761
FXUS63 KLBF 092119
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold temperatures will move into the area beginning Monday
  and persisting through Wednesday.

- Potential for minor impacts from periods of light snow Monday
  afternoon through Tuesday. Snowfall amounts will mainly be an
  inch or less.

- A more significant system will affect the southern half of the
  area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4
  inches are possible across portions of southwest and central
  Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025

Tonight, an upper trough will dig south into the Northern
Plains. This will drive an arctic front southward into northern
Nebraska. This will bring lows of 5 to 10 above across much of
north central Nebraska. Strong surface high pressure near 1052mb
will become centered over southern Alberta Canada by daybreak.

The next potential for light snow accumulations arrives late Monday
morning and continues into Tuesday as an upper trough persists across
the Northern Plains and drives arctic air southward through
western Nebraska by late Monday afternoon.

Total snowfall amounts have increased slightly from the previous
forecasts. The latest 3km NAM and 18Z HRRR shown an area of
weak frontogenesis Monday afternoon across eastern Cherry
County through Boyd and northern Holt County with snowfall
amounts from a half inch to an inch. Monday night into Tuesday,
snow remain likely across the west and south, though additional
snowfall amounts are expected to remain an inch or less. Highs
Monday will be cold in the upper teens far northern Nebraska,
while southwest and central Nebraska reach the mid 30s before
the arctic front moves through late afternoon. Monday night will
be bitterly cold from 4 below to 4 above. Lowest wind chills
from 10 below to near 15 below with a northeast wind 10 to 15
mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025

A more significant system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday
and will bring the potential for moderate snow accumulations.
The main upper trough axis will cross the Central Rockies
Tuesday and across Nebraska and Kansas Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A coupled 300mb jet is indicated by the GFS. The
northern jet axis will extend across northern Nebraska across
southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, while the southern jet axis
will extend from southwest Texas across southeast Oklahoma and
southeast Missouri. This will provide an area of upper level
divergence across Kansas and southern Nebraska. While PWATs
will be modest from a quarter to a third of an inch across
southern Nebraska, SLRs will be highs near 20 to 1. Forecast
snowfall amounts will be 1 to 3 inches south of an Ogallala
through Burwell line, possibiliy near 4 inches across the far
southeastern zones. The GFS showed a slight shift southeast with
the precipitation shield, while the ECMWF shifted slightly
further north. Forecast confidence is average with snowfall
amounts, though amounts are likely to change the next day or
two.

Very cold Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the teens. Wind
chill values as low as 10 to 15 below during the nighttime and
morning hours.

Mainly dry conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night as
a deep upper trough moves into California, and upper ridging
builds into the region.

Another chance for snow Friday night into Saturday, mainly
across the south, as an upper trough crosses the region.

Highs next Thursday are forecast to moderate to the mid 20s to
low 30s and 30s Friday. Snow chances return Friday into
Saturday. Turning colder Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025

VFR conditions will persist this afternoon through tonight. An
arctic cold front will move into northern Nebraska tonight.
This will bring MVFR ceilings to KVTN by 16Z Monday with light
snow possible after 15Z. At KLBF, VFR conditions will persist
trough the end of the TAF period, with BKN120 expected by 16Z
Monday. Winds at KLBF and KVTN will remain light at below 10KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion