731
FXUS63 KLBF 091746
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in place for areas
  west of Highway 83 Thursday afternoon/evening with large hail
  and damaging wind gusts the main concern.

- Some lingering light rain and general thunderstorms are
  possible on Friday as upper-level troughing remains close by,
  but no severe weather is expected.

- Turning much warmer this weekend with a prolonged period of
  above normal temperatures likely for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Early morning rain and thunderstorms continue to percolate across
western and southwest Nebraska. This is occurring within low-level
convergence from residual outflows stemming from late Wednesday
night convection. Additional thunderstorms developing off the Black
Hills may threaten our northwest zones and be capable of strong
outflow winds along with some heavy rain but longevity into western
Nebraska is in question so will keep the forecast dry in the predawn
hours for these locations. With high pressure nosing in, expect
temperatures to fall to the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Thursday/Thursday Night...high pressure will shift east into the
upper Mississippi Valley and allow east southeasterly flow to resume
across the local area. Outside of areas that see recycled air from
Wednesday night central Nebraska thunderstorms, should see a narrow
plume of richer moisture/theta-e that will work upslope into the
southern Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Afternoon
highs should manage to reach the middle 80s for most and upper 80s
for some. By mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms should form on the
nose of this moisture tongue previously mentioned as it encounters a
subtle converging line near or just east of the Nebraska/Wyoming
border. Earlier activity is possible off the Pine Ridge into far
southern Black Hills should this better moisture nose a bit further
north. In either event, believe thunderstorms should be ongoing by
mid-afternoon near the Highway 71 corridor with eastward progression
allowing activity to reach the local area. While moderate instability
should develop to the west, this will decrease fairly rapidly with
eastward extent due to a combination of poor mid-level lapse rates
and more limited low-level moisture. Thus, while deep-layer shear is
stronger as one goes east, the waning instability and increasing low-
level capping will inhibit thunderstorm potential for areas east of
Highway 83. Consecutive runs of the HREF show this outcome well with
measurable rainfall probabilities peaking between Highway 385 and
Highway 61 but quickly decreasing as it approaches Highway 83
towards Midnight. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas generally along and west of Highway 83
but only a marginal for an additional ~50 miles further east. This
aligns well with the forecast so no adjustments appear necessary.
Beneficial rainfall appears possible for some locations. NBM output
shows 50%+ potential for 0.25" or more rainfall through late evening
but shows that hard decline on the east side aligning with the
Highway 83 corridor. Believe spotty 0.75" or higher amounts are
possible and should favor southwest Nebraska. Lows will fall into
the middle 50s west to middle 60s east.

Friday/Friday Night...a secondary weak meso high will cross
southwest Nebraska with variable winds early in the day. Aloft, more
pronounced shortwave troughing with associated height falls will
quickly translate east towards the middle Missouri Valley. Though
heights will climb during the latter half of the day locally, the
proximity to the main h5 trough with ample moisture supports at
least a continuation of light rain/general thunderstorm chances
early in the day but diminishing towards the evening. NAM12 guidance
suggests generally dry conditions from mid-afternoon on and HREF
probabilities are in agreement with this. Will keep the 15-18% PoPs
populated from the model blend but should this drier trend hold
firm, these will likely be removed with subsequent forecasts.
Temperatures aloft remain warm with h85 values in the lower to
middle 20s degC and this should allow for near seasonable
temperatures even with the lack of stronger boundary layer mixing.
Forecast highs range from middle 80s south to lower 90s in the far
north. While no precipitation is anticipated in the late evening,
lingering low-level humidity should limit overnight lows to the
lower 60s for all. These are near to slightly above normal for
middle July.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026


Saturday into Next Week...much warmer temperatures remain on track
as amplifying ridge upstream will spill over the Continental Divide
and onto the High Plains. High pressure will build aloft, initially
over the Four Corners region early Saturday to central South Dakota
by late Sunday night as h5 heights approach 600 dam. ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index highlights anomalous daytime highs each day Sunday
through Wednesday, though most of the anomalies remain across the
Central Rockies up through South Dakota and only skirt the area.
This coincides reasonably well with where greatest h5 height
anomalies are found with h2 and h5 geopotential heights reaching
climatological maximums over the Dakotas and much of Minnesota by
early Monday. This will effectively stymie any rain potential for
the period, giving us hot/dry/windy conditions. It`s worth noting
that NBM percentile output has backed off on the expected heat
modestly with median values largely holding in the middle 90s now
for areas south of the Sandhills while locations along the NE/SD
border saw climbs to upper 90s and triple digits, namely Valentine.
Overall thinking is largely unchanged: expect heat, potentially
significant heat, to establish itself across the Central Plains
early next week and persist through the middle of the week at least.
Though only showing subtly in NBM output, ridge breakdown should
begin sometime Wednesday/Thursday and this may force a cool front
south through the area and lead to more seasonable temperatures for
the late week...at least briefly. Broad upper-ridging will likely
remain across much of the southern CONUS and could build north into
the area again by late week. Overall, the cooler signal for
Wednesday which is now shown by both deterministic ECMWF/GFS
solutions, remains limited confidence but seems reasonable given
expected upper-level evolution around that time. Until finer details
can be sorted out, stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A line of thunderstorms will move eastward across the area this
evening. The threat with these storms will be locally strong
gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail, with
surface winds light outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion