651
FXUS63 KLBF 091128
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday
  afternoon and evening, favoring the Panhandle through
  southwest Nebraska, with an isolated strong to briefly severe
  thunderstorm possible.

- Following a warmer day on Saturday for areas south of Highway
  2, temperatures fall to seasonable levels for Sunday with dry
  conditions.

- Well above average temperatures are expected next week. Highs
  in the 80s are expected, with potential to break into the 90s
  Monday and Thursday.

- The combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions keep at
  least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns next
  week. Monday and Wednesday bring the greatest risk for near
  critical to critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Early this morning, increasing cloudiness was crossing central
Wyoming and extending into western Nebraska. This was occurring as a
mid-level disturbance was diving south and east from western
Montana. Weak fgen will develop as an h7 wave moves off the higher
terrain and into southwest Nebraska. Have added Slight Chance (<
25%) PoPs to account for this south of Highway 92 corridor. Rainfall
should be fairly limited due to ample low-level dry air. Some steep
mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could support a rumble of
thunder or two but thought is this will likely be the exception and
not the rule.

Saturday/Saturday night...a fairly active day of weather is expected
across western and central Nebraska. As the aforemention h5 trough
settles into western Nebraska, weak low pressure will develop over
the northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas
intersection. Northerly flow will strengthen, drawing a cool front
south through the area. By midday, this boundary should be near the
I-80 corridor with moderate cold air advection (CAA) to the north
but warmer temperatures, aided by compressional warming, to the
south. This sets up a reasonable temperature gradient across the
area with lower 80s in the south and only upper 60s to the north.
Forcing will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms along the I-
25 corridor but mid-level steering flow will support a northwest to
southeast track of all activity. With a further south focus for
development and the expected track, this has led to a southward
shift of forecast PoPs with the highest values, nearing 50%, for
areas south of an Oshkosh to Wallace line and a fairly quick
decrease further north and east as drier air stymies any potential.
SPC introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) southwest of a Sidney
to Palisade line. As the area resides on the southern periphery of
strong mid-level flow, deep layer shear across the area will be
strong. That said, the area will be northeast of the greatest EML
and so instability will be the limiting factor. Various guidance
suggests MLCAPE of up to 500 j/kg with only slightly more impressive
MUCAPE values. This should support isolated strong updrafts capable
of 1" hail and or 50-60 mph wind gusts. Any precipitation threat
should end by early Sunday morning as the trough axis clears and
heights begin to build. Temperatures will fall to the upper 30s to
lower 40s Saturday night.

Sunday/Sunday Night...quieter weather arrives for the end of the
weekend. Upper-level ridging will develop and become established
across the Desert Southwest through the day. This will result in
steadily building heights across the Central and Southern Plains.
With the increasing influence of high pressure aloft, temperatures
off the surface will climb as well with h85 values climbing back
into the middle to upper teens. High pressure will keep winds on the
lighter side and even with the mild temperatures and dry air, will
limit overall fire weather concerns. Temperatures will again settle
to around seasonable values Sunday night with lows in the lower
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday, an upper level ridge is expected to in place over western
Nebraska, with an upper level shortwave tracking across northern
North Dakota. Ahead of the upper level shortwave, an intensifying
surface low is expected to track across South Dakota, setting up
gusty southwesterly winds across western Nebraska. Sustained
southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected, with gusts up to
35 mph throughout the afternoon. This is also expected to bring a
warm front and associated warm air advection across the region.
Current guidance suggests anomalous 850 mb temperatures reaching
around 25 degC. With these warm temperatures aloft, expecting very
warm afternoon temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s across most of the region. While these temperatures exceed the
90th percentile of local climatology, they should still remain below
record high temperatures, which are in the mid to upper 90s. With
these very warm temperatures, expect lower relative humidity values
throughout the afternoon. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF solutions
are coming into better agreement on afternoon dewpoints in the mid
40s across eastern portions of the region, and mid 30s across
western portions, bringing higher confidence in low humidity across
western Nebraska. In general, areas along and west of Highway 83 are
expected to see afternoon humidity drop to 15 percent or less, with
humidity of 20 to 25 percent east of Highway 83. Given the
combination of very warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and
gusty southwesterly winds, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected Monday afternoon, with highest confidence
for areas along and west of Highway 83.

As the surface low tracks east, a cold front will clip through the
region Monday night, keeping gusty winds overnight. A slight cool
off is expected Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
However, even these "cooler" temperatures remain above seasonal for
this time of year, remaining around the 90th percentile compared to
local climatology. Gusty northerly winds are expected across the
region, with strongest gusts generally along and east of Highway 83.
Expecting afternoon humidity values to be generally at or below 20
percent across most of the region, with "higher end" values around
25 percent. With this set up, expecting at least elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions across most of the region, with
highest potential to reach critical values east of Highway 83. A
very similar pattern is expected on Wednesday, with continued warm,
dry, and windy conditions. However, stronger wind gusts are expected
on Wednesday, particularly across western Nebraska, with gusts up to
40 mph possible. Again expecting widespread elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions across most of the region, with the
highest risk for critical conditions for areas west of Highway 83.

By late week, temperatures are expected to remain well above
average, with highs remaining in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Will be
continuing to keep an eye on forecast trends, as guidance suggests a
plume of Gulf moisture will possibly arrive by late week, which may
trend relative humidity values up slightly. As the forecast stands,
humidity is expected to drop around 20 percent each day, with gusty
winds possible. If this drier solution is realized, then fire
weather concerns are expected to remain through the weekend.
However, the the more moist solution is realized, humidity may
remain above critical thresholds, reducing the concern. If some of
the higher dewpoints do work into the region, may see an uptick in
precipitation chances, which remain relatively low with the current
forecast. With some uncertainty remaining in the forecast for the
end of the week, will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends, as
the amount of available moisture will largely determine any weather
impacts late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Winds remain light out of the
west this morning, but a passing cold front will bring a shift to
northerly winds which increase throughout the morning. By the
afternoon, expecting gusty northerly winds across most of the
region, with gusts lasting into the evening. As a low level
inversion develops this evening, winds begin to decrease back to
light and variable. This afternoon and evening, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western and
southwestern Nebraska. These may introduce brief MVFR ceilings, and
gusty, erratic winds. However, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to remain mostly south of area terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion