146
FXUS63 KLBF 290519
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1219 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain or rain/snow mix will continue through early this evening
but marginal temperatures will limit if not preclude any
wintry impacts.
- Patchy fog is likely to develop across much of western
Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday, with locally dense fog
possible for the Wednesday morning drive.
- Return to warmer temperatures (low to mid 70s) heading into
the weekend
- Low confidence in rain and thunderstorms returning Sunday
evening through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Early this morning and afternoon, scattered to widespread
precipitation tracked out of the Nebraska Panhandle through much of
the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. This was driven by a modest
shortwave moving off the higher terrain. Ample mid-level moisture
with cooler surface temperatures thanks to lingering surface high
pressure allowed for rain to transition to snow. Moderate to even
heavy bursts of snow, thanks to steep lapse rates aloft beneath a
core of colder h5 temperatures, lead to brief periods of less than
one mile visibility and slushy accumulations on some area roads.
Mesoanalysis with support from midday satellite imagery shows the
trough axis quickly approaching our western zones and this should
effectively sweep the precipitation out of western Nebraska. Light
rain and/or snow may persist for portions of northern Nebraska into
the evening hours but wintry impacts are largely complete and
shouldn`t be an issue overnight tonight.
For tonight...the main concern will then focus on the threat for fog
development. Recent rainfall has bolstered low-level moisture across
the area. MRMS estimates show a fairly large expanse of 0.15"+
liquid equivalent across the southern Sandhills into portions of
southwest Nebraska. High pressure will settle south and east through
the area. As winds go light beneath clearing mid and upper-level
skies, radiational cooling with the increased moisture should lead
to a rapid development of fog for much of the forecast area. HREF
probabilities suggest a quick ramp up in < 1SM probabilities,
reaching 70%+ by 2-3am CDT with values not falling below this
threshold again until closer to 9-10am CDT. Have elected to cover
this area with a patchy fog mention for now. Late morning HRRR
guidance shows a similar footprint with < 1/2SM visibility for many
locations across the area. Fog is notoriously tricky at range,
especially the expected magnitude. Though confidence in
occurrence is on the higher end, will allow subsequent shifts
to decide placement of any potential Dense Fog Advisory. Given
the increased moisture and expected fog development, overnight
lows were increased slightly. Many locations will still fall
below the freezing mark but middle 20s appears increasingly
unlikely and given many locations have already reached the hard
freeze criteria in the past few weeks, will forego any
Frost/Freeze headlines at this time.
Wednesday/Wednesday night...fog will be slow to dissipate as
low- level winds remain weak through much of the late morning
hours. Winds should back to the south as high pressure settles
east. This should allow for enough low-level convergence off the
Cheyenne Ridge to form some afternoon showers and thunderstorms
for our far southwest. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s
to lower 60s with slight increases in low-level moisture
through the daytime. This will result in limited instability
with negative LIs and MUCAPE nearing 250-350 j/kg. While deep
layer shear will be strong beneath a departing belt of strong h5
flow, the meager instability will preclude any severe
potential. HREF measurable rainfall probabilities increase by
midday over northeast Colorado with further increases by mid-
afternoon reaching southwest Nebraska. QPF appears fairly
limited, with > 0.05" potential only reaching around 50% for our
far southwest from the HREF output. While the NBM is more
bullish, showing nearly 50% for exceeding 0.25", deterministic
CAMs such as the HRRR/NAM Nest show this being fairly spotty in
nature and unlikely to be observed over a majority of the area.
Have PoPs reaching near 40-50% in our southwest with a blanket
Slight Chance (< 25%) elsewhere. This is due to steepening low-
level lapse rates within a developing cu field potentially
leading to isolated shower activity. Forecast soundings show
reasonable depth to this saturated layer to perhaps lead to an
isolated lightning threat but will hold off on inserting this
until confidence in increases. PoPs should decrease for most by
late Wednesday. The exception to this will be far southwest
zones where renewed development from a shortwave crossing the
Front Range may graze the area to the southwest. Thursday
morning lows were increased as a result of cloud cover and
precipitation with 30s across the area but values closer to 40F
in our far south through central Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026
Lingering precipitation should begin to clear out of the region by
Thursday evening. Thursday highs should reach the upper 50s to low
60s as slightly below normal temperatures will remain through the
rest of the week. A blocking ridge pattern over the Pacific
Northwest will take shape late this week into the early weekend. A
developing low forms off the coast of NorCal with a mid to upper
ridge building downstream of it. This upper level ridge starts to
move in from the Rockies and will be the driving force for a warmup
heading into the weekend. Highs will climb to the low to upper 70s
(5 to 10 degrees above normal) through the weekend and early next
week. The result from the warmer temperatures and the ridge building
in is humidity dropping into the lower teens to mid 20s each day,
starting Saturday through Monday. This could lead to heightened fire
weather concerns again, although this will be dependent of how
receptive fuel are to recent precipitation this week and whether
winds trend stronger heading into the late weekend.
An embedded shortwave may develop on the leeward side of the upper
ridge and trek over west-central NE Sunday evening into Monday. This
pattern could signal some light precipitation across the western
portions of the region, but amounts remain low if any at this time
with latest LREF probabilities of >0.10" being 10 - 20%.
Additionally, guidance shows a non zero chance (15 to 25%) of
isolated thunderstorms developing within the area, but confidence
remains low at this time. The forecast will continue to be monitored
and refined in the coming days for any changes.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026
Low stratus and fog will persist for Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska terminals, with periods of IFR/LIFR CIGs and
visibilities. This low stratus and fog will end by late
Wednesday morning, with a return of VFR then expected into
Wednesday night.
Winds remain light and variable into Wednesday afternoon, before
becoming northwest at 5 to 10kts. Winds then become light and
variable Wednesday night.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NEZ035>038-056>059-069-070.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion