073
FXUS63 KLBF 272315
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Falling temperatures will allow for rain to transition to snow across
our western zones with 40-50% of brief, minor impacts mainly
for the western Sandhills into eastern Panhandle late Monday
into Tuesday morning.
- Following cooler temperatures Tuesday with highs in the
40s/50s, or 15-20F below normal, temperatures moderate with
seasonable values Wednesday-Friday and a return to 70s by the
weekend.
- Spotty precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday will favor
southwest Nebraska with 50-70% potential for measurable
moisture each day before dry conditions resume this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
This afternoon, northerly flow with modest cold air advection (CAA)
continued across western Nebraska. This was behind a departing cold
front and passing surface high pressure. CAA peaked early this
morning and has since waned slightly. This and some breaks in the
clouds have allowed temperatures over the western Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Meanwhile, upper 30s to lower 40s are expected for areas that fail
to clear out. Winds remain gusty, ranging from 25 to 35 mph out of
the north, holding "feels-like" temperatures in the 30s for our
northern zones all day.
For tonight, surface high pressure will settle south out of the
Dakotas and lead to decreasing and variable winds overnight. At the
same time, a shortwave disturbance will cross the Central Rockies
and bring renewed precipitation chances to portions of western
Nebraska. The latest HREF guidance shows more expansive
probabilities with a slight increase in mean QPF output. Leaned on
this for PoPs with further upward nudges from NAM Nest/HRRR output.
This paints low-end PoPs arriving this evening, increasing further
to around 75-85% for the Sandhills into portions of southwest
Nebraska by late morning. Sounding show top-down saturation through
the overnight, suggesting a rain becoming rain/snow if not all snow
closer to daybreak Tuesday. Strong lift via DCVA and increasing low-
end fgen centered around h7 will promote strong lift. Precipitation
intensity may be moderate to high, leading to some visibility issues
for our western zones. HREF probabilities of measurable snowfall
with less than 1SM visibility tops out around 40-50% for areas west
of Highway 83, with greater probabilities near the Pine Ridge
exceeding 70%. While HREF ensemble maximum snowfall shows a few
bands of snow exceeding 1", probability matched mean output shows
much lighter amounts. Given antecedent warmth and marginal overnight
temperatures, am inclined to align with the lower outputs and the
going forecast calls for a half inch or less of snow. This will
likely be limited to grassy surfaces. Even so, folks traveling
Tuesday morning across the Sandhills down south towards I-80 should
be mindful of heavier bursts leading to some visibility issues and
perhaps brief slushy accumulations. Overall though, liquid rain and
melted snow totaled together will likely surpass 0.25" for many and
approach 0.50" for some thus bringing some beneficial moisture to
areas running some of the more significant deficits in the state.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...precipitation potential will linger into the
daytime. With ample ice nuclei and a slow warmup to the day,
expecting at least a rain/snow mix if not all snow to persist
through the morning hours. As precipitation wanes in the afternoon,
a transition back to mostly rain appears likely as daytime highs
climb to similar levels seen Monday: upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds
will favor the south with speeds largely at or below 20 mph. In
collaboration with neighboring offices, opted to include a mention
of patchy fog Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This coincides
with high pressure passing through but timing/placement differences
lead to fairly large spreads in short-term solutions. HREF/SREF
outputs highlight different areas with greatest < 1SM visibility
probabilities but there appears enough overlap to introduce a patchy
fog mention. It is possible with later forecasts for the placement
to be refined some more, including some removal and additions, so
stay tuned. With the cooler temperatures as lows fall closer to 30F,
believe some isolated slick spots favoring elevated surfaces could
develop so folks are again advised to use caution is traveling late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Wednesday/Thursday...Broad upper-level troughing will extend south
from western Ontario through the Great Lakes. A period of prolonged
northwesterly flow will reside over the Central and Northern Plains
as a result. Overall this will allow temperatures to return to +/-
5F seasonable norms for the region. Precipitation potential will
continue as various impulses traverse the area. Flow will amplify as
elongated troughing will deepen from the Central Rockies southwest
through the Sonoran Desert. Upper-level dynamics will remain to the
south of Nebraska and this lines up with greatest NBM QPF
probabilities. Even so, around 20-30% potential for seeing > 0.10"
does work into our far southwest zones so will maintain the
inherited PoPs with the exception of limiting to Chance mention for
Thursday (up to 54%). Though precipitation will favor rain the
majority of the time, overnight cooling may introduce
brief/localized areas of a rain/snow mix. At this time, no impacts
are expected from this potential.
Friday into early next week...shortwave troughing will traverse the
Southern Plains during the day Friday. Shortwave ridging will
quickly develop across the Intermountain West with subsequent height
rises expanding across the High Plains by late Friday. This should
lead to a break from recurring rain chances in time for the weekend.
Temperatures rebound nicely, climbing from 60s on Friday to 70s for
both Saturday and Sunday. While this may introduce low afternoon
humidities for portions of the area, marginal winds and uncertainty
on fuel status limits concerns at this time. Mid-range guidance
begins to diverge by early next week as a mid-level cutoff low takes
shape near the West Coast and a more pronounced upper-level system
dives south out of central Canada. Timing and impacts remain low
confidence, however, the outlook tends to favor more seasonable
temperatures returning thanks to at least a glancing blow from the
cooler, Canadian airmass. Given the proximity of the upper-level
disturbance, a continuation of at least low-end precipitation
chances appears probable though no signals indicating a more
prolific rainfall event are apparent at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026
Scattered rain showers will move back into southwest Nebraska and
the western Sandhills after Midnight CT. Precipitation will start
off as rain, but will slowly transition over to a rain/snow mix as
temperatures drop to near freezing. Visibility restrictions down to
3 miles or less will be possible through Tuesday morning. Any frozen
precipitation will change back to all rain by late morning with
isolated to scattered showers continuing into the afternoon hours.
Precipitation will gradually diminish after 00Z Wednesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion