401
FXUS63 KLBF 130834
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
334 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much colder temperatures return to the area today, with highs
remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s.
- Rain returns Wednesday night and persists into Thursday, with
widespread accumulations expected across western and north central
Nebraska.
- Moderate to high confidence in below normal temperatures by the
end of the week with a frost/freeze potential.
- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and milder conditions by
the end of the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Currently, stratus has again expanded across much of the area, in
the wake of a cold front that has cleared the area to the south.
Temperatures range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, with the warmest
temperatures underneath the aforementioned stratus deck. Ample
mechanical mixing in response to increasing cold advection is
promoting gusty northeast winds.
For today, expect the gusty northeast winds to continue through
early morning, before beginning to wane near sunrise as cold
advection begins to weaken. Temperatures this afternoon will be
highly dependent on how quickly low stratus erodes, with this
lending uncertainty in highs across the area. Given the struggle of
the stratus to erode yesterday, have trended highs down today with
expectations that guidance may again be too quick with the erosion
yet again. This now keeps highs in the upper 50s to the low 60s,
some 20 to 25 degrees colder for much of southwest Nebraska versus
yesterday. Lows tonight will also be greatly impacted by any
lingering stratus from today, combined with additional low cloud
development early Wednesday morning. This is in response to
increasing low level upslope flow, along with increasing moisture
advection aloft ahead of a deep upper low beginning to move east out
of the Rockies. Any clearing tonight will allow for temperatures to
quickly bottom out across northern Nebraska, where weak winds are
also expected in the vicinity of surface high pressure centered
across South Dakota. Should this occur, a quick drop into the middle
30s could lead to frost development, though confidence in this
remains low for now. Slightly stronger winds further south should
keep temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s and preclude any
frost concerns.
By tomorrow, the aforementioned upper low will begin to eject east
across the Rockies, reaching eastern Colorado by tomorrow night.
Strong surface cyclogenesis will commence across southeastern
Colorado by tomorrow afternoon, with broad easterly upslope flow
continuing across the area to the north of this feature. This will
promote increasing isentropic ascent tomorrow afternoon, leading to
increasing shower coverage as the upper low begins to pivot towards
the area. The greatest precipitation coverage looks to still be
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the upper low begins
to pivot overhead and looks to put the area eventually within the
dry slot on Thursday. Some threat for embedded thunderstorms can
also be expected tomorrow night, as guidance is in good agreement
with meager MUCAPE of ~100-250J/kg in place.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Active weather continues into Thursday as the system pushes through
Nebraska. Confidence is increasing in QPF amounts with most
locations seeing at least a half inch of rainfall. Some isolated
locations under some of the heavier showers or thunderstorms could
even see over an inch. The latest probabilities support this as the
probability of seeing over an inch is 80 percent or higher across
the entire forecast area, and the probability of seeing over 1 inch
is over 50 percent for areas across the Sandhills and into central
Nebraska. While these rainfall totals are significant, especially
after several days with no rain, the longer duration of this system
should keep any flooding concerns at bay. Still, will be monitoring
the rainfall totals and flooding potential closely as the event
unfolds. Precipitation will begin to push out of the area Thursday
afternoon, completely exiting the area by Thursday evening.
Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the
western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of
Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With
this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass
into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures
in the -1 to 4 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to
rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through the
weekend, rising back into the 70s by Sunday. This milder air will
persist through the beginning of next week.
For low temperatures, this CAA will drop overnight temperatures into
the upper 20s to low 30s across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska
with elsewhere seeing lows in the mid 30s on Friday morning.
Widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s continue into
Friday night/Saturday morning. Given this colder airmass, frost and
freeze potential is likely by the end of the week. At this time,
headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature trend
remains consistent and confidence increases, they will be necessary.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date
information regarding frost/freeze potential.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Overcast to mostly overcast skies will persist through Tuesday
evening. Ceilings will remain below 2000 feet through mid-morning
before beginning to rise. Across northern Nebraska, VFR conditions
may return briefly this afternoon, but will be short lived as the
next system pushes into the region. Northeast winds will remain
strong through early morning with gusts up to 25 knots possible
before diminishing by late morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion