FXUS63 KLBF 072348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
548 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

The primary concern for the short term revolves around elevated fire
weather conditions Monday. See the fire weather section below for
specific details regarding this threat.

Surface winds tonight will veer to the east and southeast, and
this should help to keep lows above freezing in the mid 30s. A
warm thermal ridge at 850mb will be in place Monday morning,
which will build eastward and mix down to the surface by
afternoon. A south southeast wind will increase to 15 to 30 mph
by afternoon with warm afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
Nudged toward the blended model 50th percentile for highs, as
temperatures will range near 25 to 30 degrees above normal.

Very warm 850mb temperatures up to 16C will extend over most of
the Sandhills Monday night with a light south wind becoming
southwest. Expecting a pretty strong inversion however, for lows
in the low to mid 30s west, to near 45 far eastern areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Another very warm day in store Tuesday, and again nudged toward
the blended model 50th percentile for highs. Expecting upper 70s
much of the southeastern areas, which is around 30 degrees above
normal. A cold front moves in during the afternoon, with mid to
upper 60s far northwest Sandhills. By early Tuesday evening, weak
lift along the cold front will meet better moisture and an
instability gradient from portions of Garfield, southeast Holt
and Wheeler County. This looks sufficient to introduce a slight
chance for a few showers or thunderstorms.

A change in the weather pattern begins Tuesday night and persist
through the end of the forecast period next Sunday.

Southwest flow aloft Tuesday night with a disturbance in Wyoming
to track northeastward across South Dakota and northern NE on
Wednesday. The forecast remains the same Tuesday night with 30 to
50 POPs across the northwest Sandhills, Colder temperatures aloft
in that location will be favorable for light snow after midnight,
though any accumulations are expected to only be a tent or two in
northern Sheridan and northwest Cherry County. Chance POPS
continue across northern Nebraska Wednesday morning, with light
snow accumulations of a few tenths of an inch across Sheridan and
northwest Cherry County during the morning. The cold front will
push into eastern Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, bring cooler highs
in the 40s and 50s to western NE. Still a slight chance for rain
or snow across the southern half of the area Wednesday night
behind the front.

Medium range models differ on the evolution of a closed low moving
into the Four Corners Region Thursday night. The 12Z GFS remains
faster than the 12Z ECMWF and moves a closed low into southwest
KS late Friday night, then across KS into nrn MO Saturday into
Saturday night. The operational ECMWF is further south about 30
hours slower and doesn`t begin to affect western NE until beyond
day 7 (Sunday night). Due to model differences with position and
timing, the model blend keep a slight chance for rain or snow in
the forecast late Thursday night thorugh Sunday morning, and is
mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.

Nighttime and morning temperatures will be cold enough to support
light snow or a rain/snow mix late Thursday night into Sunday

High temperatures Thursday through Sunday will also range closer
to normal for this time of year, from the low 40s to low 50s
Thursday, upper 40s to low 50s Friday, and mid to upper 40s
Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures as well as precipitation chances will become better
resolved as models come into better agreement with the track of
the low pressure system this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

Some scattered high clouds will be possible over the next 24 hours
across western and north central Nebraska. Ceilings will be in the
20000 to 25000 FT AGL range. Winds will be variable at under 10
KTS tonight, becoming southerly Monday morning and increasing to
15 to 25 KTS during the afternoon.


Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021

On Monday, relative humidity values fall to as low as 17 to 23
percent, mainly near and west of Highway 83. A south to southeast
wind will increase to 15 to 30 mph during the afternoon to create
elevated fire weather conditions.

One more day of elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday as
humidities fall again into the 15 to 20 percent range during the
afternoon. Winds will shift from the southwest to northwest
through the afternoon, with gusts mostly 20 mph or less.




LONG TERM...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion