000
FXUS63 KLBF 201735
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1235 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Key Messages:

- A warm front stalled out across central Nebraska will be the
  focus for mixed precipitation, including light snow, and light
  freezing rain Tuesday morning.

- Another weather system Wednesday into Wednesday night will bring
  the chance for light rain across the south and light snow
  across north central Nebraska.

- The next potential for rain or snow arrives Saturday through
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

A cold front will stall out across south central Nebraska Nebraska
as winds across the forecast this morning start out northeast this
morning and become easterly this afternoon. There will also be
increasing high cloudiness with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs will be held back a few degrees across the area behind the
front, from the low to mid 50s far southwest, to the upper 30s to
low 40s far northern Nebraska.

A disturbance and closed low currently moving onto the Pacific
Northwest will move eastward tonight, reaching central Wyoming. A
stalled cold front across far southern Nebraska will lift into
central Nebraska by early Tuesday morning. This will result in
weak isentropic upglide north of the front across west central
into north central Nebraska. Temperatures by 12Z Tuesday will be
sub freezing, from the low to mid 20s north central to near 30
across the south. Bufkit soundings support some freezing rain or
sleet during the morning across west central into north central
Nebraska. Ice accumulation to around five hundredths of an inch
are forecast. Multi- models including the HRRR, NAMNest, NAM, GFS
and ECMWF also indicate some light freezing rain, sleet, as well
as light snow across this area, while favoring light rain across
the southeast, closer to the warm front. The NAM has been and
continues to be the wettest model. The official WPC QPFs are
rather light from only a few hundredths of an inch across west
central Nebraska to five hundredths to around two tenths of an
inch across north central Nebraska. In addition to the freezing
rain potential, light snow accumulation to around a half inch are
expected north of Highway 2 in north central Nebraska. During the
afternoon, precipitation will lift northeast, in the form of rain
or snow, and should begin exiting the northeastern zones by
around 21Z. Will continue to monitor model trends, as increasing
amounts of snow or freezing rain could create hazardous travel
conditions. Afternoon temperatures behind the system will reach
near 55 in the southwest to the low 40s across northern Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

Attention then turns to a deep upper trough moving across the Great
Basin Tuesday night, with the first piece of energy from this
reaching the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Colder temperatures in the 30s Wednesday across the north
will favor snow as the precipitation type, while mainly rain
further south. Models differ somewhat on location. At this time,
light snow accumulation up to an inch or two are possible across
north central Nebraska.

Mainly dry Thursday into Friday, followed by another upper trough
crossing the Northern and Central Plains Saturday into Sunday. The
GFS and ECMWF differ on timing and location, so confidence is low
this system will bring much in the way of rain or snow.

Temperatures will remain warmest across the south in the upper 40s
to lower 50s Thursday through Saturday, while colder across the
north in the 30s to around 40 through Thursday, then into the 40s
Friday and Saturday. Sunday looks cooler behind a cold front in
the 30s to around 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2023

A few aviation weather hazards may affect western and north
central Nebraska terminals tonight into Wednesday morning,
including low ceilings, fog, and freezing rain. Ceilings begin to
lower overnight and reach MVFR or IFR by 21/12z. Precipitation
will then develop, possibly in the form of freezing rain or
rain/snow mix. East winds become light and variable tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Snively

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion