785
FXUS63 KLBF 141733
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly and windy conditions are expected today as highs will
  struggle to get out of the 40s.

- There is a small chance for light precipitation in far SW
  Nebraska late this afternoon and early this evening.

- Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday with readings
  in the 50s.

- Mild temperatures continue through mid-week with Wednesday
  being the warmest day of the week

- Slight precipitation chances possible on Wednesday
  afternoon/night.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a highly amplified pattern
across the CONUS. A high amplitude ridge extended from the Texas
Panhandle north into southwestern Manitoba and southeastern
Saskatchewan. This ridge then extended northeast to northern
portions of Quebec. East of the ridge, a broad trough of low
pressure was present across the eastern third of the CONUS. Within
this trough, two closed systems were noted. The first over eastern
Quebec, and the second over western Pennsylvania. Other disturbances
within this trough were noted over Indiana and northern Georgia.
West of the ridge, a broad trough of low pressure extended from just
off the coast of British Columbia, south southeast into central
California. Within this trough, closed low pressure was noted over
the coast of Washington State with another shortwave noted over
central California. In advance of the trough, another shortwave
trough was present over southeastern Arizona.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The shortwave over southeastern Arizona (mentioned above), will
track northeast into northeastern New Mexico today. At the same
time, surface high pressure, will transition across Iowa and a
surface trough of low pressure will deepen along the front
ranges of Wyoming and Colorado. With a decent pressure gradient
expected today across the area, gusty southerly winds are
expected. The latest NBM ensemble has 60 to 80% chance for wind
gusts reaching 40 MPH Saturday afternoon across the central and
western Sandhills. When this threshold is raised to 45 MPH,
there is a 40 to 60% chance of gusts reaching this threshold.
Cloud cover will increase later this morning from the south as
the shortwave lifts into eastern New Mexico. This cloud cover,
along with an entrenched cold air mass (H8 5 temps of 1-3C) will
lead to highs in the middle 40s today. Some readings may touch
50 over northern portions of the forecast area where the onset
of cloud cover will hold off until this afternoon. As was the
case yesterday, the deterministic, GFS and RRFS soln tonight
develops some very light precipitation across far SW portions of
the forecast area late this afternoon into the early evening
hours. The latest NBM, barely works in a slight chance pop for
far southern Chase County this evening. Based on the
deterministic solns, decided to extend pops further north into
the remainder of Chase and portions of Perkins County. Decided
to keep pops at around 20 percent as the QPF forecast is only a
couple of hundredths. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday
night into Sunday for most areas. Some limited clearing may
occur in the northwest Sunday afternoon as drier air and a shift
in wind direction to the west and southwest, ushers in warmer
air. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs
on Sunday will range from around 50 along and south of a line
from Ogallala to Broken Bow, with lower to middle 50s generally
north of this line.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A upper level low to the south will continue to track eastward
as a upper level ridge builds in from the west with strong
southerly winds keeping temperatures in the 50s. SFC winds will
be the strongest across northern Nebraska into north central
Nebraska Monday and Tuesday with winds around 15 to 20 mph and
gust up to 35 mph. On Wednesday a cold front will move into the
area, ahead of the front compressional heating will warm
temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s across southwest
Nebraska into north central Nebraska, making Wednesday the
warmest day of the week. There will be a slight chance of
scattered precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures cool into the low 50s for Thursday.

Attention then turns to a system moving in to end the week
Friday and Saturday. As the upper level low moves onshore into
the western CONUS Friday and moves eastward increasing
precipitation chances Friday. Will need to continue to monitor
the system as models at this time are suggesting the system
could potentially move across the Central CONUS as a fairly
strong closed low system, however as this is still pretty far
out in the forecast and the system is still well offshore, the
track and strength could still change as we approach the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low stratus persists for western and southwest Nebraska
terminals, with MVFR and IFR CIGs continuing into tomorrow
afternoon. This low stratus will expand eastward overnight,
leading to an expansion in lowered CIGs for terminals east of
HWY 83. Patchy fog is also possible for western and southwest
Nebraska terminals tomorrow morning, leading to periods of MVFR
visibilities.

Winds remain gusty from the southeast today and tonight, with
gusts of 25 to 35kts continuing for all terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion