253
FXUS63 KLBF 021722
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1222 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate confidence in stronger wind gusts up to 40 MPH this
afternoon and into the evening.
- A benign weather pattern is expected Sunday through Thursday with
little to no precipitation expected.
- Windy conditions are possible Monday with some gusts approaching
40 MPH in the Sandhills and northern Nebraska.
- Temperatures will be well above normal Monday through Thursday
with daily highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s, some
10 to 15 degrees above normal for the first week of October.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Strong high pressure will continue to build into the region
today keeping conditions dry. As high pressure starts to slide
off to the east, surface low pressure will allow to build across
the northern Plains. This will cause a tightening of the
pressure gradient across central Nebraska by the afternoon and
into the evening resulting in some stronger wind gusts.
Southerly winds will increase into the 35 to 40 mph gust range
by late afternoon mainly confined to areas west of an Ogallala
to Ainsworth line. While winds begin to diminish overnight, some
stronger gusts up to 30 mph could be possible across northern
Nebraska into Saturday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will
persist through Saturday night.
As high pressure pushes off to the east, some warm air advection
will filter into portions of north central Nebraska allowing surface
temperatures to moderate a little across northwest Nebraska today.
Expect highs to range from the mid 70s across the Pine Ridge to the
low 60s in central Nebraska. As the warmer airmass continues to
filter into the area, highs will continue to rise through the
beginning of the weekend. Highs will easily rise into the 70s with
some isolated locations in southwest Nebraska rising into the low
80s. Overnight lows will remain above normals (low 40s) in the mid
40s to low 50s through Saturday night as the warmer air settles into
the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
Cool Canadian high pressure will nose into the Dakotas and
northeastern portions of Nebraska overnight Saturday night.
Looking at the wind fields with this feature, northerly winds
look to not totally decouple across the eastern half of the
forecast area by Sunday morning. Further west however, winds
appear to become light and variable over the western third of
the forecast area late Saturday night. The latest MET and MAV
guidance for Sunday morning are indicating upper 30s over
northwestern portions of the forecast area. These numbers are
below the 10% ile with the latest NBM fcst tonight. With this in
mind, I did trend down lows in the west and northwest slightly
Sunday morning, but not as far as the MET and MAV guidance would
suggest. With the high pressure building into eastern Nebraska
Sunday, highs will be the coolest of the extended period with
readings only reaching the middle 60s in the east and around 70
in the west. On Monday, high pressure will build east of the
area into the upper Mississippi valley. At the same time, a
trough of low pressure will deepen from eastern Wyoming into
eastern Colorado. This will place the most of the forecast area
in a tight surface pressure gradient Monday afternoon. Based on
the deterministic GFS soln tonight and NBM ensembles, wind gusts
may approach 40 MPH in the Sandhills Monday afternoon. Gusty
southerly winds will increase low level warm air advection
across the area beginning Monday. Highs will reach well into the
70s to around 80 Monday afternoon. This will be followed by
even warmer temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs
Tuesday in the upper 70s to middle 80s and mid 70s to lower 80s
for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest MEX guidance for North
Platte has a high of 93 for Tuesday, which would break the
record of 91. Currently the NBM has a high of 82 which is just
under the 50th percentile of the NBM ensemble spread. Will need
to monitor forecast trends especially as the GFS tonight has a
minor ridge breakdown Tuesday which would mean the current NBM
forecast of 82 would more than likely need to be adjusted
higher. As mentioned earlier, after Tuesday, temperatures will
be slightly cooler for Wednesday and Thursday, albeit still
around 10 degrees above climatology for the first week of
October.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Gusty south winds this afternoon into the early evening will
transition to strong LLWS concerns for both terminals. Have
include a mention at both sites with gradual improvement towards
daybreak Saturday. Some guidance hints at low clouds and/or fog
early Saturday morning but given low probabilities advertised by
the HREF for MVFR or worse conditions, will maintain VFR
conditions. Skies should gradually clear towards the end of the
period with winds veering to the west and northwest.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion