006
FXUS63 KLBF 131858 AAA
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
158 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate to high confidence in near-critical to critical fire
conditions on Saturday.
- Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snowfall across
northern Nebraska Saturday night and into Sunday.
-Moderate to high confidence in dry conditions and above normal
temperatures next week with temperatures rising into the 80s by mid-
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Dry and warm conditions continue through Saturday as high pressure
builds into the region. This will create a favorable environment for
fire weather concerns on Saturday. Strong winds will begin to
develop by late Saturday morning as the next system begins to deepen
across eastern Wyoming. Above normal temperatures in the mid 70s
combined with afternoon RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range will
create near-critical to critical fire conditions across much of
southwest Nebraska and into portions of the Sandhills and central
Nebraska. While west southwest winds will be strongest across the
eastern Panhandle (gusts up to 40 to 45 mph), winds elsewhere will
still be as high as to 30 mph. With fuels dry, any fire starts, even
with the slightly lower winds, could cause some uncontrollable and
unpredictable fires. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a Red
Flag Warning for the majority of region for Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
The main concern in the long term will be the arrival of a winter
system on Saturday night. This system will bring the potential for
snow across northern Nebraska as well as strong winds to much of
north central and western Nebraska. As this system develops and
deepens across Nebraska on Saturday, very strong winds will develop.
As it tracks eastward Saturday night, precipitation on the northern
and western sides of the low will bring some much needed
precipitation to portions of northern Nebraska. A very sharp
gradient will exist on the southern end of the system, however,
where this gradient/cut-off sets up is still uncertain. Current QPF
amounts of up to a half inch are expected across Boyd and northern
Holt counties which, with snow ratios near 20:1, will result in up
to 3 inches of snowfall. In addition to snowfall, this system will
bring some very gusty winds to the region on Saturday night and into
Sunday. Some locations could see north/northwest gusts up to 50 to
55 mph. At this time, a high wind watch is in effect for much of the
region (all counties except Holt and Boyd) where gusts up to 60 mph
may be possible. Further to the north, these strong wind gusts will
create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well as increased
visibility restrictions in falling snow. Have gone ahead and issued
a winter storm watch for Holt and Boyd counties to account for the
combined wind and snow affects.
High pressure will build back into the region early next week
bringing with it a return to dry and warmer conditions. Temperatures
will gradually warm back up through mid-week, with highs returning
back into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Latest EFI remains high
(0.8 to 0.9) with marginal SoT (between 0 and 1) increasing
confidence that more extreme, potentially record-breaking, maximum
temperatures may occur on Thursday. Therefore, would not be
surprised to see temperatures increase in the next day or two.
Speaking of records, record highs currently sit at 90, 85, 86, and
87 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial
respectively. If temperatures do increase into the upper 80s to low
90s by late week, most if not all of these sites will have the
opportunity to break new records.
There is a low end chance of some isolated precipitation on Monday
night and into Tuesday as a shortwave pushes across the northern
Plains. At this time, confidence is low in development and any
precipitation that does develop is expected to be light with little
in the way of QPF. Therefore, confident in continuing to advertise a
generally dry forecast through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Expect broken mid level cloudiness with ceilings around 6000 FT
AGL, to persist this afternoon over northern Nebraska. This will
impact the KVTN terminal through 00z Saturday. Ceilings will
scatter out and increase to 20000 to 25000 FT AGL thereafter.
For southern Nebraska, expect scattered high clouds to persist
over the next 24 hours with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Winds
will generally be under 15 KTS this afternoon with wind
direction being variable at the KVTN terminal and southerly at
the KLBF terminal. Winds will diminish further tonight with low
level wind shear developing after 06z at the KVTN terminal and
after 10z at the KLBF terminal. Winds will begin to mix out by
mid morning at the KLBF terminal with southwesterly wind gusts
approaching 20 KTS after 15z Saturday. Winds will be from the
east and southeast at the KVTN terminal at around 10 KTS
Saturday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026
Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Saturday as
RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 20
percent for much of the region with some locations across extreme
southwest Nebraska dropping below 15 percent. Westerly wind gusts up
to 45 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts
across the rest of the area up to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now
in effect through early evening due to these strong winds, lower RH
values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will
recover to over 70 percent as the next weather system pushes into
the region bringing some light precipitation to northern Nebraska.
QPF values will remain under a half inch for areas mainly north of
Highway 2, with lesser amounts to the south and west.
While humidity values remain generally over 30 percent on Sunday,
strong gusty winds will return to the entire region, even those
areas not expected to get precipitation. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are
expected through the afternoon before winds begin to diminish after
sunset. For those areas that do not get any precipitation on Sunday,
some elevated fire conditions may be possible due to the strong
winds. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most locations to
account for the anticipated strong northerly winds.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Saturday for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
NEZ004>006-008-009-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for NEZ007-010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion