081
FXUS63 KLBF 161154
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
654 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening across all of western and north central Nebraska
Saturday, with thunderstorms likely continuing overnight into
early Sunday.
- Sunday afternoon and evening potential for another chance of strong
to severe thunderstorms.
- Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday, with some
severe potential lingering across north central Nebraska and
cooling temperatures in the west perhaps reintroducing some
wintry precipitation for the Sandhills. At this time,
certainty in wintry impacts Monday night/Tuesday morning is
low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
A sfc low will deepen across SE Colorado Saturday increasing
southeast flow and moisture advection into the region. A warm front
will be in place to the south across northern Kansas. A few of the
CAMs suggest there could be convection by early afternoon, although
confidence is lower in the early convection it can`t be ruled out
given the unstable environment that will be in place by early
afternoon, where strong winds and large hail will be the main
hazards.
MU CAPE will increase by mid-afternoon to around 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
and 2500 to nearing 3000 J/kg by Saturday evening, with highest CAPE
values along and south of I-80. 0-6 km shear will increase to 45 to
50 kts by early afternoon and lapse rates will steepen. Moisture
will also increase in the afternoon with the greatest moisture
across southwest Nebraska into the southern Sandhills and portions
of north central Nebraska with dewpoints in the 50s. Bufkit
soundings show elongated hodographs by late evening, suggesting
storm mode will be supercells with greater potential for very large
hail. Most of the corridor south of interstate 80 is located within
a enhanced risk (level 3 or 5) for the threat of very large hail,
confidence in seeing thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail
in this corridor is medium to high. For areas outside of the
enhanced risk, there still remains a threat for large hail as the
environment will remain favorable, with steep lapse rates and wind
shear. There is also the potential as storms continue to progress
through the evening for a MCS to develop, which could enhance the
strong damaging wind threat. The main hazards with thunderstorms
Saturday will be strong damaging winds and large hail (potentially
greater than 3 inches), and an isolated tornado threat, greatest
across the southwest/southern portions of the forecast area (along
and south of I-80), can`t be ruled out. Convection will continue
into the overnight, with storms likely becoming more elevated in the
overnight.
Sunday could potentially be another active weather day, however
there is a little more uncertainty depending on where the frontal
boundary sets up across Nebraska. The latest forecast models have
started to shift it further eastward, which if the current trend
continues could result in less of the forecast area having a concern
for severe weather. Due to the uncertainty will need to closely
monitor the frontal boundary. The environment will be similar to
Saturday`s with steep lapse rates, MU CAPE values around 2000 J/kg
and greater and 0 to 6 km shear around 50 to 60 mph. The main
hazards will be strong, damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated
threat for a tornado can`t be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Monday...height falls will continue to overspread the area as
longwave troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the
Central Rockies. Another lead shortwave will eject and lift
northeast through western Nebraska during the daytime. This occurs
as strong cold air advection overspreads much of the local area. The
result will be a tightening baroclinic zone across largely south
central through northeast Nebraska by the afternoon. Afternoon highs
range from the lower 40s northwest to closer to 60F in vicinity of
the front. As a surface low lifts north and east along this feature,
rain and thunderstorms are likely to blossom during the afternoon
hours. With h85 east/southeasterly flow crossing over to the cool
side of the surface boundary, elevated instability should develop
for much of our eastern zones (east of Highway 83). Beneath a strong
h5 jet, deep layer shear will be quite strong with 50+ knots of BWD.
Though the Storm Prediction Center further retreated the Day 3 SWO
out of the local area, believe a few elevated hail storms remain
possible. Point forecast soundings, notably from the NAM, show very
strong instability above the frontal inversion with LIs falling below
-5C. Given the magnitude and distribution of instability, believe
severe hail remains possible for central and north central Nebraska.
Further west, instability wanes quickly across the
Sandhills/southwest Nebraska and thus the threat for thunder
decreases. Synoptic lift will increase as the h5 trough axis lifts
out of northeast Colorado. With cooling temperatures, believe some
snow will be possible for the Panhandle and along the NE/SD border.
With close proximity to a strong surface low, expect strong gusts.
Factoring this in with possible wintry precipitation, some travel
difficulties are possible but to what magnitude remains unclear
given antecedent warmth and uncertainty with ptype
changeover/placement.
Tuesday and beyond...mid-level disturbance will quickly lift north
and east, out of the Central Plains. Behind it, expansive troughing
will follow with heights building in through Tuesday into early
Wednesday. This will favor dry conditions with temperatures
beginning a slow recovery. Quasi-northwesterly flow should develop
by Thursday lasting through the late week. This will support spotty
precipitation chances with temperatures returning to seasonable
values and eventually above normal levels. Extended temperatures are
closely in-line with NBM median values, which show a steady rise
from Thursday through early the next week. This suggests a return to
upper 80s to lower 90s possible as we approach the end of the month.
Meanwhile, probabilistic guidance suggests modest potential for
measurable rain almost each day but signals for wetting rains remain
quite muted so truly beneficial moisture does not appear in the
cards for the mid-range of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Thunderstorms will be the main concern today, with impacts at
both terminals likely by early evening.
This morning, shallow echoes on radar as entering from the
southern Panhandle but little to no moisture is reaching the
ground. Later on, an isolated thunderstorm may develop across
the southern Sandhills to near LBF. Confidence in this remains
low and so will continue to cover with a PROB30. More certain
thunderstorms arrive early this evening with all hazards of
severe weather possible including heavy rain and low CIGS,
potentially reaching LIFR for brief periods. The heavier storms
should remain south of VTN but will include a brief mention of
lighter impacts. In the wake of storms, some low-level fog
appears possible. Confidence is limited though as SREF
probabilities show impacts but HREF does not. Will include a
mention for now but refinements in later forecasts remain
possible.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion