362
FXUS63 KLBF 191713
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1113 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold start this morning, with wind chills ranging from near
  zero across southwest Nebraska to 15 below in north central
  Nebraska.

- A mostly dry forecast through the end of the week. Dry and
  windy conditions may lead to elevated fire weather concerns
  Tuesday.

- Highly variable highs temperatures this week, largely driven
  by an active upper level pattern. Chances of snow showers and
  cooler temperatures arrive by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

High pressure is observed over the northern Plains, allowing a blast
of cold air to track across the region. As of 3 AM, already
observing temperatures in the low single digits across the Sandhills
and northern Nebraska, with wind chills dropping 10 to 15 degrees
below zero. These frigid temperatures are expected to last through
mid to late morning, before a gradual warm up this afternoon. Highs
range from the low 40s across southwest Nebraska to the mid 20s
across north central Nebraska this afternoon. Westerly winds this
morning will take a subtle shift to northwesterly by the evening,
with winds this afternoon around 10 to 20 mph. Peak afternoon gusts
across the Panhandle may reach up to 30 mph, however, higher
humidity today should limit fire weather concerns.

As for Tuesday, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
return across portions of the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. A
warm front tracking through the region brings above seasonal
temperatures across portions of western and southwestern Nebraska,
with highs breaking into the low 50s. With these warmer
temperatures, afternoon humidity values drop around 15 to 20
percent. Westerly to northwesterly winds gust up to around 30 to 35
mph across portions of western Nebraska.

Also of note for Tuesday will be a notable temperature gradient
across the region. While portions of western and southwestern
Nebraska are experiencing highs in the 50s, portions of north
central Nebraska are expected to struggle to reach the mid 30s. This
set up is expected throughout most of the week as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The prevailing pattern this week features upper level ridging
attempting to track across the western portions of the region, and
upper level shortwaves bringing reinforcing shots of cooler air
across the northern and eastern areas. While solutions are coming
into better agreement, highly variable and fluctuating temperatures
are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Will continue to track where
the sharp temperature gradients set up, as this does lower
confidence in daily high temperatures, depending where this gradient
sets up. However, there is agreement in this being a dry pattern,
with little to no precipitation expected region wide.

By late week, there is better consistency in the models on the
timing of an upper level shortwave and arctic front tracking across
the region. This will bring much cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday across the region. In fact, this could introduce another
blast of subzero wind chills both Friday and Saturday morning,
reaching at least 10 below across the region. Again, will need to
monitor this forecast trend, as timing of the front is critical to
some of these impacts. This system also introduces the next chances
for snow showers across the region. However, there is still some
disparity in ensemble guidance on whether or not this brings an inch
or greater of snowfall. For now, the more optimistic solutions only
highlight a 20 to 30 percent chance of one inch of snowfall, with
more pessimistic solutions keeping this scenario under a 10
percent chance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through 18Z Tuesday. This afternoon, gusty
northwest winds are expected across the western Sandhills, with
peak gusts up to 25 knots near the KLBF and KVTN terminals and
up to 30 knots across the Panhandle. After sunset, northwest
winds quickly become light out of the northwest, before
becoming light and variable mid evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion