FXUS63 KLBF 200858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
358 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

The main forecast challenges to start off the week include another
round of moisture this evening into tonight and a big swing in
temperatures with a cold front passage followed by a building ridge.

Today and tonight... A strong cold front quickly drops through the
forecast area this morning, resulting in a switch to northerly winds
and a quick uptick in speeds. As of 09z, the front was crossing the
Black Hills and encroaching on the Pine Ridge. Guidance suggests the
front to be through western and central Nebraska by 15z. A few rain
showers are possible in the far north along the front where better
surface moisture convergence occurs, but little is expected
elsewhere. The greater impact will be gusty winds. The combination
of rapidly increasing surface pressure and mechanical mixing of
stronger winds at H85-7 will result in speeds to 35 mph. Modest CAA
in the wake of the front of 3-4C at H85 should translate to highs in
the 70s for northwest Neb and lower 80s elsewhere. Stayed near the
ensemble mean of guidance for forecast max temps. Throughout the
day, a longwave trough digs into the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest. A rather stout shortwave embedded in the trough traverses
the Sandhills later this evening and tonight. The wave will greatly
increase forcing in the mid levels, while some upslope flow at H85
provides some lift in the lower levels. Soundings suggest the best
moisture to reside above H7 as surface dew points dip into the 40s
north and to near 50 south. This also corresponds to typical
nighttime elevated convection, but severe activity is not
anticipated due to limited instability.

Monday... The upper trough axis swings through the Upper Miss Valley
and the shortwave quickly exits during the morning. Most precip
should be wrapped up by 15z. The core of the cool air brushes
Nebraska with H85 temps dropping below 15C midday. This should keep
highs in the mid/upper 70s areawide, and with dew points continuing
to drop through 40s (and possibly 30s far north?), a rather
refreshing day is in store. A slight northwesterly breeze at times
will add to the springtime feel. Normal highs for this time of year
are in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

A large upper ridge dominates the synoptic pattern mid to late week
for most of the central US. The ridge is centered over the Four
Corners on Tuesday, but the axis shifts onto the High Plains for
Wednesday and Thursday as the high broadens. Guidance has trended
even warmer for highs this week, now pushing most of western
Nebraska to near 100F Wed and mid/upper 90s Thu. With the hot and
dry weather making a return, fire weather conditions are heightened.
Humidity values actually approach critical levels in the west on
Wednesday, but winds should remain below the threshold. A cool front
late Thursday into Friday brings some relief, as well as the next
chance for appreciable moisture.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Of
note, There is currently some LLWS being experienced for the
northern terminals, namely KVTN. This is only expected to last a
couple hours. Otherwise, winds are expected to shift clockwise to
be more northerly by 14Z, and persist to the end of the TAF
period. At this same time, due to a frontal passage, there will
begin some stronger sfc gusts up to 30 kts. Things should calm
down around 1/2Z or so to be sustained northerly winds under




SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion