356
FXUS63 KLBF 200622
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
122 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday will be the hottest day of the week, with a heat advisory
  in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

- An isolated chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and overnight.

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday with a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms late Tuesday night.

- Confidence increasing for a widespread wetting rainfall Wednesday
  into Wednesday night.

- Heat begins to return Friday through Sunday with mainly dry
  conditions expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Short Term (Today through Tuesday night): The main concern in
the short term will once again be the extreme heat today along
with isolated thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon/evening and
again in the overnight. There will also be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms late Tuesday night.

As for the extreme temperatures today, the upper level high will
remain situated in place across much of the western and central
CONUS. Today will be the warmest day of the week with strong WAA
this afternoon, with 850 temps around 30 to 33 degrees out
ahead of a cold front. High temperatures will be in the upper
90s to low 100s today. Did make a slight adjustment to dewpoints
for today across much of the area as latest models showed an
increase in moisture to the area thus blended to the higher
moisture models as current dewpoints in the overnight were
already exceeding the forecast, increased dewpoints several
degrees this morning and afternoon. The combination of high sfc
temps and high dewpoints will lead to heat indices exceeding 98
degrees, thus a Heat Advisory is in place for all of western and
north central Nebraska through early evening.

As for thunderstorm chances today, there will be essential two
rounds of potential for isolated thunderstorms. The first will be
this afternoon as the advancing cold front moves southward and
briefly stalls across portions of the Sandhills, wherever the front
stalls will become the focus for initial thunderstorm development
this afternoon. Storms should be isolated to widely scattered, there
could be a strong storm that develops with a more robust storm. CAPE
values will be around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, but shear will lacking,
only around 25 to 30 kts of deep layer shear. There will also be a
fairly strong cap in place in the afternoon as well. The main
hazards with storms that do develop will generally be lightning,
gusty winds and potentially small hail. The second round of storms
will be an isolated chance of development overnight as a weak LLJ
kicks in and could see the potential for isolated storm
development in the overnight to early Tuesday morning. The
greatest potential for storm development overnight will be
across the Sandhills.

As for Tuesday, temperatures will be slightly cooler with the
passage of the cold front, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A
weak shortwave trof will advance eastward late Tuesday night into
Wednesday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the
overnight, at this time thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Wednesday...The upper ridge center will be across north Texas with
upper ridging into the Intermountain West. An upper trough will
extend across the Great Lakes. This will place western Nebraska in
northwest flow aloft. Surface low pressure is forecast to be across
southeast Colorado. A disturbance will move across southern South
Dakota and Nebraska, bringing likely POPs to north central Nebraska
and portions of southwest and central Nebraska. NBM 12hr
probabilities for greater than 0.25 inch is from 30 to 60 percent
across portions of north central into central NE during the day.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning...a disturbance in the western
NE panhandle will move eastward Wednesday night. With a fairly moist
atmosphere and an increasing H85 low level jet, this will bring
another good opportunity for scattered to widespread wetting
rainfall. Likely to categorical POPs for Wednesday night. NBM 12hr
hour probabilities for greater than 0.25 inches is from 50 to 65
percent across the Sandhills between Valentine and North Platte into
central Nebraska. The GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian ensembles all support
wetting rain across this same general area.

Another period of chance POPs Thursday afternoon into Thursday night
as a disturbance in west-northwesst flow aloft moves across the
region.   The upper ridge is forecast to build eastward into the
region Friday through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions, although
isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday from the upper 70s to low 80s north
central to the upper 80s to near 90 southwest. Friday should see
highs close to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s west, with heat
returning to the 90s Saturday and upper 90s to near 100 Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours. Winds
will remain breezy out of the south overnight around 13 kts
with gusts up to 22kts. Winds will then begin to switch to the
north in the late morning and afternoon for areas of the
central and northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska with
a frontal passage. Where the front stalls tomorrow there will be
the potential for some isolated thunderstorms. At this time
have left the mention out of the KLBF TAF as uncertainty
remains on the placement of the front and location of any
thunderstorms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ004>010-026>029-094.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion