335
FXUS63 KLBF 012009
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
309 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances increase tonight with rain ending Thursday
  morning.

- Another potential for rain, especially across
  northern/northwest Nebraska Friday into Friday night.

- Windy conditions are expected Saturday behind Friday`s system.

- A milder patter (near normal temperatures are expected as we
  head into

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A shortwave is progressing through the Intermountain West this
afternoon. Mid-level warm air advection is in the process of
increasing across the Central Plains downstream of this wave.
Scattered showers have occurred through the morning into early this
afternoon within this warm air regime. This activity should increase
late this afternoon into the evening as large scale lift overspreads
the area. The system will quickly move eastward and sharpen and take
on a negative tilt as it emerges into the Plains this evening. Of
note is some limited mid-level instability across southwest through
central Nebraska. Will maintain the threat for a slight chance for
thunderstorms along with the increasing chances for rainfall.
Speaking of rainfall, operational models (ECMWF/GFS) continue in
agreement that a closed circulation at H7/H5 should track eastward
near the NE/KS border to eastern Nebraska by Thursday morning. A
deformation axis of precipitation will increase to the north of this
track. Southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills, as well as
central/north central Nebraska should be located within the axis.
The probability for at least a quarter of an inch is high, with some
areas likely seeing amounts over 3/4 of an inch by the time the
precipitation ends late Thursday morning.

As far as snow potential, thermal profiles are looking warmer and
snowfall accumulations less. Ensemble and operational models
continue to trend down, and official amounts are now less than 1/2"
and would be near the NE/SD border.

A potent closed low is forecast to track from the northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains Friday into Friday night. Mid-level warm
air advection will be quite strong during this time across northwest
Nebraska. Shower development is likely Thursday night through Friday
as this occurs. Sounding profiles again look warm, and this should
mostly be a rain event.

Windy conditions are expected Saturday in the wake of the system.
Some pretty decent northwest gusts, greater than 40 mph, are likely
across western Nebraska where boundary layer mixing will be better
due a decrease in cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Mainly dry conditions look to return as we head into Sunday into the
middle of next week. West to northwest flow aloft looks to be the
dominate pattern. Humidity will be quite low across southwest
Nebraska Sunday, but winds will be light. Some elevated concerns
could return by Tuesday as strong south to southeast winds develop.
Although humidity does not appear to be that low and temperatures
not overly warm. All in all does not appear to be any major fire
weather concerns at this time as we head into next week.
Temperatures for the most part look to average near normal, with
highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

IFR conditions will develop tonight and last through Thursday
morning as storm system crosses the area. Areas of rain will
also occur tonight through sunrise Tuesday morning. Southeast
winds this afternoon will become north overnight tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler/Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion