243
FXUS63 KLBF 091856
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
156 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures and gusty west winds will lead
  to critical fire weather conditions, with a Red Flag Warning
  in effect until 8 PM CDT.

- Light rain will transition to light snow Tuesday night across north
  central Nebraska. At this time, accumulations are expected to
  remain light.

- Critical fire weather conditions are increasingly likely on Thursday
  due to a combination of much able normal temperatures, strong
  west winds and very low relative humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Rest of this afternoon, A weak cold front moves into north central
Nebraska and has stall out. This will keep winds light and variable
for areas east of Cody through Broken Bow through the afternoon.
Across the western Sandhills, westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with
gusts from 30 to 40 mph are expected. The Red Flag Warning remains
in effect until 8 pm CDT across much of western Nebraska

A cold front is forecast to move into the northwest Sandhills this
evening  and through the remainder of the area overnight. Northerly
winds behind the front will gust to 20-25 mph for a few hours. Lows
tonight from the low 30s far southeast, to low to mid 20s northwest
Sandhills.

Highs Tuesday will be cooler from the upper 40s to low 50s north, to
the mid 50 to low 60s south. A northeast wind 10 to 20 mph will
become east to northeast 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon. An upper
trough will move into eastern MT and eastern WY during the
afternoon. This will bring low chances for rain showers to the
northwest Sandhills late afternoon.

Tuesday night, a reinforcing cold front will drop quickly south. Mid
level frontogenesis in the H7-H5 layer will drop southeast, an
provide a period of lift for 3-5 hours. Soundings indicate once the
low levels saturate sufficiently, any light rain initially will
quickly transition to light snow. The latest forecast has
increased POPs to 60-80 percent, and a slight increase in QPFS
as the HREF members are included. Snowfall amounts to a half
inch are possible near and north of Highway 20. Impacts at this
time appear low.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Cooler Wednesday from the upper 40s to lower 50s, on the backside of
the upper trough with strong surface high pressure building in. A
northwest wind 15 to 30 mph. A very dry airmass with dewpoints
falling to around 10 above in the afternoon. Despite the cooler
temperatures, low humidity and gusty winds will bring elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions.

Thursday, a brief, strong warmup into the 70s. A clipper system
crossing North Dakota will push a cold front south through much of
South Dakota. To the south, across western and north central
Nebraska, strong westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph
are possible across the western Sandhills. Windy with gusts 30 to 40
mph possible further east across the remainder of the area. Another
day of much above normal highs in the upper 60 to mid 70s. In fact,
highs could be even warmer, as the NBM 50th percentile has highs
about 5 degrees warmer from the low 70s to upper 70s. At this time,
critical fire conditions appear likely, with SPC Fire Weather
Outlook forecasting a 70 percent or greater probability of critical
fire weather occurring. Further details can be found in the Fire
Weather Section below.

A cold front will push through Thursday night, with highs Friday
expected to contrast from the low 50s far northeast to upper 70s far
southwest. Another warmup Saturday ahead of another cold front, with
highs from the mid 60s to upper 70s. Confidence in highs Friday and
Saturday is below normal.

Sunday will be colder in the mid 30s to upper 40s, as the upper
trough amplifies across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Highs warm to
the low 40s to mid 50s Monday.

Precipitation chances mainly centered on Saturday through Sunday,
mainly from light snow. The latest models do not suggest any
significant systems, so much of the area can expect little if any
measurable amount of snowfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday morning
across western and north central Nebraska. West to southwest
winds, with gusts of 20 to 30kts across the western Sandhills,
with gusts to 20kts at KLBF. Winds to remain light and variable
at KVTN this afternoon. Winds briefly weaken from the south this
evening, before a cold front moves through after sunset. North
wind gusts of 20 to 25kts can be expected with its passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon and
early evening across western Nebraska, with critical fire conditions
possible Wednesday, and especially Thursday...

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for western Nebraska (Zones
204, 206, and 210). Westerly winds will remain gusty across the
western Sandhills, especially near and west of Highway 61. Combined
with low humidity and warm temperatures in the low to mid 70s,
critical fire weather conditions will continue.

Critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday as gusty
northwest winds from 15 to 30 mph combine with low dewpoints near 10
above. Despite cooler highs from upper 40s to lower 50s, afternoon
humidity could reach 15 to 20 percent across all fire districts.

Near record temperatures quickly return to the area by Thursday,
with increasing concerns for critical fire weather conditions.
These temperatures in the 70s to low 80s will combine with dry
air to push relative humidity values into the teens Thursday
afternoon. Most concerning, strong west winds look to develop
across western Nebraska into the Sandhills as well, with gusts as
high as 45 to 55 miles per hour possible, and gust from 30 to 40 mph
further east. This points towards a very concerning setup for large
and rapid fire spread. At this time, critical fire conditions appear
likely, with SPC Fire Weather Outlook forecasting a 70 percent or
greater probability of critical fire weather occurring. Trends will
need to be monitored very closely and future fire weather headlines
may be needed across much of western and north central Nebraska on
Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion