419
FXUS63 KLBF 312338
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
638 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this evening into
  the overnight hours across portions of southwest into central
  Nebraska. A few thunderstorms may be strong, with isolated
  damaging winds the main concern.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday morning, with a few
  strong to severe thunderstorms possible during the afternoon
  and evening hours, with large hail and damaging winds a
  concern.

- Wednesday into the Labor Day weekend, a warmer, drier pattern
  settles over region. Temperatures are likely to range from 10
  to 15 degrees above normal, with limited precipitation chances
  expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Tonight...a frontal boundary will be located across far northwest
Kansas into south central Nebraska this evening, lifting slowly
northward overnight. increasing mid level moisture and MUCAPEs in
the lowest 3km will increase to 1000-2000 J/kg north of the front
across southwest and central Nebraska. The latest CAMs are in fair
agreement developing scattered thunderstorms across this area. Areas
south of a line from Oshkosh through Bartlett could see a few strong
storms, with isolated damaging winds the main threat overnight. POPs
have increased to 30 to 60 percent. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible, as the HREF probability of exceeding 0.25 inch is from 30
to 40 percent across Chase, Hayes, and Frontier County.

Tuesday...scattered showers and general thunderstorms are expected
during the morning, mainly across north central Nebraska. Surface
low pressure will deepen during the afternoon near the frontal
boundary located across northwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska.
Cloud cover and precipitation will limit highs to the lower 80s
north central, while southwest into central Nebraska should mange to
reach the upper 80s. Increasing low-level lift north of the frontal
boundary should allow for additional thunderstorm development during
the afternoon into the evening hours from southwest through
northeast Nebraska. Moderate instability as high as 3000 J/kg near
and north of the front and deep layer shear to 40-50kts will support
strong to severe storms possible. SPC is forecasting a broad
Marginal Risk area across most of western and north central
Nebraska, excluding the eastern panhandle and far southwest.
Large hail and damaging winds are possible. The activity should
move east of the area after midnight. Lows in upper the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region Wednesday
into the Labor Day weekend. This will bring a warmer, drier pattern
to the region. Guidance remains in strong agreement on an upper
ridge center building over the region Friday and Saturday. This will
bring much above average temperatures by Friday and Saturday into
the mid and upper 90s. NBM 90th percentile high temperatures for
Saturday through Monday are in the upper 90s to around 100. This is
possible, given the strength of the upper ridge nearing 5970 meters
by Sunday and Monday, shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows a weaker
upper ridge. As a result, forecast highs are currently in the upper
80s to lower 90s by Sunday and Monday, given an increasing
spread in the strength of the upper ridge.

The stronger upper level ridging will also keep precipitation
chances fairly limited Wednesday through the Labor Day weekend.
Latest NBM guidance does still keep some slight chance PoPs,
generally less than 20 percent, Wednesday night, and again during
the evening and overnight Friday through Sunday. However, based on
ensemble guidance, precipitation would be light. Latest ensemble
guidance continues to show a less than 20 percent chance of
precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch Wednesday night and
again into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Late tonight, scattered thunderstorms should approach southwest
Nebraska from the southwest. Though this activity may bring with
it some gusty/erratic winds, prevailing conditions are largely
expected to remain at least low-end VFR. This is supported by
recent HREF output which paints < 10% for either low CIGs or
visibility. Activity should progress north and east with impacts
then expected to include VTN with a 3-4 hour delay from onset at
LBF. Similarly low-end VFR conditions appear likely.
Thunderstorms should depart both terminals during the morning
hours with dry conditions for the remainder of the period.
Afternoon thunderstorm development looks increasingly probable
with low-confidence in precise location so trends will need to
be monitored for potential impacts at either TAF site.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion