000
FXUS63 KLBF 181734
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Ongoing rain and wintry precipitation ends from west to east
   this morning, with dry and cooler conditions this afternoon.

-  The next chance for precipitation arrives Friday morning
   into Saturday, with a threat for rain and snow primarily near
   and west of Highway 83.

-  Additional chances for precipitation continue into early and middle
   next week, with a gradual warming trend bringing highs back
   to near and above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Precipitation continues across much of the Sandhills and southwest
into central Nebraska this morning, within a zone of strong mid-
level FGEN. A myriad of precipitation types have been observed, with
rain, snow, graupel, and sleet all observed here at the office over
the past hour. In areas further north across the Sandhills, an all
snow p-type has led to some accumulation on grassy and elevated
surfaces. Any impacts to roadways has been minimal thus far, and
this is expected to continue this morning. Scattered embedded
thunderstorms have begun to wane over the last hour as well, as
MUCAPE values continue to drop of quickly across the area.

As the mid-level trough axis continues to exit the area this
morning, precipitation is expected to quickly end from west to east.
By early this afternoon, all areas are anticipated to be dry and
this will persist into tonight. Skies will slowly clear from north
to south today as well, with most areas outside of far southwest
Nebraska seeing at least partly sunny skies this afternoon.
Northerly flow and at least weak cold advection continues today, and
should keep highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

By tonight, strong high pressure will spill along the lee of the
Rockies, with cold air continuing to filter in aloft. The area
will sit on the southern periphery of the aforementioned high,
and low- level flow transitions easterly in response. The
easterly upslope flow will increase ascent, promoting
precipitation development west of HWY 61 by early Friday
morning. Initial p-type looks to be rain/snow or all snow, with
at least marginally supportive thermo profiles aloft aided by
time of day. This should transition back to rain as we head into
the late morning and early afternoon hours. Precipitation rates
look to remain light, with NBM guidance suggesting 1-hour
amounts of up to a few hundredths at best. The light rain will
gradually transition back to snow into Saturday night, as the
column cools after sunset. The slow and steady nature of snow
should provide detrimental to much in the way of accumulations,
with antecedent warm ground conditions from recent warmth. SLRs
look to remain only around 7-10:1, with only marginal
temperatures aloft overnight Saturday. Cannot rule out some
light and slushy accumulations west of HWY 61, though confidence
in this is not high. The ongoing precipitation Saturday, along
with persistent clouds should keep highs in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A brief lull in the active regime is expect on Sunday as shortwave
ridging translates through the Plains aloft. A return to southerly
flow on Sunday boosts highs back into the 60s across the area. By
Monday morning, another shortwave will drop southeast out of Canada
into the Dakotas, with an associated surface low ejecting across
northern Nebraska Monday afternoon. This drags a cold front through
the area, and scattered showers can be anticipated along the front.
Meager instability points to at least an isolated thunderstorm
chance across northern Nebraska, though no severe weather is
currently anticipated.

By midweek, upper ridging begins to amplify across the Rockies,
helping to boost highs back to near/above average across the area.
Flow aloft begins to transition southwesterly aloft on Wednesday,
and spells a return of precipitation chances locally. Confidence
wanes with respect to the timing and track of additional shortwaves,
and will need to be monitored for the return of thunderstorm chances
into the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon through the overnight
for most locations. Some light precipitation may move into far
southwest Nebraska, impacting KIML terminal. Light rain,
possibly light snow could reduce visibilities and bring a brief
period of some MVFR or lower conditions in the early morning
hours. Winds will be breezy through mid afternoon with gust up
to 25 kts from the northwest, then winds begin to diminish by
this evening, becoming light and variable.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion