038
FXUS63 KLBF 132038
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler daytime highs in the upper 50s to low 60s through
Friday.

- Increased widespread precipitation chances late Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday morning across western and north central
Nebraska.

- Increasing confidence in frost/freeze potential Friday and
Saturday morning.

- Warmer, drier conditions expected to return this weekend
  through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low stratus clouds continue to linger over most of western and north
central Nebraska today. As a result of this, highs have remained in
the low to mid 50s today. This low cloud deck should remain through
most of the evening tonight along with breezy north northeasterly
winds. Any clearing tonight along with weaker winds near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border, particularly across Sheridan and Cherry
counties, will allow for temperatures to quickly drop out to
mid to low 30s. This could lead to some areas seeing isolated
frost development, however confidence remains low for this.
Slightly stronger winds further south should keep temperatures
outside of frost concerns.

An upper trough will cross the Rockies, reaching the Front Range by
tomorrow evening, creating southwest flow aloft. This will
coincide with strong surface cyclogenesis developing across
southeastern Colorado, promoting increasing isentropic lifting.
This will lead to increasing precipitation chances as the low
pivots towards southwest Nebraska tomorrow evening. The timeline
for precipitation chances still looks to take place between
late Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday
morning. There appears to be some threat for embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow evening over southwest to central
Nebraska, where guidance is in good agreement for meager MUCAPE
in the range of 150 - 300 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

As mentioned above, an active weather pattern will continue into
Thursday. The upper low will continue to move eastward into South
Dakota, potentially putting the area into a dry slot by the
afternoon. Nevertheless, there is increasing confidence that most
locations could see up to at least a half inch of rainfall, with
some locations along and north of I80 in the Sandhills having a 30
to 50 percent chance of receiving an inch total. The longer
duration of this system should mostly preclude any potential
flooding concerns, but will be watched closely, particularly
along the I80 region as the event takes shape.

By Thursday afternoon, the precipitation should begin to push out of
the area. Wanted to mention a possibility of some isolated fire
weather concerns in northern Sheridan and northwestern Cherry
counties, as far south of McKelvie National Forest where
humidity could drop to 30 - 40 percent overlapped with 35 to 40
mph wind gusts. This will all be dependent on exactly where the
dry slotting takes place as well as how long any precipitation
lingers into the afternoon.

As the upper trough moves off to the east into the Midwest region,
strong upper ridging will return across the Pacific Northwest. With
this ridge, cold air advection will ride south with northerly flow
aloft out of Canada and push a much colder, drier airmass into the
Northern Plains. This airmass will arrive to our region late
Thursday night to early Friday morning. This will plunge low
temperatures into the low 30s across most of the CWA with the
eastern Panhandle potentially dropping to the upper 20s. While
Saturday morning could see lows in the low to mid 30s across the
region. With these widespread low temperatures, confidence in
Frost/Freeze headlines grows with each forecast cycle. Opted to wait
for this forecast cycle to see if the trend continues to hold but
have added frost Friday morning to highlight this concern. Stay
tuned for the latest information on frost/freeze potential.

Switching gears to the weekend and early next week, the upper ridge
continues to move across the Rockies and into the Plains by Saturday
afternoon. this will bring daytime highs back into the upper 60s to
low 70s across western and north central Nebraska through the early
next week. Depending on how the precipitation system fairs from
earlier in the week, will better determine the potential severity
for any fire weather concerns through the weekend. As it stands now,
 areas west of Hwy 83 is highlighted for the potential of some
elevated fire weather concerns where locations could see humidity
drop as low as 25 percent Saturday afternoon. This will have some
overlap with strong southerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Stratus remains across most of western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon, bringing widespread MVFR and low end VFR conditions.
The stratus deck is expected to persist through most of the
afternoon, with some greater breaking in the evening, providing a
window of VFR conditions. Overnight, another round of stratus builds
in, bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings through the morning. Winds out of
the north to northeast should remain strong enough to prevent fog
development overnight. Will still need to keep an eye on
precipitation chances near the end of the TAF period, as steady
rainfall is expected on Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion