110
FXUS63 KLBF 281122
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate confidence rain and snow showers through through the
  morning, but low confidence in snow accumulations.

- High confidence in temperatures falling into the mid to upper
  20s across the region tonight.

- Low to moderate confidence in rain and thunderstorms returning
  Wednesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Precipitation will move into southwest and western Nebraska over the
next few hours overspreading the region by sunrise. There is some
concerns regarding precipitation type as it pushes into the region.
The majority of the region will see rain initially, before
temperatures drop below freezing. As surface temps drop to near 32
degrees, rain will transition over to a rain/snow mix and eventually
all snow. The locations of where snow will fall is still a little
uncertain, with areas across the Pine Ridge being the most likely to
see any type of accumulations. However, the latest model runs
indicate some snow as far south as the I-80 corridor. Currently not
expecting much more than a half inch of accumulations, even across
the Pine Ridge. Be aware, there is some probabilistic guidance that
suggests slightly higher amounts, particularly across southwest
Nebraska and just north of the I-80 corridor. Here guidance has the
potential to see over a half inch 30 to 40 percent. This should be
taken with a grain of salt, though, as this guidance is based off a
10:1 ratio... so would generally think amounts would slightly less
if expecting the 5:1 ratios. Still, with snow ratios of 5:1, any
accumulations will be slushy and very wet, and could result in some
travel difficulties early this morning not only due to snow on the
ground, but also due to snow as it`s falling and reducing
visibility.

In addition to the snow and rain potential heading into this
morning, some patchy fog will also be a possibility. Some of the
latest observations already have patchy fog building into the area
and would expect it to continue to build across the region,
generally west of US-83, but some fog could push into north central
Nebraska. Fog will persevere into the morning hours before beginning
to mix out by late morning. With ample moisture due to the expected
rainfall, some patchy fog may continue into early afternoon, mainly
across northern Nebraska.

Any snow will change over to all rain by mid-morning as temperatures
rise back above freezing. The majority of any precipitation
associated with this system will be stratiform in nature with QPF
amounts generally under a quarter inch. Precipitation will diminish
Tuesday evening as surface high pressure builds back into the
region. With clearing skies Tuesday night, low temperatures will
drop into the mid to upper 20s across the region. Not anticipating
any freeze headlines at this time, but will continue to be monitored.

Another trough will push through the region on Wednesday afternoon
and evening bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms to the
region. There will be some minimal instability (CAPE values around
500 J/kg, lapse rates around 7 C/km) around Wednesday which may
result in some more organized convection. At this time, not
expecting widespread severe storms, but a stronger storm with brief
gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned to the
latest forecast for any changes in the severe potential on Wednesday
evening. Any storm potential will be short lived, coming to an end
by Midnight CT. Some isolated showers across southwest Nebraska will
linger across southwest Nebraska through the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Any lingering precipitation should begin to quickly exit the area by
Thursday evening, as the upper trough axis pushes through aloft.
Lingering cloud cover keeps highs again in the 50s on Thursday,
though this looks to be the last well below average day in the
extended. Heights rise into Friday morning, with increasing
subsidence leading to clearing skies from north to south. Upper
ridging then establishes aloft across the Rockies, and will be the
primary driver in weather locally through the weekend. Highs
moderate back into the lower 70s by Saturday, and into the upper 70s
on Sunday. This increase in temperatures will promote much lower
humidity across the area, with minimum afternoon humidity in the
teens to low 20s each day this weekend. This could promote
increasing fire concerns again, though this will be dependent on how
fuels react to recent rainfall.

A shortwave will round the apex of the ridge axis Sunday night into
Monday, and this could lead to light precipitation across portions
of the area. This is in response to upslope low-level flow, and at
this time western Nebraska looks to be favored for any
precipitation. Confidence in accumulations remains low for now,
though broad NBM probabilities of >0.10" of ~20-30% exist across
much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Believe the inherited
15-25% POPs look adequate for now, and trends will continue to be
monitored. Guidance suggests at least meager MUCAPE in place, and
isolated thunderstorms appear possible Sunday into Monday as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Low stratus and precip will persist into this afternoon across
much of western and north central Nebraska, bringing MVFR/IFR
CIGs and periods of MVFR visibilities. Precipitation ends by
this evening, with CIGs also expected to improve to low-end VFR
tonight. Additional low stratus is possible early tomorrow
morning, though confidence in this remains low for now.

Winds remain southerly today at 5 to 10kts, before becoming
light and variable tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion