604
FXUS63 KLBF 131150
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected today and
  Saturday across southwest Nebraska, leading to areas of
  elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- A passing low pressure system followed by a strong cold front
  will lead to the threat for light accumulating snow and 45-55
  mph wind gusts.

- Much colder temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday with
  below normal afternoon highs.

- Much warmer temperatures and increased fire weather concerns
  arrive next week as strong high pressure develops over the
  southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A noticeable temperature gradient is expected across the region
today, with much warmer temperatures across southwest Nebraska and
cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska. In the wake of a
cold front, temperatures across north central Nebraska remain fairly
cool today, but generally around seasonal averages in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Across the Sandhills, temperatures in the 50s to lower
60s are expected. However, across southwest Nebraska, a nose of
warm, downslope flow is expected this afternoon. This will bring
another round of well above average temperatures across southwest
Nebraska, with highs in the lower 70s, nearly 20 degrees above
average. As with yesterday, the higher temperatures and lack of
recent moisture will allow for lower relative humidity across the
southwest Nebraska, with afternoon relative humidity values less
than 20 percent. As for winds, expecting that portions of southwest
Nebraska will be on the eastern most extent of some of the stronger
westerly winds, so there may be a few hours of westerly winds of 20
to 25 mph gusting up to 35 mph.

With this combination of warm, dry, and possibly windy conditions,
expecting that elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
once again possible across southwest Nebraska and southern portions
of the Panhandle. Current thinking is the greatest risk for elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions will mainly be south and
west of a Hayes Center to Ogallala to Oshkosh line, mainly fire
weather zones 210 and southern 204. By the evening, expecting winds
to become less gusty as a strong low level inversion develops across
southwest Nebraska.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies track across the region Friday night,
with most of the cloud cover expected across northern Nebraska.
While the greater cloud cover would generally be associated with the
warmer lows, this will be an interesting set up. Across northern
Nebraska, where greater cloud cover is expected, expecting to see
cooler lows, with overnight lows in the 20s. This will also support
better overnight humidity recovery, bringing overnight humidity
around 70 to 80 percent. Across southwest Nebraska, despite clearer
skies, warm air advection is expected to continue. This is expected
to keep overnight lows just above freezing, in the low to mid 30s.
This warmer, drier air will also bring poor overnight humidity
recovery, with overnight humidity only climbing to 50 percent.

For Saturday, a stronger push of warm air advection is expected over
a greater portion of the region, bringing slightly warmer across
most of the region. Still expecting slightly cooler temperatures
across north central Nebraska, with highs generally in the low to
mid 50s. Across the Sandhills, temperatures reach into the 60s, with
highs in the low to mid 70s across southwest Nebraska. This will
once again see afternoon humidity values dropping into the 15 to 25
percent range across southwest Nebraska and the Panhandle. However,
with slightly stronger downslope flow Saturday, expecting stronger
west winds to push further east, covering most areas west of Highway
83. West winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, with peak gusts up to
35 mph. This combination once again brings elevated to near critical
fire weather concerns across the region. Will be closely monitoring
forecast trends in the next few forecast cycles to determine whether
fire weather headlines may be needed.

Saturday night, a low pressure system tracks across Nebraska,
bringing chances for precipitation across the region. However,
latest guidance continues with the previous forecast trends, which
track precipitation further north. Best precipitation chances appear
well to the north, with rain and snow showers across portions of
South Dakota. For the North Platte forecast region, the best chances
will be mainly along the Highway 20 corridor. At this time, guidance
continues to suggest than any precipitation we do get will be on the
lighter end. In fact, high resolution guidance suggests this will
generally be one tenth of an inch or less. With the cooler
temperatures Saturday night, this brings a chance for precipitation
to fall as snow. Again, most guidance suggests highest amounts
across South Dakota, but could see 1-2 inches along far northern
Nebraska. Will continue to keep an eye on this, but if the current
forecast trends keep up, we could miss out on any meaningful
moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Sunday/Sunday Night...zonal flow early on will give way to a more
pronounced shortwave diving southeast along the Northern Rockies and
into the Central High Plains by early Sunday. Surface low will cross
southwest Nebraska with a strong cold front quickly behind it.
Strong cold air advection (CAA) will allow temperatures to crater.
NBM shows fairly good agreement on magnitude of cold with < 5F
standard deviation values across the area. Forecast highs will range
from middle 20s to upper 30s from north to south. With the strong
CAA and rapid pressure rises behind the front, am concerned about
the potential for strong to severe wind gusts once again. BUFKIT
soundings show steep lapse rates in the lowest 1km with h85 flow
nearing 50 knots. NBM paints 90% probabilities for exceeding 34 knot
(39 mph) gusts with 50-80% of reaching 48 knot (55 mph gusts). Will
need to closely monitor this potential going forward. Precipitation
potential will largely favor northern Nebraska in closer proximity
to any wrap around moisture as the h5 low crosses western Nebraska.
Precipitation will fall as snow as the CAA continues to thrust the
thermal profile left into greater cold. NBM suggests 50%+ potential
for seeing 1" or more snow along and north of a Gordon to Bartlett
line, with rapid decreases further south. Precipitation should
largely be over by late Sunday night as upper-level disturbance
shifts east towards the Mississippi Valley and mid-level heights
fill on downstream of strengthening ridge.

Monday and beyond...upper-level ridging across the western CONUS
will dominate the extended forecast period. ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index is beginning to highlight late next week for anomalous warmth
thanks to aforementioned high pressure to the west. Monday will
begin the modest warm up though to what magnitude remains somewhat
in question. NBM shows reasonable spread/low confidence and focuses
mainly across areas that serve the greatest potential of seeing at
least light snow accumulations. For now, have values ranging from
the middle 20s northeast to middle 40s southwest but some wavering
in future forecasts will certainly be possible. Morning wind chills
will likely fall below zero but should fall short of warranting any
headlines at this time. We see a very quick bump in temperatures by
Tuesday, lasting through the following weekend. Outside of some
light precipitation potential on Tuesday, the extended forecast is
largely dry and with a return to above normal temperatures, expect
fire weather concerns to dominate the storyline. Heights aloft will
peak by late Tuesday into Wednesday with NAEFS output suggesting
near climatological maximums for h2 and h5 heights over southern
California. This sphere of influence will extend further east with
each passing day Wednesday through Friday. This will coincide with
very warm temperatures as NBM median output for daytime highs
surpasses the 90s in southwest Nebraska Thursday/Friday and into the
weekend. A quick look at record highs across the area show many
locations still only in the middle to upper 80s. Should the heat
wave pan out as advertises, we could see the potential for a stretch
of record heat across much of the region during this timeline.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Aviation concerns today will be about the late morning wind
shift with afternoon gusty winds and brief period of LLWS
tonight. Weak high pressure will pass to the south and
light/variable winds this morning will become more southerly
this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots likely, strongest
across north central Nebraska into the Sandhills. A brief period
of LLWS will exist for both terminals late tonight before more
variable winds set up with speeds around 10 knots through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Dry conditions are likely to continue for much of western Nebraska
until late Saturday at the earliest and outside of north central
Nebraska, little potential for wetting snow/rain equivalent is
expected.

Elevated to near-critical conditions are again expected each day
Friday and Saturday, favoring far southern Zone 204 into Zone 210.
Strong westerly winds will nose into the areas from the Panhandle
with afternoon highs climbing into the 70s. At this time, confidence
in seeing sufficient overlap of strong wind gusts and critical
humidity precludes headlines for Friday. Saturday appears much more
impressive and will require close monitoring with later forecasts
for the potential need of fire weather headlines.

Beginning as early as Tuesday but more likely on Wednesday, much
warmer temperatures are expected to return to much of the Central
Plains. Broad upper-level ridge will stall across the Desert
Southwest with influence from the high pressure aloft reaching the
Central Plains. West-northwest flow along the northern periphery of
this feature will support and influx of dry air and increased fire
weather concerns for the latter half of next week. Record highs
appear possible with some signals for upper 80s to middle 90s, or
30F+ above normal for mid-March. Folks should closely monitor later
forecasts for up-to-date information.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion