498
FXUS63 KLBF 102056
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
356 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Largely dry conditions are expected until rain with a few
rumbles of thunder possible arrive from the south tonight,
favoring central Nebraska.
- After a dry bulk of the day, rain and thunderstorms again
become possible late Saturday afternoon with a few stronger
storms capable of gusty winds and isolated severe hail.
- Warmer temperatures return for early next week, coinciding
with an increased concern for fire weather conditions. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for much of western Nebraska on
Sunday as a result.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Earlier this afternoon, an influx of recycled/rain-cooled air
stymied the warm-up for most locations. Readings have only managed
to reach the low to middle 50s as of 19z (2pm CDT) with persistent
east/southeast winds around 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph
at times. Skies were partly to mostly clear with altocumulus
crossing the region west to east. This hints at some modest
instability in place with the early afternoon. While the 18z RAOB
from LBF didn`t explicitly show measured instability, steep lapse
rates certainly helped and even an isolated thunderstorm tracked
across Hayes and Frontier Counties with copious lightning but little
in the way of rainfall.
For tonight, expect winds to continue to veer to the south by this
evening. Resulting warm air/moisture advection will lead to
increasing low cloud cover and rain potential. The forecast relies
heavily on HREF output for timing, which shows a 10pm CDT arrival in
our south with activity then lifting north and east through early
Saturday morning. This will be tied to a strong LLJ with continued
veering winds leading to the focus shifting to eastern
Nebraska/South Dakota towards daybreak. Given modest instability in
place Friday afternoon and the expected influx of elevated
instability tonight, have opted to include a Slight Chance (15%)
mention of thunder for central Nebraska. This is expected to occur
over top saturated low levels where patchy fog was introduced into
the forecast. Instability should be rooted around h85-h7 and be weak
at best thus severe weather is not expected but a few rumbles of
thunder and even some lightning cannot be ruled out. QPF will be
limited, favoring south central and eastern Nebraska where NBM
highlights 50-70% and 30-50% for exceeding 0.10" and 0.25"
respectively during the overnight. While a few locations may surpass
0.10" locally, driven by convection, most locations may struggle to
exceed 0.05".
Saturday...morning precipitation should depart to the east by
daybreak leaving much of the daytime dry. Upper-level height falls
will begin to spill onto the central High Plains as the next
disturbance lifts north and east out of the Four Corners region. Lee
troughing will lead to the formation of a weak low invof the
Nebraska Panhandle/southwest South Dakota. This will drag a surface
trough/dryline off the higher terrain. Storms should initiate off
this boundary to the west by late afternoon and move east/northeast.
As they do, they`ll encounter the richer airmass of west central
Nebraska where instability should be greater with similar shear
thanks to afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s. This would support
an increasing threat for strong to perhaps briefly severe
thunderstorms. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center
extends the pre-existing Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) further west
to encompass this threat. With MLCAPE nearing 1500 j/kg coincident
with 30-35 knot 0-6km BWD, multicell and brief supercell structures
appear possible. Limiting confidence is fairly modest lift and
increasing capping heading into the evening hours. HREF/NAM output
shows a cluster of storms lifting north and east out of Colorado and
into portions of western Nebraska between 6pm-Midnight and believe
the Marginal Risk captures this potential well. Any strong to severe
storm may be capable of 50-60 mph gusts and 1.00-1.25" hail.
Rainfall will be closely tied to where storms form and so
variability is possible with subsequent forecasts. For now, greatest
confidence appears closely tied to the western Sandhills towards the
Platte Valley where a few locations may approach a quarter of an
inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Sunday and Monday...Southwesterly flow will start the new week as
deep troughing continues to approach the West Coast. A few embedded
perturbations will ride up the departing ridge and bring a few
changes to the sensible weather. Increased lee troughing on Sunday
will support a flip to westerly downsloping winds with continuation
into Monday. This will coincide with the two warmest days of the
forecast as highs reach the upper 70s in the west to middle 80s.
Fire concerns will also be on the increase with details pertaining
to that below in the Fire Weather section. High temperatures are not
expected to threaten records at this time but will certainly exceed
15F above normal for mid-April. Weak low pressure will form across
South Dakota late Sunday night and drag a dryline east through far
western Nebraska. This will buffer any richer low-level moisture to
the heast of Highway 83 (potentially Highway 183). It`s these areas
that should see the greatest potential for precipitation. While the
NBM paints some low-end potential, belief is this is unlikely to
manifest into anything beneficial for the area and so later
forecasts may need to reduce PoPs to account for this.
Tuesday and beyond...height falls continue Monday evening into
Tuesday as longwave troughing approaches from the west. Though
subtle timing differences exists in deterministic solutions,
generally reasonable agreement is in place from trough ejection onto
the Plains sometime early Tuesday. Synoptic lift peaks early Tuesday
across western Nebraska as low-level Q-vector convergence maximizes.
Near to slightly above normal moisture quality with strong lift will
support increasing rain and thunderstorm potential. Latest NBM
probabilities paint upwards of 50% potential for exceeding 0.10"
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday across our western zones with
about 25% potential for exceeding 0.25" over the central Sandhills.
Current PoPs approach 65% with with non-zero instability in place,
believe some convective elements could lead to locally heavier
amounts. Details are far from certain so stay tuned. Temperatures
will fall slightly for our western zones Tuesday as highs only reach
the middle 60s with middle 70s elsewhere to the east. Slightly
warmer temperatures return on Wednesday with further warming for
Thursday. While fire weather concerns appear possible again,
confidence in precise details and potential for light precipitation
in the area casts some doubt on certainty. By late week, a deeper
trough will dive out of the Pacific Northwest and take aim on the
Central Rockies by the end of the forecast period. Reasonable
agreement in mid-range models suggests local impacts possible Friday
into Saturday to include more low-end rain chances and a slight
cooldown.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the daytime
Friday before increasing low clouds and precipitation working in
from the south lead to degraded conditions.
Surface high pressure will pass across northern Nebraska with a
return to southeasterly and then southerly flow. An increasing
LLJ will produce some LLWS concerns in addition to gusty winds
at both terminals. Resultant moisture advection will also
support rapidly lowering CIGs with IFR/LIFR expected across
portions of southwest and central Nebraska, and MVFR further
north and west. While light rain/drizzle is possible with this
activity, confidence is limited with HREF probabilities of
measurable rain limited to around 10-15% and so will omit from
the forecast at LBF.
Clouds should be slow to break towards the end of the period
and so refinements to timing and magnitude of impacts will
likely be needed with later forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Sunday/Monday...Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Zones 204,
206, 208, and 210. Concern is westerly downsloping winds with
afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s (15-25F above
normal). West winds appear likely to gust in the 25 to 30 mph range
but it`ll require deep mixing to achieve this. Forecast soundings
show sub 20 knot winds below h6 (3km AGL) so any reduction in mixing
heights could lead to weaker winds and limit overall concern. Given
afternoon highs above normal with mid 20s dew points, afternoon
humidity values should fall below 20% for all locations and below
15% for areas west of Highway 183. Poor humidity recovery appears
likely with westerly winds continuing into the overnight. Mild
temperatures and low to middle 20s dew points will only support peak
recovery around 45-65%. This will quickly segway into renewed
concerns on Monday. Winds appear to be slightly weaker, even as
temperatures and humidity forecasts remain fairly steady. This
limits confidence in coverage and magnitude of main concerns. For
now, believe northern 204 and wester 206/208 will be the areas to
watch for Monday with 20 mph winds or weaker elsewhere.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NEZ204-206-208-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion