532
FXUS63 KLBF 291126
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place
for western Nebraska each afternoon/evening Saturday and
Sunday with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main
concerns.
- Precipitation chances continue Monday and Tuesday. While the
severe risk is uncertain at this time, there is some potential
for stronger storms both evenings.
- Temperatures are expected to remain above average through the
end of the week. Today is expected to be the hottest day, with
highs potentially breaking 100 across southwest Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Early this morning, weakening thunderstorms continue to drift into
central Nebraska. This is residual activity from a stalled trough
across western Nebraska and has a history of producing strong wind
gusts in and around Kingsley Dam late Friday night. An increasing
low-level jet will help maintain activity as it continues its
easterly trek but strong inhibition, forcing for ascent focused well
north, and only marginal elevated instability should keep any threat
for severe activity out of the area.
Saturday/Saturday Night...modest low pressure will settle east and
drag a surface trough east through western Nebraska. This wind shift
line should stall towards mid-day across mainly central Nebraska
with west-northwesterly flow expected in its wake. Wrap around low-
level moisture from the north will settle into north central
Nebraska and boost surface dew points likely into the middle to
upper 60s. The broad downsloping flow will favor warming and drying
as low amplitude ridging passes by just to the south. The result
will be warming temperatures with daytime highs pushing the 90s for
all and low triple digits for portions of southwest Nebraska. Modest
height falls will overspread the area later in the day as deeper
troughing moves through the Pacific Northwest. A lead shortwave will
approach late in the day and bring increasing rain and thunderstorm
chances with it. Instability will be modest at best but sufficient
deep layer shear should support at least some storm organization and
a strong to severe threat. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) generally west of a North Platte to
Ainsworth line. Main concerns will primarily be damaging wind gusts
as storm mergers should lead to upscale growth and a decreasing hail
threat with time. PoPs largely relied on HREF output with some
nudges to NAM12 solution. This paints upwards of "Chance" categories
(< 40%) with the highest values over the western Sandhills and
generally mid-afternoon through the early morning on Sunday.
Lingering precipitation and cloud debris with an increasing low-
level jet in our east will keep things mild with lows near 70F but
middle to lower 60s further west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
The upper level high shifts over the Southern Plains on Sunday,
bringing slight ridging across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, an
upper level low tracks across southern British Columbia and southern
Alberta, tracking a trough across the Intermountain West. As this
pattern evolves, expecting a jet max to develop across portions of
Wyoming and possibly into South Dakota. As this occurs, do expect
some stronger winds aloft across most of western and north central
Nebraska, with forecast winds speeds at 500 mb around 40 to 45
knots, bringing some deep layer shear across the region. However,
the overnight convection from Saturday night and subsequent passing
of the surface boundary may limit the return of moisture across
portions of western Nebraska, specifically areas west of Highway 83,
where dewpoints may only rebound into the upper 50s. Highs are still
expected to remain quite warm on Sunday as well, with highs climbing
into the 90s across most of the region. Unsurprisingly, this leads
to a fairly dry lower layer of the environment, and forecast
soundings are strongly indicating this to continue through the
afternoon and evening. With this in mind, if showers and
thunderstorms are able to develop late Sunday afternoon into the
evening, expecting these will mostly be high based storms, offering
little, if any rain. Also, given relatively sparse amounts of
instability aloft, not expecting a strong severe threat. However,
given the strong mixing and potential for inverted-V soundings to
become a reality, still cannot completely rule out an isolated
threat for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. For this
reason, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level
1 of 5) for most of the region on Sunday, with the main threat
remaining damaging wind gust potential.
Monday and Tuesday, the upper level low continues tracking east from
southern Alberta to the Great Lakes region. As this low tracks east,
a few shortwaves are expected to track across the region, bringing
potential for showers and thunderstorms both days. Precipitation
chances appear more likely on Monday evening into the nighttime
hours, as the upper shortwave tracks a jet max across the region. At
this time, the severe weather risk appears to be less certain.
However, guidance does continue to suggest areas of higher
instability and deep layer shear across the region, which may still
support strong to severe thunderstorms. There is also strong deep
layer shear expected on Tuesday, however the available instability
is a bit more in question. While the exact severe risk is still a
little uncertain, will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends
for early next week, as precipitation looks likely at least through
Monday night, with another round possible into Tuesday night.
Wednesday onward, upper level ridging amplifies a bit more, favoring
a warmer, drier forecast through the end of the week. As of now,
precipitation chances remain generally less than 20 percent each
evening. Ensemble guidance paints a similar picture, with chances of
measureable precipitation around 20 to 30 percent, with chances of
one tenth of an inch or greater generally less than 20 percent. So,
even if there is some potential for precipitation late week,
expecting it would be very light. The upper level ridging will also
support warmer than average temperatures through the end of the
week. In fact, current highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
mid 90s. For reference, typical highs to start off September are
right around 85 degrees across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Westerly winds are expected
throughout the day, remaining relatively light. Scattered mid to
high level clouds are expected throughout the day, with increasing
cloud cover this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may develop
across western Nebraska this evening and track east. While these may
bring localized ceiling and visibility impacts and gusty, erratic
winds, confidence remains low in storms reaching either KLBF or
KVTN. For this reason, have omitted a mention from the TAFs.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion