this time.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NEZ004.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Sunday to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ005>010-026>029-094.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion