277
FXUS63 KLBF 110744
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
244 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler, breezy conditions across western and north central
Nebraska this afternoon, with northwesterly to westerly wind
gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Near critical fire
weather concerns are possible this afternoon, and possible
brief, localized critical concerns across southwest Nebraska.
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday, as
abnormally warm temperatures and low relative humidity
combine with westerly wind gusts in excess of 60 mph across
western Nebraska. Across north central Nebraska, wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph are expected.
- Near critical fire weather concerns persist into Friday and
Saturday, as warm, dry, and windy conditions continue across
the area.
- Light rain and snow is possible behind a cold front Saturday
night into Sunday. At this time, areas north of Interstate 80
have the best potential to see accumulations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
An upper level trough continues to track across the region today,
with surface high pressure building on the back side of the system.
With this set up, skies begin to clear throughout the morning, with
mostly clear skies expected by the afternoon. Continued cool air
advection this afternoon will keep temperatures more mild, with
highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. These more mild
temperatures are actually right around seasonal average for early to
mid March. However, conditions still remain dry across southwest
Nebraska, especially since little to no precipitation has been
received recently. Relative humidity values remain low across
southwest Nebraska into portions of the Panhandle, generally between
15 to 20 percent. Sustained northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph are
expected this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph. These stronger
wind gusts and low relative humidity are expected to overlap for a
few hours, bringing at least near critical fire weather concerns,
and possible brief localized critical concerns especially across
southwest Nebraska.
However, a much more concerning set up arrives Thursday. Strong
downslope flow brings a plume of warm air advection and very gusty
winds across western Nebraska. This brings in abnormally warm
temperatures across the region, with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Along with these warmer temperatures, afternoon humidity values drop
around 15 percent across most of the region. Winds are expected to
be very strong west of Highway 83, with sustained westerly winds of
35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. East of Highway 83, winds still
remain strong, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph, gusting to 40
mph. With all of this combined, expecting critical fire weather
conditions across most of, if not all, of western and north central
Nebraska. As such, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor, as an upgrade to a Red
Flag Warning may be warranted.
Also worth mentioning that with the strong winds on Thursday, have
issued a High Wind Watch for areas west of Highway 83. These winds
will create strong crosswinds on north-south oriented roads,
possible creating some difficult travel conditions. As mentioned
above, these winds also will contribute to critical fire weather
concerns, as any fire start will rapidly spread with these very
strong winds. Will keep a very close eye on high resolution guidance
in the next couple forecast cycles to see if further eastward
expansion is warranted.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
A cold front bisects the area early Friday morning, with a cooler
airmass in place across north central Nebraska. This front will
slowly move east through the day, with southerly flow returning to
western and southwest Nebraska by early afternoon. The increasing
warm advection will boost temperatures across southwest Nebraska,
with highs returning to the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs struggle to
leave the upper 40s in north central Nebraska, where warm advection
is slower to return on top of cloud cover concerns. Unfortunately,
the warmer highs in western Nebraska will again lead to fire weather
concerns, as humidity falls into the teens Friday afternoon. The
strongest west winds are expected along and west of HWY 61 at this
time, and this is where fire concerns will be maximized.
Warm advection persists into Saturday, as downslope flow establishes
across much of western and southwest Nebraska. The highs in the 60s
to 70s expand further into the Sandhills and central Nebraska, with
highs again struggling to leave the 50s further northeast. This
again pushes humidity values to as low as 15 to 20 percent across
western and southwest Nebraska, setting the stage for another
elevated to near critical fire weather day. Westerly wind gusts
approaching 25 to 35 miles per hour west of HWY 83, and this is
where critical fire conditions may develop.
A cold front then passes through the area Saturday night, as a
surface low ejects east out of Colorado and into the central Plains.
Light rain changing to snow is possible behind this front, though
confidence in both coverage and amounts remains low for now.
Probabilities of >0.10" are highest north of I-80 at this time,
ranging from ~40-60% north of HWY 2 through Sunday afternoon. Trends
will be monitored, and this looks to be the next shot of
precipitation across the area. Temperatures then quickly return back
to above average as we head into early next week, and this looks to
bring a return of fire weather concerns yet again.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Low stratus and snow will continue to quickly move across the
Sandhills and into central Nebraska, with MVFR/IFR CIGs and
visibilities persisting. Snow will exit the area by sunrise,
with a return of VFR then expected through Wednesday night.
Winds remain gusty from the north through Wednesday afternoon,
with widespread gusts of 25 to 30kts for all terminals. Winds
then weaken around sunset, becoming west-southwest at 5 to
10kts Wednesday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for
this afternoon, primarily in areas that did not see appreciable
snowfall early this morning. This would largely be for areas south
of Interstate 80. That said, despite highs in the middle 40s to low
50s today, humidity values are expected to fall in the 15 to 25
percent range. As winds increase to 25 to 35 miles per hour from the
northwest this afternoon, fire concerns will increase across the
area. Near critical to briefly critical fire concerns are expected
this afternoon.
Fire concerns greatly increase for Thursday, with the potential for
a higher end fire weather day across the area. Temperatures in the
70s will combine with dry air and lead to humidity falling to as low
as 12 to 20 percent across the entire area. Very strong winds are
expected to develop tomorrow afternoon, with sustained westerly
winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. East of Highway 83,
winds still remain strong, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph,
gusting to 40 mph. This will overlap the low humidity and lead to
critical fire conditions across all of western and north central
Nebraska. This will lead to erratic fire spread and rapid fire
growth. A strong cold front will also pass through the area
Thursday night into Friday, leading to a wind shift from west to
northwest. A corridor of very strong northwest winds (50+ miles
per hour) are possible across northern Nebraska with its
passage. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western
and north central Nebraska for Thursday.
Fire concerns persist into Friday and Saturday, primarily across
western and southwest Nebraska. A brief cooldown on Sunday lessens
fire concerns, before temperatures quickly warm early next week.
This could mark a return of elevated to near critical conditions to
the area yet again.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for NEZ004-005-022>024-035-036-056-057-094.
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion