828
FXUS63 KLBF 240847
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances will continue to increase this weekend, with a more
widespread rain event expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in cooler conditions along with
rainfall through early week.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and warmer temperatures
by the middle of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A deep upper level trough is observed across the western United
States tonight, which is slowly tracking east. At the surface, a low
pressure system tracks across the Dakotas, pushing an initial cold
front across portions of western Nebraska. Along the cold front,
ample atmospheric moisture combined with the forcing of the front is
producing light rain showers. As this initial front pushes through
the region, expect a push of cooler and slightly drier air across
portions of northwest Nebraska. In fact, this will be the general
set up for temperatures this weekend, with mostly cooler than
seasonal temperatures expected across the region, with coolest
temperatures remaining across northwest Nebraska.

Throughout the day, expecting to see the upper level trough begin to
transition to a cut off low across the Desert Southwest. As this
transition happens, will still see a push of southerly winds aloft,
which will continue to bring a plume of Pacific moisture across the
region. This upper level pattern will continue to support upper
level divergence, and combined with the strong plume of Pacific
moisture brings increasing precipitation chances across the region
this weekend. The initial cold front pushing through overnight is
eventually expected to stall out to the east and southeast of the
forecast area, and as mentioned above, brings cooler, drier air
across the region. The ample Pacific moisture aloft will have to
overcome the cooler, drier layer near the surface before
precipitation can become more widespread. This should also help keep
PoPs slightly more limited through the morning and potentially the
early afternoon today. However, given this set up, may still see
some showery activity on radar this afternoon which is not quite
reaching the surface. As moisture advection continues aloft, should
slowly see saturation developing in the lower layers of the
environment, allowing for better rain chances to develop by the
evening hours. Still, cannot rule out some heavier showers
throughout the afternoon and early evening, with higher end amounts
around one tenth to one quarter of an inch of rainfall. Given that
the environment will need to initially overcome the dry lower
layers, do think these higher end amounts may be slightly too
aggressive. As mentioned above, would not be surprised to see early
showers struggle to reach the surface, offering little to no
precipitation early afternoon, with better chances for rain to reach
the surface late afternoon into the evening, just given the push of
low level dry air.

As the dry lower layer is slowly saturated throughout the day, do
expect better rain chances Saturday night across most of the region.
Showers are expected to continue in vicinity of a slow moving
surface low, and with the upper level support, should provide a
scattering of rain showers across portions of the region Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Again, seeing these as mostly lighter
rain showers, potentially bringing one tenth to one quarter of an
inch overnight. Seeing as precipitation is expected to continue and
skies remain mostly overcast, do think that temperatures should
remain just warm enough to keep precipitation mostly liquid.
However, in the predawn hours, cannot completely rule out the
possibility of maybe seeing a few snow flakes mixing in with the
rain showers, especially areas across northwest Nebraska and the
western Sandhills. However, with soil temperatures still remaining
in the 60s across the region, do not expect that this will amount to
anything, even if a few snowflakes are observed.

Showers are expected to persist throughout the day on Sunday, with
heaviest rainfall expected overnight. Throughout the day, mostly
expecting rain showers to continue, but cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder across southwest portions of the state. As cooler
air persists across most of the region, expecting that thunderstorm
chances remain relatively low, but still a non-zero chance to hear
some thunder Sunday afternoon and evening. Speaking of the cooler
temperatures, current guidance calls for highs in the 40s across
northwest Nebraska, ranging to around the mid 50s across southwest
and central Nebraska.

By Sunday night, the upper level low is expected to lift slightly to
the northeast, tracking a surface low just to the southwest. This
should firmly keep us north of the warm front, supporting a broad
precipitation shield across most of the region. Guidance continues
to suggest this period as our best rain chances throughout the
weekend, as well as the period when we can expect our higher end
rainfall totals. With this set up, high resolution guidance suggests
the possibility of a corridor of higher rainfall totals, however
disagreement remains in the models of where this sets up, including
how far west precipitation can be expected. Some guidance does
suggest a more narrow gradient between higher end amounts and low
end precipitation amounts Sunday night. However, do think that most
areas across western and north central Nebraska will at least see
rainfall at some point on Sunday evening and Sunday night. The
uncertainty remains in how much. The last few forecast cycles, have
seen a downward trend in precipitation totals, along with a slight
easterly trend. However, this latest forecast cycle, now able to
utilize higher resolution guidance, trended precipitation totals
through the weekend back towards higher end amounts. Latest
probabilistic guidance suggests strong possibilities, generally
greater than 80 percent, that areas along and east of Highway 61 see
a total rainfall this weekend exceeding one inch. Ensembles even
suggest a possibility that areas east of Highway 83 may see some
localized areas exceeding 2 inches total this weekend. There is
certainly the upper level and surface support, not to mention the
plume of Pacific moisture aloft to support some of these aggressive
solutions. However, giving some pause for concern, is that high
resolution guidance really only brings this under potential areas of
convective showers, and otherwise keeps weekend precipitation totals
around half an inch outside convection. All this to really say,
while there is a possibility of areas exceeding one inch, and
possibly even 2 inches in areas this weekend, think that more
realistic widespread totals will favor the lower end. Much seems to
depend on where a more convective element can set up, which tends to
lower confidence over a more broad area. That being said, do think
that most of the region will at least see some rainfall this
weekend. Cannot even rule out that portions of northwest Nebraska
may even see some snowflakes mixing in to the rain Sunday and Monday
morning, however, not expecting any impacts from this possibility at
all, given the warm soil temperatures. At the very least, probably a
good idea to have your rain gear ready this weekend, with some
question remaining on how much each location will receive. |

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Active weather continues into Monday with the potential for
widespread rainfall continuing across the area. While the majority
of the QPF will have fallen on Sunday and Sunday night, some areas,
mainly across extreme north central Nebraska, could see an
additional half inch to 1 inch of new rainfall just on Monday alone.
The latest probabilities support this as the probability of seeing
over a half inch is 90 percent or higher across areas east of US-83,
and the probability of seeing over 1 inch is still over 80 percent
for these same areas. Therefore, confidence remains high that
portions of the forecast area will see up to another inch on Monday
before precipitation begins to push out of the area Monday night,
completely exiting the area by Tuesday morning. Some additional low
end (less than 25 percent) PoPs are then possible on Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a weak trough pushes through the region. At
this point, not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals as any
shower development will remain isolated in nature. Some embedded
thunderstorms may also be possible with this Tuesday activity, but
with the best instability and forcing across eastern Nebraska, not
anticipating any severe storms. Drier conditions return mid-week as
weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the
region. Scattered showers return by late week, but confidence
remains too low in development, timing, and strength to put much
more than a mention in the forecast at this time.

For temperatures, continued rain and clouds as well as cold air
advection into the region will keep temperatures cooler than normal
on Monday. Highs will only rise into the upper 40s to upper 50s,
with some locations across the Pine Ridge remaining in the low 40s.
Warmer weather arrives Tuesday lasting through the end of the week
as ridging builds back over Nebraska. A return to warm air advection
and sunshine will allow temperatures to steadily rise back into the
low to mid 60s Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Gusty southerly winds are expected through Saturday morning before
diminishing. Gusts up to 30 knots will be possible. Low level wind
shear is also possible as the low level jet intensifies overnight.
Increasing precipitation chances then arrive by late Saturday
afternoon. Visibility restrictions down to 2 miles will be possible
in falling rain and light fog. Showers will not impact northern
Nebraska (KVTN) until Saturday evening, with the majority of the
heavier rainfall falling after 06Z Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion