FXUS63 KLBF 021810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
110 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a closed low
over southern New England with a trough of low pressure extending
south into the western Atlantic. Further west, high pressure was
located over Lake Michigan. A ridge extended northwest of this
feature into northern Manitoba. West of this feature, a closed low
was located over western Alberta with a trough extending south into
the Pacific NW states. Across the central CONUS, weak southwesterly
flow was noted and extended from the Four Corners into the Dakotas
and western Nebraska. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
extended from southeastern Montana, south into eastern Colorado. Low
pressure was noted across southeastern Colorado with a frontal
boundary extending east into southern Kansas and the Arkansas
Ozarks. Overnight, skies were mostly clear across western and north
central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 AM CDT, ranged from 59 at
Broken Bow to 69 at Gordon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Low level moisture will
continue to advect into the forecast area this morning thanks to
easterly and southeasterly winds. Will continue to monitor cloud
development across northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska for
inclusion in this morning`s forecast. Based on the latest NAM12
soln, the best potential for low level cloud development will be
across the far southwestern forecast area. ATTM, this should remain
just off to the southwest of North Platte. Hot and humid conditions
will develop by afternoon with readings in the lower 90s. By late
afternoon the threat for thunderstorms will increase in the far
western forecast area as storms develop INVOF a surface boundary
draped across the western panhandle, eastern Wyoming and NE
Colorado. Forecast SB capes in the NAM this afternoon reach 5000J/KG
along and west of a line from North Platte to Rushville. With little
to no cap noted late this afternoon, thunderstorm development is a
good possibility along the surface boundary. Deep layer shear is on
the order of 25 to 30 KTS this afternoon/evening, so the severe
threat appears meager at best. However, very steep mid level lapse
rates (H5-H7) are noted in the western third of the forecast area-
favoring a large hail threat. By evening, activity will transition
east into central and eastern Nebraska overnight into Friday
morning, with the severe threat ending by mid evening. On Friday,
precipitation chances will linger in the east in the morning with
dry conditions expected for the afternoon in most locations. There
will be an increased threat for thunderstorms late Friday afternoon
in the west. Deep layer shear is very weak tomorrow afternoon, so
there is some doubt as to how far convection can reach central and
eastern Nebraska Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through the
middle of next week. High pressure and ridging aloft will remain
the dominant weather feature across the central and southern
plains. This will focus the brunt of thunderstorm activity off to
the west and north of the forecast area. There will be some minor
chances for thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening
hours as weak forcing lifts along the western and northern
periphery of the ridge axis. ATTM, the NBM has low pops primarily
during the late afternoon and evening hours and this seems
plausible given the flow pattern. Temperatures will remain above
normal through midweek and may trend warmer late next week into
next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

The main aviation concern will be the chance of thunderstorms across
much of western and north central Nebraska. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop across northwest Colorado and the western
Panhandle by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will then move eastward
throughout the evening. The best timing for thunderstorms to impact
both terminals will be between 00Z and 06Z. Large hail and erratic
strong winds will be possible in these thunderstorms. Quiet weather
will then return through Friday morning.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion